Brexit

[barney]

I'm canceling my May cruise to the Med as I don't want to spend my hard earned in their countries. I shall holiday in the UK. Many more may do the same if traveling becomes tiresome. I know my friends in Malta are very worried that this could happen. The UK tourist is a major part of their business.

But will you really Barney?? That is the talk of a bigoted idealogue, not a label I would readily attach to you.

Absolutely 100% Ray.
There is no bigotry involved.
We have simply decided that we will spend our money in the UK, on UK products.
Our mantra has always been, local first, British second and then imported goods.

Some things, like cars, there is little option, but many things that we import are readily available here if folk can be bothered to look.
Since moving here from Kent, we have been exposed to many wonderful things.
Our new favourite is Devon Blue cheese, made down the road.
Every bit as good as any French cheese.
I also tend to by wine from the new world growers as opposed to Europe.

Regarding my comment on if 'travelling becomes tiresome ', what I was talking about was this
https://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/v ... oms.700540

If, by leaving the EU, normal travelling becomes too much like hard work for your average holiday maker, they will simply choose to go to non EU countries or stay in the UK.
That is what my hotelier friends are worried about.
The losers will not be us, but the millions in Europe who rely on UK holiday makers for a living.
It is up to European countries to decide how easy or difficult they want to make it.

Another good summer in the UK may cost the Europeans dear.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/3379567 ... ce-brexit/

[oldbluefox]

It just sounds like common sense to me barney. There's nothing vindictive about it, just accepting facts the way they are. All this claptrap about "We are going to suffer but at least Johnny Foreigner is going to suffer as well" ignores what will happen in the real world. If the cost of my German car becomes too expensive I will buy elsewhere. I already support local businesses, mostly holiday in UK and buy British whenever I can. If that is anti EU then so be it. I call it supporting my country first.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Then we go to them wanting to negotiate a trade deal.

What's the first thing they are going to ask for as a condition for agreeing a trade deal?

The money that we owe them.

Which we could agree. But they shouldn't get it if there's no deal.

The 39bn is money we had already committed to pay. Reneging on commitments isn’t going to make them very receptive

No, it was the first stage of an ongoing negotiation. It hasn't made them very receptive so far has it.

[Onelife]

This is the time we need to show that bulldog spirit and take this to the wire...

Whether we are prepared for what could be a no deal is another matter but the same applies to the other side of the water so l'm pretty sure Brussels will be getting increasing bouts of diarrhoea the closer we get to the 29th.

If we hold our nerve now we will see over the next few weeks European industries/exporters trying to put a backstop on all the sh*t that is coming out of the mouths of a few would be power crazy federalists.

Theresa's amended deal or no deal there choice.

[Jack Staff]

Theresa's amended deal or no deal there choice.

Or revoke Article 50 and calmly come up with a proper plan for Brexit that might actually work for us and possibly even them.

[Manoverboard]

A ' proper plan ' in your book would presumably be to remain tied to the EU and would, in any event, not reflect the outcome of 17,500,000 votes in the 2016 referendum.

So … thanks but no thanks

[Jack Staff]

This great upcoming Brexit Britain where the 16,141,241 no longer count.
I will send you a postcard from the 're-education camp', if I am allowed.
Your plan is doomed to fail, the country will be in turmoil until we can become one nation again.

[barney]

£39 billion. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed

[Quizzical Bob]

Absolutely screwy. The fact that a third of our food currently comes from the EU is a red herring. That is because we import and export unnecessarily. We ship kentish apples to EU countries while simultaneously importing French apples. Madness and hardly green. There is very little that we import that we can't get here already. Its called globalisation and I'm against it.

We are about 60% self-sufficient in food. Unless you want to go back to living off tinned Spam again and eating Woolton Pie then a our quality of life is going to be a lot, lot poorer in the future.

[Quizzical Bob]

We most likely do have alternatives - such as those already suggested during the original negotiations.

As I said before - it is all about money (ours)

They are not going to reopen negotiations on the WA only to discuss things that that were already discussed ad infinitum

You might be right Gill. On the other hand you might not. Unless you know something we don't. Personally I'm not that close to the negotiators. What they say in public may or may not be what they say in private.

Two thoughts. The backstop is designed to prevent a hard border in Ireland. The EU say it is never intended it will come into force. It is an insurance policy. So why not put a time limit on it, if they intend to negotiate in good faith on a trade deal? Which they say they are.

If it's a no deal exit on WTA terms there will be a hard border in Ireland. In April. Not two or three years down the line when they've had plenty of time to sort an alternative. Cutting off noses to spite faces comes to mind. And the vote to prevent a no deal exit last night was, according to commentators, only advisory. So the EU can't count on that.

