Brexit

[Golden Princess]

The boarder issues in Ireland are vitally important. But please dont forget such places as Gibraltar and Anguilla.

Gill, dont worry about Kent - according to the Mail on Sunday 100's of portable lavatories are to be deployed on motorways to be used by lorry drivers caught in gridlock caused by the reintroduction of EU border checks. The secret contract is understood to be one of dozens covered by non-disclosure agreements drawn up between the government and the private sector. Honestly, you just could not make this stuff up!! Surely this cannot be true - how would these toilets be cleaned and emptied if the roads are gridlocked!

[Onelife]

Hello Ken,

First of all, great to hear a different voice on this thread. I remember you wrote some excellent, balanced posts back at the time of the Brexit vote, and I agreed with a lot of the things you said at the time.

Secondly, I'm fairly sure you are in Northern Ireland. What are your feelings about the Irish border question? As I understand it, under the terms of the Good Friday agreement we can't have a hard border between North and South, yet to trade under WTO rules, we have to have a hard border.

Now I hear that Rees-Mogg wants to 'have people inspected as we did during the Troubles.' This all sounds very worrying. I live in Kent, and I'm concerned about my county being turned into a car park - but it doesn't worry me half as much as the Northern Ireland border.

You mentioned you had dual citizenship - if it got too bad, do you think you'd move south of the border, to a relatively sane country?

Hi Gill,

Considering the source you may not want to read this, but.....

https://brexitcentral.com/practical-tec ... sh-border/

Regards

keith

[Onelife]

Not sure that link works...you may have to Google it

brexitcentral.com. com/practical-technical-solutions-can-resoleve-questions-irish-border

[Onelife]

The boarder issues in Ireland are vitally important. But please dont forget such places as Gibraltar and Anguilla.

Gill, dont worry about Kent - according to the Mail on Sunday 100's of portable lavatories are to be deployed on motorways to be used by lorry drivers caught in gridlock caused by the reintroduction of EU border checks. The secret contract is understood to be one of dozens covered by non-disclosure agreements drawn up between the government and the private sector. Honestly, you just could not make this stuff up!! Surely this cannot be true - how would these toilets be cleaned and emptied if the roads are gridlocked!

Hi princess......time to invest in camping portoloo's...essential when you get caught short........l used to get the job of emptying ours.....messy old buisdness

[screwy]

Works for me OL, Good article but are these Experts as clever as the ones Jack listens to.??

[Jack Staff]

Works for me OL, Good article but are these Experts as clever as the ones Jack listens to.??

I got as far as "It is absolutely right there should be no hard border. But who is asking for one? No one." before the BS starts.
It is the Brexiters who want one, but they just blame the EU (as always).

To trade WTO you HAVE to have a border.

No border = CU, simple.

[Gill W]

Hello Ken,

First of all, great to hear a different voice on this thread. I remember you wrote some excellent, balanced posts back at the time of the Brexit vote, and I agreed with a lot of the things you said at the time.

Secondly, I'm fairly sure you are in Northern Ireland. What are your feelings about the Irish border question? As I understand it, under the terms of the Good Friday agreement we can't have a hard border between North and South, yet to trade under WTO rules, we have to have a hard border.

Now I hear that Rees-Mogg wants to 'have people inspected as we did during the Troubles.' This all sounds very worrying. I live in Kent, and I'm concerned about my county being turned into a car park - but it doesn't worry me half as much as the Northern Ireland border.

You mentioned you had dual citizenship - if it got too bad, do you think you'd move south of the border, to a relatively sane country?

Hi Gill,

Considering the source you may not want to read this, but.....

https://brexitcentral.com/practical-tec ... sh-border/

Regards

keith

To do what that article says. It needs a deal of some sort. I saw a 'super Canada' deal mentioned. I'm surprised people are still talking in terms of theses bespoke deals, because it's simply not going to happen. I was specifically talking about a no deal situation, which we still seen to be lurching towards. (I see that there's going to be a no deal crisis cabinet meeting on 13th September)

[Gill W]

The boarder issues in Ireland are vitally important. But please dont forget such places as Gibraltar and Anguilla.

