Current Affairs

[oldbluefox]

The criteria, if publishing statistics, should be specific otherwise they are worthless. You cannot include "well they might have died of it or they might not". Either they did or they didn't.

[Onelife]

The criteria, if publishing statistics, should be specific otherwise they are worthless. You cannot include "well they might have died of it or they might not". Either they did or they didn't.

Correct Foxy but these are unprecedent times where best judgment has to override clinical accuracy imo.

[oldbluefox]

All the more reason to issue accurate figures.

[Gill W]

I suggest that, if someone has Covid 19 on their death certificate it is more than likely that Covid 19 played a significant role in their demise

So if you had a positive Covid test last week and you get run over by a bus why are you a Covid statistic?

If someone got run over by a bus, they’d put that as the primary cause of death (or the injuries sustained from the impact). Would they actually include Covid as a cause of death if it had nothing to do with the death? I tend to think not.

The official figures don’t include people who died from Covid reasons if they died more than 28 days after a test.

In any event, how many people test positive for Covid and then are unlucky enough to get hit be a bus within 28 days.

I genuinely don’t understand this thing where people are continually quibbling about the figures. Is it an attempt at reassurance, to try and believe the figures are less than they actually are? That’s the only explanation I can think of, as this quibbling isn’t done with other illnesses

[towny44]

I am of the opinion that the UK statistics are probably the most accurate and comprehensive, maybe even overly inclusive, as compared with most other countries. But I have no idea why our death rate is so high, when we have one of the most advanced health care systems, unless many other countries are not calculating the covid deaths as accurately as we do. Or perhaps it is our high levels of obesity, and possibly our higher air pollution levels that are having a major impact on our death rates.
But distressing as this is, the continuation of the tier system and trying to keep as much of our economy working, and our schools operating normally must be the govts main aim, whilst ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed.

[david63]

I genuinely don’t understand this thing where people are continually quibbling about the figures

It is not "quibbling" but trying to get a level playing field.

One figure that cannot be disputed is the total number of deaths and until we are in a position to analyse those figures from other countries along with ours than we really have no idea how our death rate compares to any other country and even then I suspect that some countries recording of deaths has many shortcomings.

The beauty of statistics is that you can make them say whatever you want them to say to prove any given point.

We keep being bombarded daily with the number of "infections" when in actual fact what is being reported is the number of positive tests - the two are totally different figures. The number of positive tests as a statistic is meaningless in its own right - the more relevant statistic is the number of hospital cases.

[Kendhni]

As someone said to me the other day: 1-in-1000 people in the UK died in 2020 from coronavirus (or at least named on the death certificate)
Scary!!!

Just looking at the latest figures, it is now closer to 1-in-900

[Mervyn and Trish]

I despair. Police in Wales found people from London and other tier four areas at car parks in the Brecon Beacons. It included a group from mixed households travelling in a minibus. As well as breaching England rules they were also of course breaching Welsh no travel rules. Frustratingly police say they have and will issue fixed penalty notices where engagement failed.

I think engagement failed the minute those people got in their cars. For such blatant breaches of the law the £10,000 fine should be automatic. We need to get tough if we're going to contain this thing. They wouldn't have to fine many before word got round.

[Gill W]

The tiers are to be reviewed tomorrow. I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

50,000+ cases reported today ( although probably an element of data catch up.)

Unfortunately, the government have once again delayed too long. More hospital cases are ‘baked in’ to the NHS already at its limit. It’s very serious now.

[barney]

The tiers are to be reviewed tomorrow. I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

50,000+ cases reported today ( although probably an element of data catch up.)

Unfortunately, the government have once again delayed too long. More hospital cases are ‘baked in’ to the NHS already at its limit. It’s very serious now.

100% agree Gill.
If they are governed by the science, then the science says it’s time.

[oldbluefox]

It's been reported today that there has been an increase in mountain rescue callouts in Cumbria to almost double those normally seen at this time of year.. What is even more concerning is that many of those who have been rescued have come from Tier 3 or even Tier 4 areas, including London. Thanks folks!! You weren't supposed to travel and I hope the police throw the book at you. They are not only selfish, not bothered that they could be spreading the virus outside London, but stupid as well to venture out on the fells, placing themselves and ultimately their rescuers in danger.
And we wonder why the virus is spreading but hey, it's easier to blame the government isn't it?

