Brexit

[Gill W]

Six weeks to go, and still we don't know on what terms we will be leaving the EU



Apart from zealots like the ERG and random blokes on the interest, the concencus opinion that any Brexit will be damaging to the UK, and a no deal Brexit will be catastrophic.

Gill, the twitter remainers might project this consensus, although I suspect they would prefer the infamous people vote. But I think there might still be a majority in the country who favour leaving, but I agree most would like to leave with a deal to ensure there is a smooth transition.

Based on general trends, it appears the majority is currently to remain

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-pol ... l-results/

[Mervyn and Trish]

Which is what the polls said before the only vote that actually counted, where there was no "don't know" option.

[towny44]

Six weeks to go, and still we don't know on what terms we will be leaving the EU



Apart from zealots like the ERG and random blokes on the interest, the concencus opinion that any Brexit will be damaging to the UK, and a no deal Brexit will be catastrophic.

Gill, the twitter remainers might project this consensus, although I suspect they would prefer the infamous people vote. But I think there might still be a majority in the country who favour leaving, but I agree most would like to leave with a deal to ensure there is a smooth transition.

Based on general trends, it appears the majority is currently to remain

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-pol ... l-results/

That all depends on where you source your data from Gill.

[Manoverboard]

Have you ever held a position of high office Gill ?

Our hard working chum Teresa is doubtless winging her way to Brussels to continue with the negotiations regarding the backstop. She has had previous experience of negotiating with the EU so is alert to their dark arts and eleventh hour fudges.

Six weeks is tons of time, keep cool and try to enjoy the final hours.

But she's not continuing negotiations, is she? As I've said numerous times, the Brexit deal was signed off in November. The EU are steadfastly saying they will not re-start negotiations, and we haven't come up with anything new, so there's nothing to renegotiate anyway. We are stuck in the same place we've been stuck, for weeks and weeks.

I'm sorry to say I think you are deluding yourself if you think there's going to be some sort an 11th hour roll over by the EU. It realistically isn't going to happen.

I'm not sure why anybody would be enjoying the current situation

You insist that the Brexit deal was signed off in November … if it was then we couldn't leave without a deal could we ?

To leave in an orderly manner we need to retain the option of a ' No Deal ' as it will focus the minds of the EU that they need to agree a way of resolving the backstop situation. How it is to be achieved is yet to be determined and / or announced but either way it will not be via the Media or Twitter. Meanwhile Parliament will play its strategic games but at the appropriate time there will be a vote that the ' ayes ' will win.

We will see in due course who is delusional and who is hanging on by a thread hoping that the problem goes away.

[Gill W]

The deal WAS signed off in November and now needs ratification in U.K. parliament (because parliament is sovereign and we’ve never lost sovereignty). If they don’t ratify it, and nothing else happens, we leave without a deal.

In order for the EU to agree to the backstop being changed, it’s up to us to think of something new, and it’s just not happening.

I genuinely don’t see how the WA can be changed when we have nothing new to suggest.

The WA was voted down in a historic defeat. As there will be no changes to the WA, they’ll have to vote on an unchanged proposition. It’ll be the best come back since Lazarus for this to be turned around.

We will indeed see who is right, and very soon.

Not sure what hanging on by a thread means though

[Gill W]

Gill, the twitter remainers might project this consensus, although I suspect they would prefer the infamous people vote. But I think there might still be a majority in the country who favour leaving, but I agree most would like to leave with a deal to ensure there is a smooth transition.

Based on general trends, it appears the majority is currently to remain

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-pol ... l-results/

That all depends on where you source your data from Gill.

I gave you the link which suggests trends over a period of time.

If you have information that suggests that the trend is towards Leave, I’d be interested to see it

[towny44]

Based on general trends, it appears the majority is currently to remain

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-pol ... l-results/

That all depends on where you source your data from Gill.

I gave you the link which suggests trends over a period of time.

If you have information that suggests that the trend is towards Leave, I’d be interested to see it

Gill, re check the data, for if there was another referendum how would you vote. In June 2016, just after the vote there was an 8 point lead for remain and 19% DNK, the Feb 2019 data shows the same 8 point lead for remain with 22% undecided.
I would suggest they are maybe asking the wrong people, or maybe the wrong question.

[barney]

On polls, a lot rides on what question is asked.

[Gill W]

You lot are so funny.