Gill, dont worry about Kent - according to the Mail on Sunday 100's of portable lavatories are to be deployed on motorways to be used by lorry drivers caught in gridlock caused by the reintroduction of EU border checks. The secret contract is understood to be one of dozens covered by non-disclosure agreements drawn up between the government and the private sector. Honestly, you just could not make this stuff up!! Surely this cannot be true - how would these toilets be cleaned and emptied if the roads are gridlocked!

I generally don't pay much heed to the MoS, but I did see that particular report on Twitter, and thought things must be getting bad if THEY are reporting the planning for gridlock on the roads! I suppose we'll have to feed the lorry drivers too, unless they are expected to crack open their trailers and eat the contents!

You are right, the status of Gibraltar is important too. I didn't even know that there's an issue with Anguilla too, relying on supplies from neighbouring French Islands. Everwhere you turn, you find more problems being thrown up - and 7 short months to sort it out.

[Onelife]

Works for me OL, Good article but are these Experts as clever as the ones Jack listens to.??

Hi towny,

With the exception of Jack and the EU no one wants a hard border, Jack is holding onto the hope that the N S Irish issue will at some point bring about another referendum, whereas the E U are using it as leverage to keep us tied into the EU club. At least Jack is staying true to the principles he believes in......The EU are only interested in maintaining their stranglehold over countries that have very little option, other than cut off the hand that feeds them......We on the other hand are a resilient country and if it is to be a hard Brexit we will find a way forward.

I though the article (from a lay persons perspective) gave a sensible framework from which a solution could be found.

Regards

Keith

[anniec]

The boarder issues in Ireland are vitally important. But please dont forget such places as Gibraltar and Anguilla.

Gill, dont worry about Kent - according to the Mail on Sunday 100's of portable lavatories are to be deployed on motorways to be used by lorry drivers caught in gridlock caused by the reintroduction of EU border checks. The secret contract is understood to be one of dozens covered by non-disclosure agreements drawn up between the government and the private sector. Honestly, you just could not make this stuff up!! Surely this cannot be true - how would these toilets be cleaned and emptied if the roads are gridlocked!

I generally don't pay much heed to the MoS, but I did see that particular report on Twitter, and thought things must be getting bad if THEY are reporting the planning for gridlock on the roads!

Gill - Reading the extract I've highlighted, it appears you believe the MoS supports Brexit. Unlike the daily version of the Mail, it supports remain.

[Gill W]

The boarder issues in Ireland are vitally important. But please dont forget such places as Gibraltar and Anguilla.

Gill, dont worry about Kent - according to the Mail on Sunday 100's of portable lavatories are to be deployed on motorways to be used by lorry drivers caught in gridlock caused by the reintroduction of EU border checks. The secret contract is understood to be one of dozens covered by non-disclosure agreements drawn up between the government and the private sector. Honestly, you just could not make this stuff up!! Surely this cannot be true - how would these toilets be cleaned and emptied if the roads are gridlocked!

I generally don't pay much heed to the MoS, but I did see that particular report on Twitter, and thought things must be getting bad if THEY are reporting the planning for gridlock on the roads!

Gill - Reading the extract I've highlighted, it appears you believe the MoS supports Brexit. Unlike the daily version of the Mail, it supports remain.

Does it?

Good heavens, I didn't realise that.
Unfortunately, in my mind they have been tarred by the Daily version's brush !

[Jack Staff]

I generally don't pay much heed to the MoS, but I did see that particular report on Twitter, and thought things must be getting bad if THEY are reporting the planning for gridlock on the roads!

Gill - Reading the extract I've highlighted, it appears you believe the MoS supports Brexit. Unlike the daily version of the Mail, it supports remain.

Does it?

Good heavens, I didn't realise that.
Unfortunately, in my mind they have been tarred by the Daily version's brush !

That is correct at present, but ...
"Geordie Greig is to be the new editor of the Daily Mail, putting a staunch remainer in charge of one of the most pro-Brexit newspapers in the country."
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/ ... rdie-greig

though I believe the date has since been brought forward to September.