Second thought, already backed up in the press today. We heard early on that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So no deal. No divorce payment.

If there is a time limit on it then it isn't a backstop.

After all the indecision and messing about do you really expect other countries to trust us again?

[Quizzical Bob]

What's the first thing they are going to ask for as a condition for agreeing a trade deal … ?

Howzabout ….

" Would you, the UK, please continue to buy more than you sell to us cos if you don't we are in BIG trouble ".

Yes / No ?

This comment is beyond ridiculous. The Single Market is enormous, the largest and wealthiest trading bloc in the world - yes, even without Britain. The idea that 'they need us more than we need them' is going to get us very poor, very quickly. EU producers have 450 million other potential customers.

[Mervyn and Trish]

If there is a time limit on it then it isn't a backstop.

If the EU are serious about negotiating a trade deal in good faith the backstop is irrelevant. Putting a time limit on it might focus their minds on delivering that good faith.

And to repeat - No Deal would mean No Backstop. And it would mean a hard border. They can have it in April, or set a realistic timescale, get a deal done and never need it.

[Manoverboard]

What's the first thing they are going to ask for as a condition for agreeing a trade deal … ?

Howzabout ….

" Would you, the UK, please continue to buy more than you sell to us cos if you don't we are in BIG trouble ".

Yes / No ?

This comment is beyond ridiculous. The Single Market is enormous, the largest and wealthiest trading bloc in the world - yes, even without Britain. The idea that 'they need us more than we need them' is going to get us very poor, very quickly. EU producers have 450 million other potential customers.

So you believe, Q Bob, that the EU and their workers would not miss the financial benefit we provide to their economies through EU Membership Fees and trade from the 27 to the UK … that is even more ridiculous than my comment

[Mervyn and Trish]

We are about 60% self-sufficient in food.

Then our farmers have a great opportunity to bridge that gap.

Given the choice I'd much rather buy British food than imported.

Just one example. We buy our mlk from a local supplier ten miles away. Much rather that than our local supermarket's Polish import.

A big chance for them to expand production.

Why do we import so much? Because the Common Agricultural Policy has rewarded wealthy landowners not to produce.

Post EU famring subsidies in the UK should encourage, not depress, home production.

[david63]

EU producers have 450 million other potential customers.

The key word there is "potential". In the short term they have to find those customers who are already being supplied by a.n.other. It is possible, in fact probably highly likely, that some of those suppliers are from the UK which just means that produce is diverted (both in the EU and the UK) but that will not be the case for everything.

[Gill W]

No - just highlighting the oddness that you support a policy you feel is going to result in our 'hour of need'

If you had taken the trouble to read my post properly instead of just looking to nit-pic you would have noted that my ' hour of need ' comment related to a ' NO Deal ' scenario. The policy I have supported all along, albeit with reservations, is TM's.

My posts relate to no deal as well, but I've had to put up with a barrage of posts since last summer about succumbing to project fear etc. We all get posts we don't particularly like, and being part of a small minority on this board, I probably get more than more. I've spoken about this before, but have always been told that people won't change their posting style. Fair enough, that's the way it is - but don't be put out when the boot's on the other foot and you're the one who feels miffed. Do what I do, feel a bit cross, then move on.

[barney]

Absolutely screwy. The fact that a third of our food currently comes from the EU is a red herring. That is because we import and export unnecessarily. We ship kentish apples to EU countries while simultaneously importing French apples. Madness and hardly green. There is very little that we import that we can't get here already. Its called globalisation and I'm against it.

We are about 60% self-sufficient in food. Unless you want to go back to living off tinned Spam again and eating Woolton Pie then a our quality of life is going to be a lot, lot poorer in the future.

That statement is of course based on the assumption that the UK no longer buys anything from the EU countries and that they don't buy anything from us.
That is just too ridiculous for words.

Let me tell you about a factual situation.
Tomorrow, Mrs B is taking possession of a new lease on her second shop.
The first has been successful, despite all of the negativity in the press about High Streets.
Independents seem to be doing pretty well, well they do down here anyway.

Now, her main two suppliers for higher end fashion are from Sweden & Denmark.
She speaks to them regularly, and they have no qualms about continuing to supply a good customer who pays on time.
They don't envisage any problems after the end of March and if anything, are looking to continued expansion in the UK.

The bed wetters are entitled to their opinion, but that is all it is.
Opinion !
Something only becomes a fact after the event.

