Brexit

[Onelife]

Those who like me who were advocating the 'take it or leave it' approach to Brexit soon found out that we don't punch above our weight on the European stage. We have in our grasp the opportunity to change that.

If it were just a case of walking away without incurring major problems then l would have been gone months ago but l can't see that crashing out of the EU would succeed without inflicting severe damage on those least able to endure protracted uncertainty.
Theresa May's plan gives us the opportunity to go our own way in the future, and in a way that allows for a far less disruptive exit .. All other options being floated around will lead to equally difficult negotiations with the likelihood of them taking longer than what is on the table now.


When Theresa wins the vote of no confidence tonight l hope all the back stabbers p*ss off back to their constituencies and get on with what they are paid to do..... which is to represent the people who voted for the conservative party and get behind the decisions that the leader and her cabinet think best for the UK.

Long MAY she reign.

They are hardly back stabbers Keefy.
They are doing it in the front and in full public view.

You are probably right Barney...They just carry the knives for the trio of backstabbers who do want to stick the knife in

Like you, I think that she will win the vote tonight but a bit like Thatcher with Hestletine, she will be fatally wounded.
It's just a matter of time now.

A lot can happen in twelve months


If her party and cabinet were behind her awful deal, that would be great, but they are clearly not and that is why she has had 22 resignations.

There are always those who think they know better.... some will be missed many won't

[Onelife]

Those who like me who were advocating the 'take it or leave it' approach to Brexit soon found out that we don't punch above our weight on the European stage. We have in our grasp the opportunity to change that.

If it were just a case of walking away without incurring major problems then l would have been gone months ago but l can't see that crashing out of the EU would succeed without inflicting severe damage on those least able to endure protracted uncertainty.
Theresa May's plan gives us the opportunity to go our own way in the future, and in a way that allows for a far less disruptive exit .. All other options being floated around will lead to equally difficult negotiations with the likelihood of them taking longer than what is on the table now.


When Theresa wins the vote of no confidence tonight l hope all the back stabbers p*ss off back to their constituencies and get on with what they are paid to do..... which is to represent the people who voted for the conservative party and get behind the decisions that the leader and her cabinet think best for the UK.

Long MAY she reign.

You're not Philip May by any chance are you?

You've rumbled me foxy

[Onelife]

The one thing we can all be sure about is that Laura Kuenssburg will be back latter shoveling out her anti brexit bias

[Stephen]

Well the PM is still with us....just.

I think her whiskey 'cabinet' will be getting a bashing tonight. And like her or not I think she has earnt it.

[towny44]

I wonder if I am missing something about the backstop, the UK would remain effectively in the EU under similar trade arrangements as now and free to negotiate, even if not conclude ROW trade deals. BUT we would no longer have to pay any annual membership fees, and we may even be able to hold onto some if not all of the £39bn divorce settlement. OK we would still have freedom of movement but in reality this has become a non issue with our full employment, so all we need is for Theresa to offer the DUP a further, fairly large, sweetener to get them onside, once this is done I would expect the Tory radical brexiteers to quickly fall into line. Then we make sure that all contentious trade issues do not get agreement and then by Dec 2020 the negotiating position would be turned on its head.
I imagine lots of you will disagree with me, but is any of my fantasy unreal? I think I could possibly live with that arrangement for the next 40 years if the EU don't give us everything we want.

[screwy]

I possibly could but I doubt if many of us have 40 yrs left.,! Just saying...

[Stephen]

I possibly could but I doubt if many of us have 40 yrs left.,! Just saying...

.....true

[Mervyn and Trish]

Rees Mogg has trouble with maths. With a 52% to 48% majority in the Brexit vote he believes that is decisive enough to go for the hardest deal. But in the confidence vote he reckons 63% to 37% is so marginal TM should resign anyway. Does he think that many MPs would vote for him or Boris as leader?

I voted for Brexit and believe we should honour the result and get on with it. But I also understand we should respect the 48% and not crash out which is why I would back TMs compromise deal.

It doesn't mean, by the way, that I believe we should resort to Abbotian maths and declare 48% the winner.

[Onelife]

Rees Mogg has trouble with maths. With a 52% to 48% majority in the Brexit vote he believes that is decisive enough to go for the hardest deal. But in the confidence vote he reckons 63% to 37% is so marginal TM should resign anyway. Does he think that many MPs would vote for him or Boris as leader?

I voted for Brexit and believe we should honour the result and get on with it. But I also understand we should respect the 48% and not crash out which is why I would back TMs compromise deal.

It doesn't mean, by the way, that I believe we should resort to Abbotian maths and declare 48% the winner.

Absolutely agree Sir Merv, the majority have spoken and those who lost should honour the decision. My fear is that if Theresa doesn't come back with something which is legally binding the rats will be at her neck again.... it will be then that Corbyn make his play for a GE.

[Onelife]

I wonder if I am missing something about the backstop, the UK would remain effectively in the EU under similar trade arrangements as now and free to negotiate, even if not conclude ROW trade deals. BUT we would no longer have to pay any annual membership fees, and we may even be able to hold onto some if not all of the £39bn divorce settlement. OK we would still have freedom of movement but in reality this has become a non issue with our full employment, so all we need is for Theresa to offer the DUP a further, fairly large, sweetener to get them onside, once this is done I would expect the Tory radical brexiteers to quickly fall into line. Then we make sure that all contentious trade issues do not get agreement and then by Dec 2020 the negotiating position would be turned on its head.
I imagine lots of you will disagree with me, but is any of my fantasy unreal? I think I could possibly live with that arrangement for the next 40 years if the EU don't give us everything we want.