[barney]

I generally don't pay much heed to the MoS, but I did see that particular report on Twitter, and thought things must be getting bad if THEY are reporting the planning for gridlock on the roads!

Gill - Reading the extract I've highlighted, it appears you believe the MoS supports Brexit. Unlike the daily version of the Mail, it supports remain.

Does it?

Good heavens, I didn't realise that.
Unfortunately, in my mind they have been tarred by the Daily version's brush !

That is correct at present, but ...
"Geordie Greig is to be the new editor of the Daily Mail, putting a staunch remainer in charge of one of the most pro-Brexit newspapers in the country."
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/ ... rdie-greig

though I believe the date has since been brought forward to September.

A calculated risk Jack.
They could see sales plummet unless he compromises and gives the mail readers what they want.
I expect the Express owners are ribbing their hands with glee.

I was always a Guardian reader, but since the referendum, find I can't subscribe to it anymore.
If it got anymore biased, it would fall off the edge.
There was a time when it just reported the news, with a slightly left slant.
Now, pretty much no matter what the story is, they manage to bring Brexit into it.
Like all papers, confirmation bias is important, but I fear they are taking it to another level.

Meanwhile, back on our Brexit theme thread, the UK announce that we will very likely build our own satellite if the EU restrict access to Galileo system.
As the UK is one of the major financial contributors and the vast majority of the work is being done in the UK with British expertise, it's doubtful if the EU's system will be completed. The EU is now considering legal action should the UK supply the new contracts to those UK firms already contracted by the EU. So, they want us to build it, but not to have future access. How strange?
Cherry picking, anyone?

Then there is European wide Data.
The UK is the world leader in data but the EU say that they could withdraw access to the UK.
Nose off to spite face comes to mind.
But the UK has said, never mind, it works both ways then.
Much of Europe depends on Data technology from the UK.

Then there is financial services, which won't be covered under any UK/EU agreement.
The penny has dropped that much of the European infastruture projects need to raise finance in the City of London.
So, again. that will work both ways. No access for the UK markets, no access for the EU markets.

Flights ?
No agreement before March 2019 theoretically means that no planes can fly between the EU and the UK .
Again, that works both ways. Europe's tourism boards are very concerned.

The UK preparing for a NO Deal Brexit.
Well, it transpires that the EU seem to be mirroring the UK stance with virtually the same terms of waving through non contentious traffic, to avoid long queues at the ports.

What it seems to me, is that at last the EU are taking the whole thing seriously and have admitted that Brexit is happening and we have all got to make the best of it.
The usual model of pressure to change the democratic vote, that has previously always worked for the EU is now dead in the water.
Macron seems to be holding out at the moment, but he is the biggest Europhile of all.
His popularity is quickly waning according to French press (currently at 31%) and if the Farmers kick off, he will have no choice but to capitulate.
One of his ministers quit, live on air this morning.
The EU are trying to give the impression of total solidarity but a bit of research shows different.
https://www.politico.eu/article/vikor-o ... -populism/
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland- ... ce-reform/
https://www.politico.eu/article/luigi-d ... n-demands/

[Jack Staff]

A calculated risk Jack.
They could see sales plummet unless he compromises and gives the mail readers what they want.
I expect the Express owners are ribbing their hands with glee.

Sales are already well down (along with most dailies). Anything that hastens the demise of the Mail is good with me.
Did you know the Express is now owned by the same people as the Mirror?

I was always a Guardian reader, but since the referendum, find I can't subscribe to it anymore.
If it got anymore biased, it would fall off the edge.
There was a time when it just reported the news, with a slightly left slant.
Now, pretty much no matter what the story is, they manage to bring Brexit into it.
Like all papers, confirmation bias is important, but I fear they are taking it to another level.

I think that may say more about you than the Gwardian.

Meanwhile, back on our Brexit theme thread, the UK announce that we will very likely build our own satellite if the EU restrict access to Galileo system.
As the UK is one of the major financial contributors and the vast majority of the work is being done in the UK with British expertise, it's doubtful if the EU's system will be completed. The EU is now considering legal action should the UK supply the new contracts to those UK firms already contracted by the EU. So, they want us to build it, but not to have future access. How strange?
Cherry picking, anyone?