[Jan Rosser]

Same here Foxy - unbelievable how many people cannot understand the rules - no travel means no travel and today some idiots had travelled from London for a day out at the Brecon Beacons and Snowdonia was similarly "invaded". The people they interviewed saw nothing wrong with travelling for some "fresh air"

[Bensham33]

How come they were allowed to travel so far without being stopped by police or army? Surely a mini bus full of people is a bit of a give away. As others have said we must come down hard on these idiots if we are ever to get on top of this thing.

[towny44]

The tiers are to be reviewed tomorrow. I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

50,000+ cases reported today ( although probably an element of data catch up.)

Unfortunately, the government have once again delayed too long. More hospital cases are ‘baked in’ to the NHS already at its limit. It’s very serious now.

100% agree Gill.
If they are governed by the science, then the science says it’s time.

Although common sense says we need to keep as much of the economy operating as we can.

[oldbluefox]

Same here Foxy - unbelievable how many people cannot understand the rules - no travel means no travel and today some idiots had travelled from London for a day out at the Brecon Beacons and Snowdonia was similarly "invaded". The people they interviewed saw nothing wrong with travelling for some "fresh air"

I don't think it's a case of not understanding the rules Jan. They know the rules full well. They have helped spread the virus around the south east and are now happy to spread it elsewhere because they are selfish and care for nobody but themselves. Within a short space of time we have gone from a Tier 2 on the cusp of Tier 1 with all the benefits it brings to the people and local businesses to the likelihood of Tier 3 or worse. Unfortunately it is the selfish few who spoil it (very dangerously) for everybody else.
The government can bring in any tier they like but until people stop thinking only of themselves and their own personal freedoms, or until the police take a stronger line the journey of this virus will continue until vaccinations bring it to an end.

[barney]

My brother lives in Appledore and the house next door to him is owned by a family from Gravesend in Kent.
Up to yesterday, they were there having a Christmas break.
It’s unenforceable to ensure people don’t travel.

[Onelife]

The tiers are to be reviewed tomorrow. I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

50,000+ cases reported today ( although probably an element of data catch up.)

Unfortunately, the government have once again delayed too long. More hospital cases are ‘baked in’ to the NHS already at its limit. It’s very serious now.

Until we disagree, I agree totally

[david63]

I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

What do you mean by "full lockdown"? Do we prevent everyone from leaving their home for any purpose? That would work - those that don't die from starvation would die from freezing to death! Then there would be nobody with the virus.

Where I do agree, and I have said this many times, is with enforcement - just saying "please be good, go home and don't do it again" will never work - round all that break the rules and put them in a compound for the next two weeks.

I see that there is another southern "expert" now saying that the north must go into tier four immediately - was never an issue when the north was in tier three and south in tier two!

[Gill W]

I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

What do you mean by "full lockdown"? Do we prevent everyone from leaving their home for any purpose? That would work - those that don't die from starvation would die from freezing to death! Then there would be nobody with the virus.

Where I do agree, and I have said this many times, is with enforcement - just saying "please be good, go home and don't do it again" will never work - round all that break the rules and put them in a compound for the next two weeks.

I see that there is another southern "expert" now saying that the north must go into tier four immediately - was never an issue when the north was in tier three and south in tier two!

Unfortunately, I think a lockdown to halt infections at the current rate would have to be very stringent, especially as the virus has mutated into a more infectious variant. Only essential workers to work outside of the home. Schools, colleges, universities shut. One person per household to do essential food shopping. Limited outside exercise within small radius of home. Patrols on the streets to randomly challenge people and stop cars. Rule breakers to be fined.

I strongly doubt that the government would go this far, I think we’re just going to go bumbling on to disaster.

By the way, do we really have to have yet another divide?

[Gill W]

I remember, back at the start of the pandemic, we saw some very harrowing footage from hospitals in Italy and Spain, but we’ve never seen anything like this from U.K. hospitals- the coverage has been somewhat sanitised.

I think we need to see the reality of what’s going on in hospitals to shake up the deniers.

[Jan Rosser]

I remember, back at the start of the pandemic, we saw some very harrowing footage from hospitals in Italy and Spain, but we’ve never seen anything like this from U.K. hospitals- the coverage has been somewhat sanitised.

I think we need to see the reality of what’s going on in hospitals to shake up the deniers.