One question that everyone should ask themselves is that IF it will be the absolute disaster that some are predicting, why are EU migrants still coming to the UK?
According to Factcheck, 219,000 EU citizens came to the UK to live and work in the year up to June 2018.
Granted many also left, but the true figure is still a net gain of about 78,000.

Things will without doubt be different after we have left, but that was the whole blooming point of the vote in the first place.
The majority wanted change.
Change for the better or worse, only time will tell.

[Gill W]

I'm canceling my May cruise to the Med as I don't want to spend my hard earned in their countries. I shall holiday in the UK. Many more may do the same if traveling becomes tiresome. I know my friends in Malta are very worried that this could happen. The UK tourist is a major part of their business.

But will you really Barney?? That is the talk of a bigoted idealogue, not a label I would readily attach to you.

Absolutely 100% Ray.
There is no bigotry involved.
We have simply decided that we will spend our money in the UK, on UK products.
Our mantra has always been, local first, British second and then imported goods.

Some things, like cars, there is little option, but many things that we import are readily available here if folk can be bothered to look.
Since moving here from Kent, we have been exposed to many wonderful things.
Our new favourite is Devon Blue cheese, made down the road.
Every bit as good as any French cheese.
I also tend to by wine from the new world growers as opposed to Europe.

Regarding my comment on if 'travelling becomes tiresome ', what I was talking about was this
https://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/v ... oms.700540

If, by leaving the EU, normal travelling becomes too much like hard work for your average holiday maker, they will simply choose to go to non EU countries or stay in the UK.
That is what my hotelier friends are worried about.
The losers will not be us, but the millions in Europe who rely on UK holiday makers for a living.
It is up to European countries to decide how easy or difficult they want to make it.

Another good summer in the UK may cost the Europeans dear.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/3379567 ... ce-brexit/

you've picked up and taken on board comment in Maltese paper about how Brexit may adversely affect them and I noticed a few days ago you picked up about 'Brexit tanking the Irish economy'. You are willing to believe reports about other countries having problems related to Brexit, yet, despite an avalanche of reports about the negative effect Brexit might have on us, you shrug them all off, and say that Brexit will be a minor inconvenience for the UK, and after a week of a bit of disruption, everything will be quite normal again. It seems a contradictory stance.

[barney]

What's the first thing they are going to ask for as a condition for agreeing a trade deal … ?

Howzabout ….

" Would you, the UK, please continue to buy more than you sell to us cos if you don't we are in BIG trouble ".

Yes / No ?

This comment is beyond ridiculous. The Single Market is enormous, the largest and wealthiest trading bloc in the world - yes, even without Britain. The idea that 'they need us more than we need them' is going to get us very poor, very quickly. EU producers have 450 million other potential customers.

I'd credit you with a bit more intelligence that that QB.

I've never bought into 'they need us more than we need them' scenario.
The truth of the matter is that we need each other.
True, there is technically a market of 450 million but how many of them can afford the type of luxury products that the UK consumer buys.

Things are not that great all over Europe at the moment and the last thing the Eurozone needs is another crisis.
Italy technically went into recession today and Germany is litterally on the brink.

From their perspective, a managed withdrawl agreement would be the sensible and practical thing to do, financially.

Can the EU take the politics out of it and do the right thing?
Again, time will tell.
All they have to offer is a time limited backstop and it would more than likely go through Parliament.
Even if they insisted of five years or somthing similar, I think the UK would still buy it. ( I wouldn't personally, but then it's not down to me)

Let's be honest, if a trade deal cannot be reached in five years, then it's unlikely it ever would happen.

[Gill W]

Which we could agree. But they shouldn't get it if there's no deal.

The 39bn is money we had already committed to pay. Reneging on commitments isn’t going to make them very receptive

No, it was the first stage of an ongoing negotiation. It hasn't made them very receptive so far has it.

No, the £39bn is money that we have already committed to pay to the EU.

Per Full Fact, the money is made up as follows

The UK’s contribution to EU annual budgets up to 2020;
Payment of outstanding commitments; and
Financing liabilities up to the end of 2020.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/

It's money we owe, if we renege on paying money we owe, why would anybody ever trust us again.

[Gill W]

We are about 60% self-sufficient in food.

Then our farmers have a great opportunity to bridge that gap.

Given the choice I'd much rather buy British food than imported.

Just one example. We buy our mlk from a local supplier ten miles away. Much rather that than our local supermarket's Polish import.

A big chance for them to expand production.

Why do we import so much? Because the Common Agricultural Policy has rewarded wealthy landowners not to produce.

Post EU famring subsidies in the UK should encourage, not depress, home production.