No, we voted to leave. So we are leaving. We may have to finish the contracts already in place, but that's the point of contracts.

Then there is European wide Data.
The UK is the world leader in data but the EU say that they could withdraw access to the UK.
Nose off to spite face comes to mind.
But the UK has said, never mind, it works both ways then.
Much of Europe depends on Data technology from the UK.

We voted to leave. The UK will no longer be a 'secure' country in the eyes of the EU.

Then there is financial services, which won't be covered under any UK/EU agreement.
The penny has dropped that much of the European infastruture projects need to raise finance in the City of London.
So, again. that will work both ways. No access for the UK markets, no access for the EU markets.

That is why the banks are leaving. Admittedly not in the way everyone (including me) thought. The only thing moving at present is the brass name plate on the front door. Staff will only gradually move across to (esp) Frankfurt. Of course who they will then pay their taxes to changes immediately.

Flights ?
No agreement before March 2019 theoretically means that no planes can fly between the EU and the UK .
Again, that works both ways. Europe's tourism boards are very concerned.

Yes, it is widely known the only people to go on holiday are the British.

The UK preparing for a NO Deal Brexit.
Well, it transpires that the EU seem to be mirroring the UK stance with virtually the same terms of waving through non contentious traffic, to avoid long queues at the ports.

No, they are hiring many more customs agents and creating new routes to avoid the UK all together.

What it seems to me, is that at last the EU are taking the whole thing seriously and have admitted that Brexit is happening and we have all got to make the best of it.

They have accepted that the UK are doing something that will damage everyone, they are also taking steps to mitigate the damage to themselves.
What happened to the 'sunlit uplands', and the £350m for the NHS? I don't think 'making the best of it' is what we were promised.

The usual model of pressure to change the democratic vote, that has previously always worked for the EU is now dead in the water.

The UK is a sovereign democratic country. It is not their job to interfere. So they haven't. But that doesn't stop me and it is far from dead in the water.

Macron seems to be holding out at the moment, but he is the biggest Europhile of all.
His popularity is quickly waning according to French press (currently at 31%) and if the Farmers kick off, he will have no choice but to capitulate.
One of his ministers quit, live on air this morning.
The EU are trying to give the impression of total solidarity but a bit of research shows different.
https://www.politico.eu/article/vikor-o ... -populism/
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland- ... ce-reform/
https://www.politico.eu/article/luigi-d ... n-demands/

Sorry Barney, there is always stuff going on in Europe. Many different views from many different people. That's what makes it such an inspiring place to be a part of.

[barney]

You are confusing Europe with the EU Jack.

Poland are not in a legal dispute with Europe, but with the EU.
Italy are not threatening to withold payment from Europe, but from the EU.
Hungary are not in dispute with Europe about the immigration policy, but they are with the EU.

I could quote dozens of more incidents of disputes with member nations.
Disputes with the EU, who you seem convinced have very little influence over how European citizens live.

The rise of the far right all across Europe is directly attributable to the intransigence of the EU, and their perpetual habit of ignoring the people of the Continent to pursue their goal of a Federal United States of Europe.
They even refer to 'Member States' as opposed to 'Member Countries'
That is because on joining, you cede your sovereignty to the Commission.
A bit like the USA, a single state has the autonomy to set local laws, but overall, the Federal Government trumps all.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/21/in ... far-right/

Even Uber Liberal Sweden and Denmark have had enough and the far right Democrats are expected to make huge gains at the Swedish GE.
Surely you must read European news and be aware of the true feelings of millions of Europeans.
You blithely paint it as some sort of magical Utopia when in reality, their social problems, particularly with the far right, are much worse than ours.
As of yet, only Italy have made noises about breaking away, but after the success of the UK leaving, I think there will be a slow demise of the influence of the EU.
When or if that happens, a few Socially Left Governments may be seen again.

