Chaos for about a week and then it would sort itself out.
I would tend go along with that, although I think that it could run to two weeks!
No matter what deal there is, or is not, there will be more pressure from those who export to us than from anywhere else. Take fresh produce for example - we can survive a lot longer without the produce than the growers can without having a market for their produce. Likewise with, say, cars - we can last longer without importing cars from Germany than Germany can without having a market for their cars and having to lay their workers off.
As barney says "Companies trade not governments" which is especially the case with the EU as a body - the individual countries will have a different view when "push comes to shove"!
Chaos for about a week and then it would sort itself out.
I would tend go along with that, although I think that it could run to two weeks!
No matter what deal there is, or is not, there will be more pressure from those who export to us than from anywhere else. Take fresh produce for example - we can survive a lot longer without the produce than the growers can without having a market for their produce. Likewise with, say, cars - we can last longer without importing cars from Germany than Germany can without having a market for their cars and having to lay their workers off.
As barney says "Companies trade not governments" which is especially the case with the EU as a body - the individual countries will have a different view when "push comes to shove"!
I do wish that were true David but you have to factor in that the EU bureaucrats are non elected, cannot be voted out, have no allegiance to anything other than the grandiose plans for the future of the EU, and prefer chaos to their exporters over backing down to the UK on the question of documentation and adherence to the single market rules.
The comment, "to cut of their nose to spite their face" could have been written especially for them.
Last edited by towny44 on 05 Dec 2018, 22:49, edited 1 time in total.
Chaos for about a week and then it would sort itself out.
I would tend go along with that, although I think that it could run to two weeks!
No matter what deal there is, or is not, there will be more pressure from those who export to us than from anywhere else. Take fresh produce for example - we can survive a lot longer without the produce than the growers can without having a market for their produce. Likewise with, say, cars - we can last longer without importing cars from Germany than Germany can without having a market for their cars and having to lay their workers off.
As barney says "Companies trade not governments" which is especially the case with the EU as a body - the individual countries will have a different view when "push comes to shove"!
This thread is turning into a comedy show.........sorry David but you must also be deluded if you think trading would just carry on as if nothing had happened.....Both the UK and EU would have to adopt new trading tariffs which would have to be agreed under WTO rules.
Furthermore do we know exactly what the backstop agreement says, and would the UK still have to pay into the EU while it is in operation? If so then May should be trying her damnedest to have this changed so that we pay nothing, in this way the EU would be just as determined to avoid it, or end it as soon as possible. If it's only the UK that suffers while the backstop is in operation then the EU have no incentive to agree a reasonable trade deal.
I now have TM's answer to my question, on PM Questions today she said that the UK would not have to pay in to the EU during any backstop period nor would we be subject to the free movement of labour, and although NI would be subject to the ECJ rules, GB would not . So The EU certainly has a major reason to want to limit any backstop operation, because this would certainly be a Norway++ type system, which they would not want to see extended.
Chaos for about a week and then it would sort itself out.
I would tend go along with that, although I think that it could run to two weeks!
No matter what deal there is, or is not, there will be more pressure from those who export to us than from anywhere else. Take fresh produce for example - we can survive a lot longer without the produce than the growers can without having a market for their produce. Likewise with, say, cars - we can last longer without importing cars from Germany than Germany can without having a market for their cars and having to lay their workers off.
As barney says "Companies trade not governments" which is especially the case with the EU as a body - the individual countries will have a different view when "push comes to shove"!
This thread is turning into a comedy show.........sorry David but you must also be deluded if you think trading would just carry on as if nothing had happened.....Both the UK and EU would have to adopt new trading tariffs which would have to be agreed under WTO rules.
My thoughts are that TM's deal could certainly be voted down but as more and more MPs start to understand the detail contained within the agreement and more importantly the responsibility that falls upon their shoulders they may be persuaded, by the eleventh hour, to vote in favour of it.
If it fails then we should threaten a ' No Deal ' and get TM to return to the EU table requesting that the backstop be further amended but that failing that then we will leave without a deal.