Someone told me the other day that we haven't been seff sufficient in food since the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846.

Bearing in mind our population has massively expanded, and we have less land given over to agriculture, I think the farmers would have to perform miracles to feed us all!

I found this report
http://www.agr.kyushu-u.ac.jp/foodsci/4 ... Colman.pdf

This givens an indication that the level of self sufficiency was similar in the 2000's to the 1870's.

[barney]

"But Downing Street sources dismissed the £36 billion figure at the time as “highly speculative and wrong” while they didn’t recognise the £50 billion claim."

The last paragraph, Gill

As someone who considers himself pretty good at maths, please explain to me how this figure is achieved.
The UK annual contribution is approx. 13.1 billion.
So, but your logic, between leaving in March 2019 and the budget ending in 2020, our bill is three times our annual contributions.
It's bribe money Gill.
It's what the UK negotiators agreed to pay in exchange for a free trade agreement.
It's a sort of 'smooth the way ' payment.

If there is no WA then in my book, all bets are off and we simply pay up to the end of the 2020 budget, which we probably are legally obliged to pay.

Whether the EU take umbridge and don't wish to do a free trade deal, is up to them.

[Gill W]

All they have to offer is a time limited backstop and it would more than likely go through Parliament.
Even if they insisted of five years or somthing similar, I think the UK would still buy it. ( I wouldn't personally, but then it's not down to me)

Let's be honest, if a trade deal cannot be reached in five years, then it's unlikely it ever would happen.

The whole point of the backstop is for it to be activated if there's no trade deal after a transitional period. If that period was 5 years, and they couldn't agree a trade deal, that 's when the backstop would actually be needed.

[barney]

But will you really Barney?? That is the talk of a bigoted idealogue, not a label I would readily attach to you.

Absolutely 100% Ray.
There is no bigotry involved.
We have simply decided that we will spend our money in the UK, on UK products.
Our mantra has always been, local first, British second and then imported goods.

Some things, like cars, there is little option, but many things that we import are readily available here if folk can be bothered to look.
Since moving here from Kent, we have been exposed to many wonderful things.
Our new favourite is Devon Blue cheese, made down the road.
Every bit as good as any French cheese.
I also tend to by wine from the new world growers as opposed to Europe.

Regarding my comment on if 'travelling becomes tiresome ', what I was talking about was this
https://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/v ... oms.700540

If, by leaving the EU, normal travelling becomes too much like hard work for your average holiday maker, they will simply choose to go to non EU countries or stay in the UK.
That is what my hotelier friends are worried about.
The losers will not be us, but the millions in Europe who rely on UK holiday makers for a living.
It is up to European countries to decide how easy or difficult they want to make it.

Another good summer in the UK may cost the Europeans dear.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/3379567 ... ce-brexit/

you've picked up and taken on board comment in Maltese paper about how Brexit may adversely affect them and I noticed a few days ago you picked up about 'Brexit tanking the Irish economy'. You are willing to believe reports about other countries having problems related to Brexit, yet, despite an avalanche of reports about the negative effect Brexit might have on us, you shrug them all off, and say that Brexit will be a minor inconvenience for the UK, and after a week of a bit of disruption, everything will be quite normal again. It seems a contradictory stance.

Not at all contradictory Gill.
The Malta story merely highlighted that while we will have irritations, so will they.
No more, no less.

The Major Inconvenience will come if the average joe in the UK decides to take his holiday money elsewhere.
The UK is by far the biggest contributor of tourists to Malta and they don't want that to change.
If half decided to go to say Turkey instead, because of aggro at the airport, it would do the Maltese economy untold harm.

See, it's all a two way street.

[barney]

All they have to offer is a time limited backstop and it would more than likely go through Parliament.
Even if they insisted of five years or somthing similar, I think the UK would still buy it. ( I wouldn't personally, but then it's not down to me)

Let's be honest, if a trade deal cannot be reached in five years, then it's unlikely it ever would happen.

The whole point of the backstop is for it to be activated if there's no trade deal after a transitional period. If that period was 5 years, and they couldn't agree a trade deal, that 's when the backstop would actually be needed.

Which is exactly why the UK cannot sign up to it.
It would keep us locked in until the EU said, ok, you can now go.
Only a total nutter would agree to that (TM)
It's like me signing a lease agreement but only the landlord can terminate it.

A back stop with an end date ( a bit like a lease) may be acceptable to Parliament.

so, the compromise would have to be something like, the transition period, and if no deal agreed, an extension, and if no deal agreed, the back stop with an end date.
Then if still no deal is agreed, both sides concede defeat, shake hands and go own own separte ways.