Should it ever turn back into a trading block, I'd be happy to vote to join it.
All the time it is an insidious, capitalist political project, I'm happy to be out.

[Jack Staff]

You are confusing Europe with the EU Jack.

Poland are not in a legal dispute with Europe, but with the EU.
Italy are not threatening to withold payment from Europe, but from the EU.
Hungary are not in dispute with Europe about the immigration policy, but they are with the EU.

I could quote dozens of more incidents of disputes with member nations.
Disputes with the EU, who you seem convinced have very little influence over how European citizens live.

The rise of the far right all across Europe is directly attributable to the intransigence of the EU, and their perpetual habit of ignoring the people of the Continent to pursue their goal of a Federal United States of Europe.
They even refer to 'Member States' as opposed to 'Member Countries'
That is because on joining, you cede your sovereignty to the Commission.
A bit like the USA, a single state has the autonomy to set local laws, but overall, the Federal Government trumps all.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/21/in ... far-right/

Even Uber Liberal Sweden and Denmark have had enough and the far right Democrats are expected to make huge gains at the Swedish GE.
Surely you must read European news and be aware of the true feelings of millions of Europeans.
You blithely paint it as some sort of magical Utopia when in reality, their social problems, particularly with the far right, are much worse than ours.
As of yet, only Italy have made noises about breaking away, but after the success of the UK leaving, I think there will be a slow demise of the influence of the EU.
When or if that happens, a few Socially Left Governments may be seen again.

Should it ever turn back into a trading block, I'd be happy to vote to join it.
All the time it is an insidious, capitalist political project, I'm happy to be out.

In a group of over 500 million people there will always be disputes.
You only have to look at our local councils getting huffy with the government to realise it's simply a question of scale.
The reason they are member states not countries is because they are not all countries. Remember Wallonia? Surprised you didn't know that.
Countries do not cede sovereignty to the Commission, that is how we are able to just up and leave if we decide to.
People have been predicting the failure of the EU since before it was even created and they will carry on doing so.
While the UK may leave successfully, there is no way Brexit itself will ever be a success.
You may however get your wish of a socialist government with Corbyn.

[barney]

Try google Jack. WALLONIA ? I always thought that was a region of Belgium. A bit like an English county with local government. I stand to be corrected.

[Jack Staff]

Try google Jack. WALLONIA ? I always thought that was a region of Belgium. A bit like an English county with local government. I stand to be corrected.

Here ya go....
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-canada ... it-2016-10

Surprised that you haven't been all over this saying "How can an {area} a bit like an English county with local government, stop the EU getting a trade deal"

Perhaps the EU is not the big bully you portray it to be?

[Kendhni]

Hello Ken,

First of all, great to hear a different voice on this thread. I remember you wrote some excellent, balanced posts back at the time of the Brexit vote, and I agreed with a lot of the things you said at the time.

Secondly, I'm fairly sure you are in Northern Ireland. What are your feelings about the Irish border question? As I understand it, under the terms of the Good Friday agreement we can't have a hard border between North and South, yet to trade under WTO rules, we have to have a hard border.

GILL
The Irish border is an interesting one because there is no scenario under which the UK is going to come out of it looking good.

If the UK applies to the WTO then they must place a hard border between the North and South of Ireland. However this could be tied up in legislation for years since the Good Friday agreement is an international treaty with multiple parties involved (mainly the UK and ROI, but also the EU and US). While this is stalled in the courts the UK could well be blocked from joining the WTO - so we brexit with very limited ability for international trade or, at best, on very unfavourable terms. It would be impossible to police the border (as before) and therefore the UK would be in breach of WTO rules and could be subject to quite hefty fines - not forgetting that some would take it as a justification to resume attacks on the UK mainland. This is a nightmare scenario that I believe is unlikely.

One option is to put the border in the Irish sea. If the DUP even gets a snifter of that then they will withdraw support from the government who will be unable to get brexit through - brexit will collapse. A general election will probably be called and the most likely outcome is either a Momentum led Labour government (god forbid) or a coalition government (requiring support from 'remain' parties). In both cases they will probably claim that they (the new government) have no mandate for brexit and call a new referendum - who knows how that will go! Remember the people of Northern Ireland voted remain so there is an argument that the DUP (who claim to represent everyone in Northern Ireland) should not be supporting the current government.