There will be problems in places but man is a pragmatist and the trading difficulties that arise will be resolved in due course, meanwhile it will be Parliament who will be in utter chaos doubtless blaming everybody else for their collective misfortunes.
My thoughts are that TM's deal could certainly be voted down but as more and more MPs start to understand the detail contained within the agreement and more importantly the responsibility that falls upon their shoulders they may be persuaded, by the eleventh hour, to vote in favour of it.
If it fails then we should threaten a ' No Deal ' and get TM to return to the EU table requesting that the backstop be further amended but that failing that then we will leave without a deal.
There will be problems in places but man is a pragmatist and the trading difficulties that arise will be resolved in due course, meanwhile it will be Parliament who will be in utter chaos doubtless blaming everybody else for their collective misfortunes.
ps … I do not subscribe to Merv's scenario.
Moby
and the other benefit from leaving without a deal will be the massacre of the Tory party If Corbyn got in he would last no more than 1 term. Don't forget, BREXIT is for Life, not just Christmas
I have just read that Michael Gove will close the 5 day talks over the Brexit plan...He may be slipper than a bath full of eels but he is unquestionably a man of audible talent....good choice Theresa.
My thoughts are that TM's deal could certainly be voted down but as more and more MPs start to understand the detail contained within the agreement and more importantly the responsibility that falls upon their shoulders they may be persuaded, by the eleventh hour, to vote in favour of it.
If it fails then we should threaten a ' No Deal ' and get TM to return to the EU table requesting that the backstop be further amended but that failing that then we will leave without a deal.
There will be problems in places but man is a pragmatist and the trading difficulties that arise will be resolved in due course, meanwhile it will be Parliament who will be in utter chaos doubtless blaming everybody else for their collective misfortunes.
ps … I do not subscribe to Merv's scenario.
Stay strong Mob......If we are right we'll be hailed as hero's on this fourm ...if we are wrong.. l'll leave you to take all the flack
While not wishing to re-run the referendum debate, let's all take a deep breath and understand what is actually happening here.
Just think back ...
Cameron (the Tories) stand on a manifesto pledge of offering a referendum to put this argument to bed for a generation.
They win an outright majority and honour (reluctantly) this manifesto pledge.
Before a referendum can be called, it is agreed overwhelmingly by Parliament as a whole.
So we have the vote and against the odds leave wins.
Cameron goes and May takes over with an absolute pledge to honour the vote even though she was a reamainer.
In the meantime there is a legal challenge on whether she can invoke Art.50 without the agreement of Parliament.
She loses her case and Parliament must have it's say.
So it does and overwhelmingly votes to trigger Art.50
Then there is a general election where BOTH main parties agree to honour the vote to leave as a major part of their manifesto.
No party gains an overall majority and the Tories rule with a back door top up from the DUP.
Then the fun and games really begin.
Once again flippy floppy May prefers the advice of her inner circle to the advice of her duly elected Cabinet.
She obviously learnt nothing form her election fiasco.
Her inner circle are not elected so have no constituents to please.
The deal proposed by May saw off two Brexit secretaries and numerous long standing ministers and still she refues to see it for what it is.
It's a bad deal for the UK
She said on many occasions, that no deal is better than a bad deal.
This is a bad deal, tying the UK to the EU ad infinitum.
Remember, this is only the withdrawal agreement not the trade deal.
What incentive to the EU have to do any kind of trade deal when the status quo persists?
It will go on and on and on and on ......
Then we have the eagerly awaited leaders debate to look forward to.
I'll save you wasting of your time because it will go something like this.
The gauntlet has been thrown down by Theresa May and accepted by Jeremy Corbyn.
Viewers are in for a treat.
What’s likely to be the most boring head-to-head in history will also be among the most confusing ever held.
On one side is the prime minister, a former Remainer transparently terrified at the potential chaos a hard Brexit could unleash, marshalling her talking points in favor of divorce.
On the other, a committed Europhobe who voted against joining the European Economic Community in 1975, secretly rejoiced at the referendum result and is now tying himself up in knots trying to stay consistent while rejecting May’s deal to keep his largely pro-European colleagues happy.
