Brexit

[barney]

Alistair Campbell is not well known for his objectiveness on this subject

His journalistic editing as is biased as his TV interviews.

The man is clearly mentally ill and is an obsessive and yet the TV media continue to pander to his deluded dreams.

He should really call it a day in public life before the headlines about him are quite different.

[oldbluefox]

Web Financial Group:
"The report – produced by economists from across government departments – stressed it was not an economic forecast, nor did it model an exact representation of Theresa May’s deal.
But under the scenario that most closely resembles it, the report believes the economy will shrink by 3.9% over the next 15 years, as trade barriers hit goods and services and migration falls. That figure also takes into account what the report termed sensitivities, such as friction at borders.
That is thought to represent around £1,100 per person or a hit of around £100bn over the 15 years".

Note the words 'it is thought', 'it believes'. Nobody really knows do they?

[towny44]

The 3.9% underperformance of May's deal vs continued EU membership would result in a loss of GDP of approx £100 bn over 15 years according to the recent published info. This is just under £7bn a year and since we currently pay the EU A net £8bn a year, due to increase when they set the new budget, I think we might just about break even, even taking into account our divorce payment.

It's £100 billion per year

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-5794161

If its a 3.9% hit to the economy over 15 yrs then its only £102 bn, at todays GDP of about £2650bn.

[towny44]

Web Financial Group:
"The report – produced by economists from across government departments – stressed it was not an economic forecast, nor did it model an exact representation of Theresa May’s deal.
But under the scenario that most closely resembles it, the report believes the economy will shrink by 3.9% over the next 15 years, as trade barriers hit goods and services and migration falls. That figure also takes into account what the report termed sensitivities, such as friction at borders.
That is thought to represent around £1,100 per person or a hit of around £100bn over the 15 years".

Note the words 'it is thought', 'it believes'. Nobody really knows do they?

Thanks Foxy, you got in just ahead of me.

[oldbluefox]

Happy to oblige John.

[Gill W]

Its a 3.9% shrinkage each year, not over 15 years.

But you carry on believing what you want to believe.

[towny44]

Its a 3.9% shrinkage each year, not over 15 years.

But you carry on believing what you want to believe.

Gill I do hope that all your other sources of information are of a much higher standard than wherever you are obtaining this information.

[Gill W]

I derive my information from many sources. I always cross reference before posting, to make sure multiple sources are saying the same thing

[towny44]

I derive my information from many sources. I always cross reference before posting, to make sure multiple sources are saying the same thing

Well it looks like we are both wrong, it appears that in 15 yrs the effect will be £100bn a year, but of course that is the full effect of a 3.9% reduced gdp, however each years reduction will be a lot less than that especially over the early years. So I accept that the cumulative effect will be considerably more than £100bn but nowhere near the £1500bn implied in your post.
That's more than I would like but even if the forecast is correct, and they have been very inaccurate in the past, I still feel it is a price worth paying for being free of the EU.

[Gill W]

I wasn’t implying any cost - I was just trying to get the message over that the £100bn wasn’t the total projection for a 15 year period.

Of course, nobody knows for sure - but the figures are eye watering.

This could have all sorts of costs in human terms.

As older people, we are protected from many of these human costs, as we have a secure income in the form of pensions.

But would it really be an acceptable price to pay if it’s your loved ones who lose their jobs as a result of Brexit?

[towny44]

I wasn’t implying any cost - I was just trying to get the message over that the £100bn wasn’t the total projection for a 15 year period.

Of course, nobody knows for sure - but the figures are eye watering.

This could have all sorts of costs in human terms.

As older people, we are protected from many of these human costs, as we have a secure income in the form of pensions.

But would it really be an acceptable price to pay if it’s your loved ones who lose their jobs as a result of Brexit?

Gill, a 3.9% reduction in the GDP, vs staying in the EU, is a fairly small drop off over a 15yr period, note definitely not 3.9% every year, and would probably not be noticed by most people and is hardly like!y to result in a loss of jobs. And remember this all assumes the status quo, which will certainly not be the case because there will be at least 15 budgets during this period which will enable the chancellor to fine tune and adjust the economy to maximise growth.

[Onelife]

I watched the commons liaison committee meeting this morning where Theresa May was questioned on the brexit deal.....to say l was disgusted would be an understatement. l know these meeting are there to scrutinise, but the way this meeting was conducted was disgraceful. Lots of ambiguous questions put to Theresa May who tried to answer but was
Interrupted on nearly every occasion. What l watched today had nothing to do with understanding the rationale behind the brexit deal it was a "personal" attack by members who were just there to vent their own personal predjusies against the Brexit deal.

[Gill W]

Gill, a 3.9% reduction in the GDP, vs staying in the EU, is a fairly small drop off over a 15yr period, note definitely not 3.9% every year, and would probably not be noticed by most people and is hardly like!y to result in a loss of jobs. And remember this all assumes the status quo, which will certainly not be the case because there will be at least 15 budgets during this period which will enable the chancellor to fine tune and adjust the economy to maximise growth.

This is what I was saying about the Bank of England's projections - the modelling will influence what happens, when action is taken to avoid worst case scenarios. Then people say the models were wrong!

However, there is still potential for billions of £££ of lost GDP. For me, the risks are too great to make me change my mind about Brexit.

But as I've said before, it's ok to disagree.