While I would prefer the EU to do a bit more, the border issue is the UK's problem, it is not really the EU's problem (they are in a win-win situation). The UK will either have to capitulate to EU demands (soft brexit) or show the world that they have no respect for international agreements (at a time when they need as much goodwill from rest of the world as possible).

Now I hear that Rees-Mogg wants to 'have people inspected as we did during the Troubles.'

I wonder does Rees Mogg include himself in that since he has moved management of his funds from the UK to Ireland (showing a lack of faith in brexit). Again, if such checks were put in place between NI and the rest of the UK then the DUP could well withdraw support.

This all sounds very worrying. I live in Kent, and I'm concerned about my county being turned into a car park - but it doesn't worry me half as much as the Northern Ireland border.

I have read reports about possible tailbacks in the South of England. I am not familiar with the area and have no idea how justified these may be. However I really do not expect the French to put themselves out in protecting the border in relation to immigration any more (given that much of the flow seems to be towards the UK rather than towards France), nor do they have any real incentive in making legitimate/commercial border crossing efficient. However if the UK offers to pay the costs (I believe this has been suggested) then I am sure the French could accommodate our needs.

You mentioned you had dual citizenship - if it got too bad, do you think you'd move south of the border, to a relatively sane country?

I don't believe it will ever get 'too bad' for myself (and Julie). However there is no doubt that those that will be hit the hardest by brexit are not the 'wealthy elite' or people like me that have savings/investments, but will be the those at the lower end of the socio-economic scale (those that claim they are already struggling) - brexit is not going to be good news for them (for the foreseeable future). I am not quite sure how that will play out, but listening to some pundits they are advocating civil disobedience or civil war (although I think that is just ignorance fueled bluster). However if things did get 'too bad' I would have no issue moving south to ROI or maybe even onto mainland Europe, or even the US (which is also open to me). Naturally of course one would retain dual citizenship for the purposes of the NHS and benefits.

PS: Sorry about typos, grammar etc. .... I am just off a red-eye and there is no sense in going to bed because we head off on holiday in a few hours and I have to leave our clothes at the kennels and get the dogs packed

[Kendhni]

Hi Ken,

How can you expect a "properly costed model with time frames" when we are not sure which trade partners we wil be dealing with?....Whilst we may be able to discuss trade option within and outside of the EU nothing can be finalised or made publicly availible until trade deals have been made...l would imagine?

Wow - ever since the brexit debate started brexit has relied on two things: a set of statements made before the referendum that they had to concede were lies or, at best, mis-leading; and calling everything that they did not have any response to 'Project Fear'.

I think you have summed up in a couple of sentences why brexit is not fit for purpose. Every government continually models multiple future scenarios ranging from best possible to world war 3. The media has a habit of presenting whichever one suits the story they want to tell and then ridiculing the government and the 'experts' for every deviation from their one chosen model - facts do not sell papaers but, in the UK, whipping people up into a false sense of outrage and indignation does, so why present all the facts when you will sell more papers by doing the opposite.

By saying that we can't expect a properly costed model you are basically conceding that brexit has no strategy, brexit has no plan, brexit has no vision ... all brexit has is this quasi-religious dependency on faith, hope and jingoistic flag-waving. It also concedes the point that people had no idea what they were voting for and that everything that brexit claimed in the lead up to the referendum was made up.

However DExEU has created several models (available on their site) - so the question you should be asking is why do you not know about them? Why, if predictive models exist, is brexit still hiding behind the claim that everything they don't like is 'Project Fear'? The simple answer is that DExEU has not been able to produce a positive brexit model that they want to place in front of the British people (even after highly manipulating it).