A local hospital the Royal Gwent in Newport filmed a documentary about the covid crisis which was probably only broadcast in Wales. It was filmed by the doctors and nurses inside the intensive care wards and was a real insight into how covid affected them both on the ward and in their personal lives. I watched it and cried at what these amazing people were going through and it is now being repeated again in this latest phase of the epidemic. Those people in denial or who choose to do what they want will not be moved by films like this - they live in their own little world and unless they are directly affected will in my opinion carry on doing as they please. I really don't know what the answer is

[Kendhni]

I remember, back at the start of the pandemic, we saw some very harrowing footage from hospitals in Italy and Spain, but we’ve never seen anything like this from U.K. hospitals- the coverage has been somewhat sanitised.

I think we need to see the reality of what’s going on in hospitals to shake up the deniers.

As Jan says there have been a few documentaries showing the wards and they are very harrowing. I am sure we all know someone who has to work these wards, and I am sure some of them would just like a friendly ear to listen.

[Kendhni]

I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

What do you mean by "full lockdown"? Do we prevent everyone from leaving their home for any purpose? That would work - those that don't die from starvation would die from freezing to death! Then there would be nobody with the virus.

Where I do agree, and I have said this many times, is with enforcement - just saying "please be good, go home and don't do it again" will never work - round all that break the rules and put them in a compound for the next two weeks.

I see that there is another southern "expert" now saying that the north must go into tier four immediately - was never an issue when the north was in tier three and south in tier two!

Unfortunately, I think a lockdown to halt infections at the current rate would have to be very stringent, especially as the virus has mutated into a more infectious variant. Only essential workers to work outside of the home. Schools, colleges, universities shut. One person per household to do essential food shopping. Limited outside exercise within small radius of home. Patrols on the streets to randomly challenge people and stop cars. Rule breakers to be fined.

I strongly doubt that the government would go this far, I think we’re just going to go bumbling on to disaster.

By the way, do we really have to have yet another divide?

I have said before that the softly softly approach has not worked. It is time that the police were incentivised to issue fines. I would also suggest that those who flaunt the law/rules should be denied access to the NHS until this is over and the backlog of waiting lists has been cleared - or alternatively be made to work the COVID wards (they need the staff) and experience what their stupidity and selfishness is putting our healthcare workers through (PPE optional, since they seem to have no fear of it).

[Kendhni]

I think there needs to be a tier 5 for full lockdown and proper enforcement.

What do you mean by "full lockdown"? Do we prevent everyone from leaving their home for any purpose? That would work - those that don't die from starvation would die from freezing to death! Then there would be nobody with the virus.

Where I do agree, and I have said this many times, is with enforcement - just saying "please be good, go home and don't do it again" will never work - round all that break the rules and put them in a compound for the next two weeks.

I see that there is another southern "expert" now saying that the north must go into tier four immediately - was never an issue when the north was in tier three and south in tier two!

We are actually in curfew mode at the minute (announced even prior to this new strain having been found).
I still think that there is something the governments of this world are not telling us about this disease. Unfortunately anytime I try to find anything out all I seem to come up with are conspiracy theories ranging from 'it is a hoax' to 'it is an extinction event'.

[Chalgrave4]

What do you mean by "full lockdown"? Do we prevent everyone from leaving their home for any purpose? That would work - those that don't die from starvation would die from freezing to death! Then there would be nobody with the virus.

Where I do agree, and I have said this many times, is with enforcement - just saying "please be good, go home and don't do it again" will never work - round all that break the rules and put them in a compound for the next two weeks.

I see that there is another southern "expert" now saying that the north must go into tier four immediately - was never an issue when the north was in tier three and south in tier two!

Unfortunately, I think a lockdown to halt infections at the current rate would have to be very stringent, especially as the virus has mutated into a more infectious variant. Only essential workers to work outside of the home. Schools, colleges, universities shut. One person per household to do essential food shopping. Limited outside exercise within small radius of home. Patrols on the streets to randomly challenge people and stop cars. Rule breakers to be fined.

I strongly doubt that the government would go this far, I think we’re just going to go bumbling on to disaster.

By the way, do we really have to have yet another divide?

I have said before that the softly softly approach has not worked. It is time that the police were incentivised to issue fines. I would also suggest that those who flaunt the law/rules should be denied access to the NHS until this is over and the backlog of waiting lists has been cleared - or alternatively be made to work the COVID wards (they need the staff) and experience what their stupidity and selfishness is putting our healthcare workers through (PPE optional, since they seem to have no fear of it).

I wouldn't want those ignorant morons anywhere near me if I was in hospital. I prefer your first suggestion.