MODERATOR: “Good evening everyone, and welcome to the Great British Brexit Debate!”
[Muted audience applause]
MODERATOR: “My first question is for the prime minister: Theresa May, you voted to remain during the referendum. Do you believe Britain would be better off staying in the EU or leaving under the terms of your deal?”
Theresa May: “Well, um … It’s my deal or no deal.”
MODERATOR: “With respect, that doesn’t really answer the question.”
TM: “Strong and stable?”
MODERATOR: “I don’t think we’re going to get any further with that one. Let’s turn to you, Jeremy Corbyn. Your party is opposed to the prime minister’s deal. Would you now prefer to remain in the EU?”
Jeremy Corbyn: “Good God, no.”
MODERATOR: “Well, many in your party would now like to see a second referendum with the option of staying in the EU on the ballot.”
JC: “I wouldn’t go that far …”
MODERATOR: “How far would you go then, Mr. Corbyn? Exactly what is Labour’s Brexit policy now?”
JC: “Er, something about six tests?”
MODERATOR: “Do go on.”
JC: “Can I phone a friend? Keir? Keir? Where are you?”
MODERATOR: “Okay, let’s go back to you, prime minister. What are you going to do if you can’t get this deal through parliament?”
TM: “I am very clear that the deal we have negotiated with Brussels will pass through parliament, because it is very clear that the choice is between this deal and no deal. And that is very clear.”
MODERATOR: “But what if MPs do reject it?”
TM: “I am very clear that they will not reject it because rejecting this deal would mean no Brexit.”
MODERATOR: “So there would be a second referendum?”
TM: “No.”
MODERATOR: “OK, how about you, Mr. Corbyn — if you don’t like the deal and you don’t want a second referendum, how do you propose to proceed?”
JC: “Well, quite simply, we want a general election.”
MODERATOR and TM and the viewing audience, screaming: “NOOOOOO!”
MODERATOR [recovering composure]: “Right, well, let’s *shudder* assume there was a general election and Labour emerged as the biggest party. How would you proceed with Brexit, Mr. Corbyn?”
JC: “Well, for starters we would go back to Brussels and negotiate a far better deal than this ridiculous pile of nonsense.”
MODERATOR: “And why would the other EU nations pay more attention to you than to Mrs. May and her team, who have presumably wrung every available concession out of the other side over the past 18 months?”
[TM nods vigorously.]
JC: “They would listen to us.”
MODERATOR: “Why?”
JC [slowly and patiently as if to an idiot]: “Because we’re nice socialists and they’re evil Tories!”
MODERATOR: “Returning to you, prime minister. It has been said of your Brexit deal that it has achieved the unique effect of pleasing nobody. Is there anyone in your own party who approves of it?”
TM: “Oh yes — Philip does.”
MODERATOR: “Philip Hammond, the chancellor?”
TM: “No … Philip May.”
MODERATOR: “Right … And Mr. Corbyn, some on your own side have accused you of a lack of enthusiasm when it comes to opposing Brexit. You took a holiday during the middle of the referendum campaign, that’s hardly the action of someone committed to the cause.”
JC: “Look, I had already worked a 35-hour week; it was my statutory paid holiday, mine by rights as a worker.”
TM: “Isn’t that an EU directive?”
MODERATOR: “Good point, prime minister — would you like to follow up on that?”
TM: “Thank you, I would just like to clearly say that it’s my deal or no deal, and I am very clear about that.”
MODERATOR: “Well, our time is nearly up, so if you haven’t got anything further to say to Mr. Corbyn, is there some message you’d like to send to other Labour MPs to encourage them to support your deal? Or, indeed, to waverers on your own side?”
TM: “Yes, I would just say that this is a strong and stable deal in the interests of Britain and we are very clear that stability and strength will follow from this deal. Thank you.”
MODERATOR [wearily]: “And Mr. Corbyn, is there anything you would like to add?”
JC: “Sorry ? Where are we? Who are you people? "
MODERATOR: “That’s all from us here in the Hammersmith Dog and Duck. Goodbye — and please, don’t have nightmares.” [Viewers collectively turn the sound back up in time for David Attenborough’s “Dynasties.”]