We should also be asking why the government is so defeatist by overtly manipulating the public and managing their expectation in relation to a 'no deal'? Remember brexit, at the outset, told us that a deal would be simple. I know many blame Teresa May, but it appears her wonderful brexit leaders are running for the hills because they have realised that they could not deliver. I however blame the British electorate. After the referendum May gave the electorate a chance to get behind brexit and strengthen her position going into negotiations - the electorate chose not to. That means that either the public were not behind brexit as much as the referendum showed OR the electorate were just too stupid to realise just what an important issue brexit was and how it would affect them.

One other thing to ask is why has the EU not pushed for another referendum in the UK? They insisted on it in other countries . you would almost think that they want us out.

Ken, our standard of living may arguably be better than what it was 30 years ago but there is an increasing number who will argue this isn't the case (A large majority of them who voted out).

I do not accept that argument at all. If anyone believes that the standard of living and human rights in this country is not significantly better across the board in 2018 than it was when we joined the EU then all I can say is that they are seriously delusional.

Our small island is being kept afloat by financial services, if that bubble bursts we'll have no other industries to fall back on ... that'll be nothing to be proud of for sure.

Is that your own version of 'project fear'?

[towny44]

Ken, reading between your lines you seem to be suggesting that there is no way that we, or anyone else, could satisfactorily exit the EU, mainly because the EU has put so many pitfalls in their legislation to prevent an equitable exit.
For me that just strengthens my resolve to want to leave and to do it as quickly and as cleanly as possible.

[Kendhni]

Hi towny, a quick answer since I have to shut down in about 5 minutes.
Not suggesting that at all, I believe we can leave the EU, but we have to circumnavigate 40 years worth of legislation and to do that we have to leave 100% and then figure out what our relationship with the EU is. I do not believe the EU has put the pitfalls in place - they have done exactly what I expected them to ... they have agreed the out strategy and are now looking at the future relationship strategy. The problem is that brexit had no strategy before going into the talks apart from thinking they were going to dictate terms - remember all the brexit leaders told us, before the negotiations started, that the customs union was safe - they had no authority or basis on which to make that statement and when the remain camp questioned it brexit just told them any contradiction to their statement was 'Project Fear' (remind me how that went for us).

Your resolve may be strengthened, but based on your post, it is strengthened through wanting to get your own back - that is purely an emotional argument with no basis in fact, reasoning or logic. And, as I have said before, that is what brexit is totally based on, emotion, faith, hope - reasoned arguments and logic have never been part of the brexit strategy.

[Onelife]

Hi Ken,

How can you expect a "properly costed model with time frames" when we are not sure which trade partners we wil be dealing with?....Whilst we may be able to discuss trade option within and outside of the EU nothing can be finalised or made publicly availible until trade deals have been made...l would imagine?

Wow - ever since the brexit debate started brexit has relied on two things: a set of statements made before the referendum that they had to concede were lies or, at best, mis-leading; and calling everything that they did not have any response to 'Project Fear'.
6
I think you have summed up in a couple of sentences why brexit is not fit for purpose. Every government continually models multiple future scenarios ranging from best possible to world war 3. The media has a habit of presenting whichever one suits the story they want to tell and then ridiculing the government and the 'experts' for every deviation from their one chosen model - facts do not sell papaers but, in the UK, whipping people up into a false sense of outrage and indignation does, so why present all the facts when you will sell more papers by doing the opposite.

By saying that we can't expect a properly costed model you are basically conceding that brexit has no strategy, brexit has no plan, brexit has no vision ... all brexit has is this quasi-religious dependency on faith, hope and jingoistic flag-waving. It also concedes the point that people had no idea what they were voting for and that everything that brexit claimed in the lead up to the referendum was made up.

However DExEU has created several models (available on their site) - so the question you should be asking is why do you not know about them? Why, if predictive models exist, is brexit still hiding behind the claim that everything they don't like is 'Project Fear'? The simple answer is that DExEU has not been able to produce a positive brexit model that they want to place in front of the British people (even after highly manipulating it).