Towny believes the current majority is to leave.

I suggested that it might not be, and illustrated it with a link showing the trends in polls.

Everybody wants to question or deny what the link says, but everybody seems to accept Towny's gut feeling' because it agrees with their confirmation bias

(I hasten to add, Towny is entitled to his gut feeling)

[Jack Staff]

Come on guys, now's you chance. Show us the polls you are looking at that give you so much confidence.

The ones with the questions you want asked, on the day you want them asked.

[Onelife]

Come on guys, now's you chance. Show us the polls you are looking at that give you so much confidence.

The ones with the questions you want asked, on the day you want them asked.

Hi Jack,

There'll be no disputing this one.... it's the one that matters

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ ... alisations

[Jack Staff]

Hi Jack,

There'll be no disputing this one.... it's the one that matters

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ ... alisations

Just a tad out of date.

[Gill W]

Nearly three years out of date. Towny was talking about now

[barney]

Immediately before the 2016 referendum the polls showed 53% for remain and 47% to leave. That's pretty much what it is now on the poll of polls. As I said before it totally depends on what question is asked. A straight remain or leave shows 50/50. So in the event of another vote, it would again be on a knife edge either way. Those looking to reject the original vote will clutch at any straw to convince themselves that they are in the majority.

[Jack Staff]

A straight remain or leave shows 50/50. So in the event of another vote, it would again be on a knife edge either way. Those looking to reject the original vote will clutch at any straw to convince themselves that they are in the majority.

So then, right back at ya kid.

[barney]

A straight remain or leave shows 50/50. So in the event of another vote, it would again be on a knife edge either way. Those looking to reject the original vote will clutch at any straw to convince themselves that they are in the majority.

So then, right back at ya kid.

Which is exactly why it would not be wise to rerun the vote because you didn't like the original verdict. Nothing would be resolved. Once the UK has left the constraints of the EU, lobby to join. That's true democracy.

[towny44]

A straight remain or leave shows 50/50. So in the event of another vote, it would again be on a knife edge either way. Those looking to reject the original vote will clutch at any straw to convince themselves that they are in the majority.

So then, right back at ya kid.

Which is exactly why it would not be wise to rerun the vote because you didn't like the original verdict. Nothing would be resolved. Once the UK has left the constraints of the EU, lobby to join. That's true democracy.

But do it quick Jack, just in case the UK does better than predicted, in which case maybe no one will want to join your parade.

[Jack Staff]

Which is exactly why it would not be wise to rerun the vote because you didn't like the original verdict. Nothing would be resolved. Once the UK has left the constraints of the EU, lobby to join. That's true democracy.

But I do not think it would be 50/50 again.

Back in 2016 people voted for sunlit uplands, £350m, unicorns.
In 2019 they will vote against restricted rights, food shortages, body bags, lack of medicine.

In 2016 you just scraped it with Russian money and lies. 2019 will be different.

[Jack Staff]

But do it quick Jack, just in case the UK does better than predicted, in which case maybe no one will want to join your parade.

Dream on. Just how is that even possible?

[barney]

Week after week, the same old negative lines are trolled out. Things will be a bit different, of that there is no doubt. Better or worse. Time will tell.

[towny44]

But do it quick Jack, just in case the UK does better than predicted, in which case maybe no one will want to join your parade.

Dream on. Just how is that even possible?

You may hate Trump Jack but his action to increase duty on Chinese goods has led to a major improvement in the US economy, a no deal and higher taxes on EU goods might have a similar effect on us. Which I am sue you will ridicule, but really history shows that in economics rarely do the experts get a forecast right.

[Jack Staff]

Week after week, the same old negative lines are trolled out. Things will be a bit different, of that there is no doubt. Better or worse. Time will tell.

So give us some good news.

I am well aware of how we are going to suffer from Brexit. Give us a reason to get behind Brexit, give me some pro's to counteract the con's.

[barney]

Unfortunately I cannot predict the future, Jack. Some think that they can and state opinion as fact. I don't fall into that category.

[Jack Staff]

Unfortunately I cannot predict the future, Jack. Some think that they can and state opinion as fact. I don't fall into that category.

You are saying you can't come up with a benefit of Brexit?

[barney]

Oh Jack! Change the blo'dy record. We've been down this road so many times. You are unfortunately getting extremely boring. Please try a bit harder to engage.