Last edited by barney on 06 Dec 2018, 11:31, edited 1 time in total.
I have just listened to Sir Nicholas Somes (staunch remainer) heartfelt and sincere address to parliament. I can only hope MP's who intend voting aginst Theresa May's plan get to read what he has said.....It was one one the most enlightening thought provoking speeches l have ever heard.
The reason that it will get voted down is because it is a bucket of plop.
Anyone who has read it can understand that.
May has lied through her back teeth all the way through.
It was only a few weeks ago that she was saying that no UK Prime minister could ever agree to treating parts of the UK differently, and then promptly signs an agreement that does.
However, that part doesn't bother me so much as the inability to unilaterally leave the agreement should we wish.
Once in the 'backstop' we need permission from the EU to leave it.
We cannot legally leave it by our own decision.
For that reason, I'm out.
All EU member states with any vested interest, be it fishing, farming, financial or whatever, will object to the final trade agreement until we concede, full well in the knowledge that the UK will have to stay in the back stop in perpetuity.
So, her mantra of taking back fishing/agriculture etc is more bull poo because she will have to conceded to the status quo to secure a deal and get out of the backstop
That is not leaving the EU, in my humble opinion.
BRINO is what it is and a very long way form her Lancaster House speech.
No wonder Tory Remainers love it. That is because we will be basically remaining.
Soames has an agenda, as do Morgan, Grieves, Soubry et al.
They have never, ever accepted the result of the vote and have used every opportuntiy to undermine Brexit.
With respect Barney......you paint a very distorted picture of what will actually happen with the backstop. The backstop is a legally binding agreement which as you say dose imply that we could be kept in a backstop, however such as is the case with all legal agreements each party has right to challange such agreement should the the other party not honour their side of the agreement.
It has been spelled out by John (towny) why it wouldn't be in the EU's interest to keep us tied into backstop. Further, should the EU fail to comply (use best endeavour) we do have the right of arbitration but more importantly International law would look very unfavourably upon any countries that didn't work towards the spirit in which the backstop is intended to work.
With respect Barney......you paint a very distorted picture of what will actually happen with the backstop. The backstop is a legally binding agreement which as you say dose imply that we could be kept in a backstop, however such as is the case with all legal agreements each party has right to challange such agreement should the the other party not honour their side of the agreement.
It has been spelled out by John (towny) why it wouldn't be in the EU's interest to keep us tied into backstop. Further, should the EU fail to comply (use best endeavour) we do have the right of arbitration but more importantly International law would look very unfavourably upon any countries that didn't work towards the spirit in which the backstop is intended to work.
Keith
Too true Keith, very much as Jack was always telling us what would happen to the UK if we did not live up to our treaties and agreements.
Perhaps the problem with Barney's approach is that he believed that we should have taken the EU to the cleaners and had a very firm Brexit. TM on the other hand wanted to forge an agreement that gave consideration to the EU plus the Remainers and the Brexiteers.
I think TM's way was correct for the longer term prospects of all parties.
On the contrary Moby.
All I was expecting from our Prime minister was that she honoured her Lancaster House and Florence speech.
There is/was no way of any expectation in taking the EU to the cleaners, as you put it.
Just a fair trading agreement, should both sides wish to have one.
This alledged compromise is actually a sell out of her own proposal.
I'd be very surprised if this deal gets through.
I'd expect an absolute resounding bottom spanking unless she can cajole enough Brexit Labour MPs to support it.
The 100 Tory rebels may be stretching it a bit but I expect 50+
As for the back stop not ever being needed ?
It's a plain as the nose on your face that some of the 27 will use this to their leverage.
We would so why wouldn't they?
It looks like we might leave the EU but with continued payments, continued free movement, continued ECJ involvement and perpetually in the Customs Union.
Not much in that is about leaving, is it?
Pure capitulation in my opinion.
Last edited by barney on 06 Dec 2018, 17:02, edited 1 time in total.
Perhaps the problem with Barney's approach is that he believed that we should have taken the EU to the cleaners and had a very firm Brexit. TM on the other hand wanted to forge an agreement that gave consideration to the EU plus the Remainers and the Brexiteers.