We should also be asking why the government is so defeatist by overtly manipulating the public and managing their expectation in relation to a 'no deal'? Remember brexit, at the outset, told us that a deal would be simple. I know many blame Teresa May, but it appears her wonderful brexit leaders are running for the hills because they have realised that they could not deliver. I however blame the British electorate. After the referendum May gave the electorate a chance to get behind brexit and strengthen her position going into negotiations - the electorate chose not to. That means that either the public were not behind brexit as much as the referendum showed OR the electorate were just too stupid to realise just what an important issue brexit was and how it would affect them.

One other thing to ask is why has the EU not pushed for another referendum in the UK? They insisted on it in other countries . you would almost think that they want us out.

Ken, our standard of living may arguably be better than what it was 30 years ago but there is an increasing number who will argue this isn't the case (A large majority of them who voted out).

I do not accept that argument at all. If anyone believes that the standard of living and human rights in this country is not significantly better across the board in 2018 than it was when we joined the EU then all I can say is that they are seriously delusional.

Our small island is being kept afloat by financial services, if that bubble bursts we'll have no other industries to fall back on ... that'll be nothing to be proud of for sure.

Is that your own version of 'project fear'?

Hi  ken, 


My gawd...your feet have hardly touched the ground and you are up and running with what l can only discribe as your blinkered view of who is more susceptible to lies and fear. One would have thought that those closest to the government would have been best placed to predict certain senarios ..now they either got that terribly wrong or they were lieing through their teeth when predicting the UK jobs, economy would fall into a massive black hole...It didn't. 


With regards to the lack of a proper model, please see above....The remain camp couldn't  predict one month ahead.....and you expect Brexit to have worked out a model for what is probably  going to be a once in a lifetime event....The future has many unknowns Ken.....its going to have to be work in progress for a few years l'm afraid....what is predictable is the fact that if we succeed the EU will fail.


Standard of living, human rights


I would agree that human rights have improved but totally  disagree that standard of poverty has improved in the past 30 years....where do you get this belief from?


My project fear.


Financial  services contribute  a massive amount to the UK economy, indeed that little bubble  known as London would sink without a trace without it.

Regards

keith

[Manoverboard]

… And, as I have said before, that is what brexit is totally based on, emotion, faith, hope - reasoned arguments and logic have never been part of the brexit strategy.

And so … let it be known that 17,000,000> simple souls voted with their hearts whereas 16,000,000> logical citizens voted on the basis of understanding the full picture without a hint of deception from the Remain side.

Cobblers -
ALL 33,000,000> voted with their hearts because nobody knew all the fact or implications ( bar Ken and Jack of course ) BUT they knew instinctively what they wanted and hoped that the outcome would mirror their vote.

.

[barney]

Speculation is rife both ways but the bottom line is that nobody really knows the final outcome because it's not been done before.

For all the Remainers out there, do you remember Barnier saying clearly that the UK could never have any sort of deal on financial services.
I'm sure that we all do.
That was on the presumption that there would be a mass exodus from the UK to EU countries.
It is now appartent that this isn't going to happen.
Quite the opposite in fact. The City is expanding rapidly.

So, Barnier says there can be no deal on financial services.
OK says our government, that's fine with us.

Ohh ! hang on, what's this
https://www.politico.eu/article/europea ... -billions/

"Maybe we've mucked up" says the EU team.
"Maybe we should boycott any talks until the UK changes it's mind"
Tough negotiators my leg !

"The Commission quoted an internal study, which estimated that if the U.K. is freed from just seven unspecified EU regulations, it would provide savings for British businesses of €6 billion a year, according to EU officials."

They are now seriously trying to back track and save face (and money)
So, for everyone who askd where are there any benefits of leaving the EU, this is just a start.
Of course there is also the small issue of the 40 billion bribe money as well.


Another up to date story for those who seem convinced that poor little UK cannot stand on it's own two feet without the mighty EU


https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa ... ncy-plans/

Given the UK wrote the encryption used in the system, I am guessing we can access it anyway, but that is by the by.

Interesting too that without UK participation the EU will lose access to the essential UK ground stations in the mid-Atlantic (Ascension Island), south Atlantic (Falkland Islands), Gibraltar, the sovereign UK bases on Cyprus, as well as Diego Garcia in the south Indian Ocean.