[Gill W]

I watched the commons liaison committee meeting this morning where Theresa May was questioned on the brexit deal.....to say l was disgusted would be an understatement. l know these meeting are there to scrutinise, but the way this meeting was conducted was disgraceful. Lots of ambiguous questions put to Theresa May who tried to answer but was
Interrupted on nearly every occasion. What l watched today had nothing to do with understanding the rationale behind the brexit deal it was a "personal" attack by members who were just there to vent their own personal predjusies against the Brexit deal.

It was certainly uncomfortable viewing.

However, throughout this entire processs, May will not answer a straight question with a straight answer. I think the committee were asking very blunt questions in an attempt to get proper answers. From what I saw, it wasn't successful - May evaded the questions as usual

[Onelife]

Hi Gill,

Some of the questions put to her verged on the ridiculous.......One member asked........."who will build the Backstop"


Unfortunately Gill, politicians, in particular PM's don't survive very long by giving straight answers to straight questions....They always get twisted by the oposition for political gain.


Regards

keith

[towny44]

I watched the commons liaison committee meeting this morning where Theresa May was questioned on the brexit deal.....to say l was disgusted would be an understatement. l know these meeting are there to scrutinise, but the way this meeting was conducted was disgraceful. Lots of ambiguous questions put to Theresa May who tried to answer but was
Interrupted on nearly every occasion. What l watched today had nothing to do with understanding the rationale behind the brexit deal it was a "personal" attack by members who were just there to vent their own personal predjusies against the Brexit deal.

It was certainly uncomfortable viewing.

However, throughout this entire processs, May will not answer a straight question with a straight answer. I think the committee were asking very blunt questions in an attempt to get proper answers. From what I saw, it wasn't successful - May evaded the questions as usual

The clips I saw Gill she was trying to avoid giving specific answers to what if questions, even Yvette Coopers question was one that clearly TM did not want to give an answer to, because her answer could have been seized upon and might have been used to influence the vote in parliament. Obviously those wanting to see a no vote don't want to allow May's insistence that her agreement is the only sensible option to gain credence, so I don't blame her for not wanting to be diverted.

[barney]

The question one Tory asked was the same as the one I've been questioning.

If no deal, WHO will construct a border ?

The answer is nobody will and the whole fiasco is a red herring.

The 'backstop' is about giving the EU a veto on the decision of when to leave the customs union and single market

As Gill has said a few times - BRINO

I can't believe that the suckers are swallowing this rubbish.

[barney]

https://www.politico.eu/article/yellow- ... u-quarter/

They like us to believe that all is wonderful in the land of milk and honey ?


“Gosh,” the Eurocrat says, contemplating the scene from the upper floor of Berlaymont and sipping a latte. “Why can’t they eat cake?” He will now have to hurry to catch his flight to his holiday home in the Algarve.

[barney]

The question one Tory asked was the same as the one I've been questioning.

If no deal, WHO will construct a border ?

The answer is nobody will and the whole fiasco is a red herring.

The 'backstop' is about giving the EU a veto on the decision of when to leave the customs union and single market

As Gill has said a few times - BRINO

I can't believe that the suckers are swallowing this rubbish.

What happens at the Irish border if there’s no Brexit deal?

At face value, it seems straightforward — the EU’s land frontier with Britain would need to be policed to uphold the rules of the single market. Yet, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar seems to take a different view. Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, he told reporters there are no preparations to install checks, and has consistently said Ireland won’t build a border.

“The U.K. has said they won’t do it,” Varadkar said in an interview with broadcaster TV3 this month. “And I’ve made it very clear to other European prime ministers and presidents that’s something Ireland will never do.”

It’s a position that puzzles some in Brussels.
Speaking privately, one senior European official suggested the Irish should take a more measured approach or risk embarrassment if talks collapsed. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the EU official said there while there would be sympathy for Ireland in the event of the U.K. crashing out of the bloc without a deal, controls would eventually have to be implemented.

The border conundrum — how to keep the frontier open after Northern Ireland leaves the bloc with the rest of the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland remains in the EU — is the main stumbling block to an orderly Brexit agreement. But if talks break down without a deal, the border also risks prompting political turmoil on the island of Ireland and tensions at the heart of the EU.

Ireland would be given time to organize a border, and some leaks and smuggling may initially be tolerated, according to the EU official. But ultimately a border would probably have to be erected by the EU, the official said.

France is among countries most concerned about protecting the single market and any failure to adequately police the frontier in the event of a no-deal Brexit would create major problems with the European Commission and other member states, officials said.
One possible way to square the circle. If there’s no deal with Britain, the bloc could invoke a so-called frontier traffic exception to declare the whole territory of Northern Ireland as a border region to the EU, citing a never-before used clause linked to the General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs.

[barney]

So there we have it.
The EU will impose the border between the UK and Ireland.
The next question is who will man it?

[david63]

The border problem is something that the EU appear to be intransigent about. There have been several articles and interviews showing how a "soft" border could operate and, as far as I can recall, the UK have tried to go down this route but the EU always resist!

[david63]

P&O are now getting in on the act

[Happydays]

I received this email as well

[barney]

Yep! Me too.

I'm concerned about where our friend Jack Staff has gone to.
Was he is Paris with the Yellow Jackets after his foray into demos at the 'people's vote' march in London ?

Did he ever really exist?
Was he an EU bot?

[oldbluefox]

I wondered if he was at Westminster last week.
We were watching Sky News who were interviewing MPs about TMs Brexit deal.
It was great entertainment as some character bedecked in blue and gold and sporting a top hat manoeuvred his two stooges with their banner in view of the camera. The problem was the camera angle kept changing as they went from one MP to another so you got this comedy act as the two stooges were ushered from one side to another.
That gets my vote for comedy act of the week.