I think TM's way was correct for the longer term prospects of all parties.
As an ex Buyer Moby I concur with your comments, a good deal is one where both sides feel they have benefited.
The hard line brexiteers will of course disagree as will those remainers who only look at the likely economic shortfall of no longer being full members of the EU. But I yearn for my first breath of non EU tainted fresh air, which will be worth much more than money can ever buy.
"The British, when they make their minds up, can jolly well overcome all obstacles and achieve anything".
Donald Campbell 1966
So why are we allowing ourselves to be pushed around by this self serving bunch of Eurocrats? I was always a little reticent about leaving on a no deal basis but the more I see how the EU behave, the sheer arrogance of Barnier, Tusk & Co and the self interest of the Remoaners (Remainers who cannot accept the result of the referendum) on the back benches the more I lean towards no deal and cutting ties altogether. Only then, once they realise we are not going to be pushed around will they talk sense and negotiate properly. I am prepared to accept a short period of disruption whilst they come to their senses but in the long run we will have got rid os the shackles of this failed experiment.
I think we all share your sentiments foxy.... being pushed around is a hard pill to swallow but it was us that wanted to leave and with that comes with consequences.
The fact remains they need us as much as we need them. No deal threatens thousands of jobs in the German motor industry alone. Around these parts there is an absolute dislike of the EU. We have not benefited from our membership but have suffered the consequences of its policies so why contribute so much money to something which is of no benefit to you.
The fact remains they need us as much as we need them.
Not true.
They are 27 countries, we are one.
They have ten times (ish) our population.
It is equivalent to your right arm being amputated. You may well go on to live a long and happy life, but your arm.....?
The fact remains they need us as much as we need them. No deal threatens thousands of jobs in the German motor industry alone. Around these parts there is an absolute dislike of the EU. We have not benefited from our membership but have suffered the consequences of its policies so why contribute so much money to something which is of no benefit to you.
You are correct Foxy...They do need us as much as we need them........economics dictate that fact
Jobs will be lost on both sides of the channel...which is why we need to come to sensible trade deals through a sensible withdrawal plan.
Clearly 52% of those who voted agree with you.
Being a member of the EU has certainly stifled our ability to embrace the opportunities that lie beyond........There have been bennifits, many of which we will adopt once we leave the EU....that being said l'm sure we could come up with equally good legislation/standards if we didn't have to throw billions into Brussels hospitality fund.
That's why I am so convinced we need to break away and then structure meaningful deals in the best interests of both sides. Will we still trade with the EU after Brexit. Of course. Will we still be able to visit, will EU citizens still come here to work etc. Of course they will just under slightly different terms. All this paranoia about what will happen after 29th March is exactly that. Thank goodness we didn't join Schengen or the Euro. (Remember what was going to become of us if we didn't join? The EU is littered with prophesies of Project Fear to bring everybody into line. Despicable).
No deal threatens thousands of jobs in the German motor industry alone.
Not true.
They will be very busy making up for the lack of competition from JLR, Nissan, Honda, Toyota.
You could well find out why in about three months time.
Now I'm back to my popcorn and watching the entertainment unfold.
Welcome back Jack glad that you're still alive and kicking.
Picking up on just one of your points, couldn't the same situation apply to the UK, JLR, Nissan, Honda and Toyota could be even busier than the EU car makers as they try to make up the even larger deficit of EU imports?
The views and comments posted in these fora are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the Management of Cruise Community Forum.
The Management of the Cruise Community Forum does not, under any circumstances whatsoever, accept any responsibility for any advice, or recommendations, made by, or implied by, any member or guest visitor of Cruise Community Forum that results in any loss whatsoever in any manner to a member of Cruise Community Forum, or to any other person.
Furthermore, the Management of Cruise Community Forum is not, and cannot be, responsible for the content of any other Internet site(s) that have been linked to from Cruise Community Forum.
If Corbyn got in he would last no more than 1 term. Don't forget, BREXIT is for Life, not just Christmas
...if we are wrong.. l'll leave you to take all the flack 