Hi John, your logic seems sensible other than to say l think trade deal negotiations will be conducted in a already predetermined order.....not sure if this is fantasy thinking but l'm sure l read this somewhere.

keith

[Ray Scully]

Heard nothing for months but Rees Mogg pontificating on how the Brexit situation should be managed Is this the same strategist who so ably cocked up "getting rid of TM" The Grand old Duke of York?? Methinks the British public have had a lucky escape should Rees Mogg and his bitter and twisted acolytes had got their hands on power.

[barney]

Let's all hope that she can get a compromise from the EU side and put the blooming thing to bed.
Like millions of others, I'm sick to the back teeth of the B word.

[Onelife]

Heard nothing for months but Rees Mogg pontificating on how the Brexit situation should be managed Is this the same strategist who so ably cocked up "getting rid of TM" The Grand old Duke of York?? Methinks the British public have had a lucky escape should Rees Mogg and his bitter and twisted acolytes had got their hands on power.

Me thinks you are right Ray

[towny44]

Hi John, your logic seems sensible other than to say l think trade deal negotiations will be conducted in a already predetermined order.....not sure if this is fantasy thinking but l'm sure l read this somewhere.

keith

Keith, if this would mean there has to be agreement on the first until you move onto the second, then I hope to goodness they don't start with fisheries!!!!

[Onelife]

Hi John, your logic seems sensible other than to say l think trade deal negotiations will be conducted in a already predetermined order.....not sure if this is fantasy thinking but l'm sure l read this somewhere.

keith

Keith, if this would mean there has to be agreement on the first until you move onto the second, then I hope to goodness they don't start with fisheries!!!!

I was thinking the same John........If it were the case then as much as l respect Theresa I think one would have to ask serious questions about her negotiationing tactics and indeed her leadership.

[barney]

We have to understand guys that this isn't the trade deal but merely the withdrawal agreement that is being discussed.
Fisheries, agri, trade, that all comes after March next year.

My prediction should May get this through the House is that it will still be going on in five years time.

Once the UK is in the back stop arrangement, there will be little need for the EU to take us seriously as they will have all of the power unless May can negotiate a unilateral arrangement for the UK to leave when ready, which looks unlikely, but we can hope.
All this clap trap about it won't suit them to keep us in is baloney.
Of course it will suit them.
They want the status quo trade wise because of the massive deficit.

You also must realise that while we are in transition period, the EU can pass any law that we will be legally obliged to enforce here.
For instance, they could pass a directive that gives the EU a tax on very trade that is done in the City.
That would massively disadvantage London but we wouldn't have any say in it as May has signed the deal.

Things like this is why I have advocated just leaving.
This government has two years of planning in the bank for a clean Brexit and should now come clean about it to strengthen her hand in Brussels.

[Onelife]

Hi Barney........l'm sure me and John are fully aware as to where we are in the negotiations....must dash out for dinner

[Stephen]

Hi Barney........l'm sure me and John are fully aware as to where we are in the negotiations....must dash out for dinner

Having 'Brussels' with you dinner Keith

[david63]

if this would mean there has to be agreement on the first until you move onto the second, then I hope to goodness they don't start with fisheries

There could be an argument that it would be better starting with fisheries than leaving it until the end. If the negotiations started with fisheries then it would give them two years to get it resolved rather than two months - just as long as other negotiations were also going on at the same time.

[towny44]

if this would mean there has to be agreement on the first until you move onto the second, then I hope to goodness they don't start with fisheries

There could be an argument that it would be better starting with fisheries than leaving it until the end. If the negotiations started with fisheries then it would give them two years to get it resolved rather than two months - just as long as other negotiations were also going on at the same time.

I would hope you are right David and that all negotiations run concurrently, but knowing the EU that might not be allowed.
Anyway we are getting ahead of ourselves, the DUP and ERG need to persuaded that any concessions TM secures are enough for them to change their vote, or brexit might be ploughing over the white cliffs in March.

[Onelife]

Re post 3416

Hi Barney,

I'm not about to plough through your posts to establish what you have said about the EU but l think l'm right in saying that one of your major gripes with the EU is that you see it as marching forward to becoming a super state of Europe.....The UK has used it's veto on several occasions trying to thwart this process going forward.....It used it's veto against the idea of a European military force...it is also on record that the UK vote against the majority on many issues.

I think it fair to say we have been a thorn in the side of the EU for many years and one of the reasons why the EU have/are about to introduce laws that prohibit using vetos where unanimous member decisions are required.

Keith

[Onelife]

Hi Barney........l'm sure me and John are fully aware as to where we are in the negotiations....must dash out for dinner

Having 'Brussels' with you dinner Keith

I did indeed Stephen........should get the results latter this evening

[Onelife]

If anyone is still wondering why Theresa May had to change tack seven months into the Brexit process then tonight's 'Question Time' gave all the answers. David Davis seemed out of his depth when responding to questions about Brexit...not sure if this was due to him not having a grasp of the issues or he just couldn't care less about it.

Embarrassingly awful.

[david63]

I noticed that there was another graduate from the Abbott school of mathematics on QT last night. Angela Rayner said that 60% of our trade goes to the rest of the world and 44% goes to the EU!

[oldbluefox]

Nice evenly balanced QT last night - 1 leaver vs 4 remainers.