Brexit

[Quizzical Bob]

Howzabout ….

" Would you, the UK, please continue to buy more than you sell to us cos if you don't we are in BIG trouble ".

Yes / No ?

This comment is beyond ridiculous. The Single Market is enormous, the largest and wealthiest trading bloc in the world - yes, even without Britain. The idea that 'they need us more than we need them' is going to get us very poor, very quickly. EU producers have 450 million other potential customers.

So you believe, Q Bob, that the EU and their workers would not miss the financial benefit we provide to their economies through EU Membership Fees and trade from the 27 to the UK … that is even more ridiculous than my comment

You said "BIG trouble"

That is beyond ridiculous. You really have an overinflated vision of our place in the world. As far as our European colleagues are concerned Brexit is no big deal. It doesn't figure in their daily news. The vast majority of their citizens won't even notice that we've left.

Those operations that have traditionally serviced the british Market have been working on finding alternative customers.

[Gill W]

"But Downing Street sources dismissed the £36 billion figure at the time as “highly speculative and wrong” while they didn’t recognise the £50 billion claim."

The last paragraph, Gill

As someone who considers himself pretty good at maths, please explain to me how this figure is achieved.
The UK annual contribution is approx. 13.1 billion.
So, but your logic, between leaving in March 2019 and the budget ending in 2020, our bill is three times our annual contributions.
It's bribe money Gill.
It's what the UK negotiators agreed to pay in exchange for a free trade agreement.
It's a sort of 'smooth the way ' payment.

If there is no WA then in my book, all bets are off and we simply pay up to the end of the 2020 budget, which we probably are legally obliged to pay.

Whether the EU take umbridge and don't wish to do a free trade deal, is up to them.

Well you would put your own spin on it.

You have a habit of making authoritative sounding statements, but they are only your opinions. You say its bribe money - that's only your opinion.

We've made commitments to pay money to them. we are the ones leaving of our own free will. The honourable thing is to pay what we owe them otherwise the international community will never trust us again.

We'd not only be sticking two fingers up at the massive trading block right on our doorstep, but the rest of the world too. In a no deal scenario, we'd be the only country in the world without any trade deals, so I'm not sure it would be entirely sensible to flip the bird at the rest of the world. But that's only my opinion.

[barney]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

Evidence if needed form the EU stalwart The Guardian.

All is no so great in La La Land.

They could probably do with a bit of help and full and free access to the huge UK market won't do them any harm at all.
The choice is down to the EU technocrats

[Gill W]

Absolutely 100% Ray.
There is no bigotry involved.
We have simply decided that we will spend our money in the UK, on UK products.
Our mantra has always been, local first, British second and then imported goods.

Some things, like cars, there is little option, but many things that we import are readily available here if folk can be bothered to look.
Since moving here from Kent, we have been exposed to many wonderful things.
Our new favourite is Devon Blue cheese, made down the road.
Every bit as good as any French cheese.
I also tend to by wine from the new world growers as opposed to Europe.

Regarding my comment on if 'travelling becomes tiresome ', what I was talking about was this
https://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/v ... oms.700540

If, by leaving the EU, normal travelling becomes too much like hard work for your average holiday maker, they will simply choose to go to non EU countries or stay in the UK.
That is what my hotelier friends are worried about.
The losers will not be us, but the millions in Europe who rely on UK holiday makers for a living.
It is up to European countries to decide how easy or difficult they want to make it.

Another good summer in the UK may cost the Europeans dear.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/3379567 ... ce-brexit/

you've picked up and taken on board comment in Maltese paper about how Brexit may adversely affect them and I noticed a few days ago you picked up about 'Brexit tanking the Irish economy'. You are willing to believe reports about other countries having problems related to Brexit, yet, despite an avalanche of reports about the negative effect Brexit might have on us, you shrug them all off, and say that Brexit will be a minor inconvenience for the UK, and after a week of a bit of disruption, everything will be quite normal again. It seems a contradictory stance.

Not at all contradictory Gill.
The Malta story merely highlighted that while we will have irritations, so will they.
No more, no less.

The Major Inconvenience will come if the average joe in the UK decides to take his holiday money elsewhere.
The UK is by far the biggest contributor of tourists to Malta and they don't want that to change.
If half decided to go to say Turkey instead, because of aggro at the airport, it would do the Maltese economy untold harm.

See, it's all a two way street.

Ok, so the Irish economy will tank, Malta might lose a few tourists, but everything else will be fine within about a week.

Got it

[Quizzical Bob]

We are about 60% self-sufficient in food.

Then our farmers have a great opportunity to bridge that gap.

Given the choice I'd much rather buy British food than imported.

Just one example. We buy our mlk from a local supplier ten miles away. Much rather that than our local supermarket's Polish import.

A big chance for them to expand production.

Why do we import so much? Because the Common Agricultural Policy has rewarded wealthy landowners not to produce.

Post EU famring subsidies in the UK should encourage, not depress, home production.

Oh dear Oh dear.

You don't appear to understand. There is not enough land. Britain has not been self-sufficient in food since the 18th Century. The only reasion that we can support a population of more than 65 million is because we can earn enough foreign currency to pay for food imports.

This is why the U-Boat campaigns of both World Wars came very close to forcing us into defeat.

[Gill W]

All they have to offer is a time limited backstop and it would more than likely go through Parliament.
Even if they insisted of five years or somthing similar, I think the UK would still buy it. ( I wouldn't personally, but then it's not down to me)

Let's be honest, if a trade deal cannot be reached in five years, then it's unlikely it ever would happen.

The whole point of the backstop is for it to be activated if there's no trade deal after a transitional period. If that period was 5 years, and they couldn't agree a trade deal, that 's when the backstop would actually be needed.

Which is exactly why the UK cannot sign up to it.
It would keep us locked in until the EU said, ok, you can now go.
Only a total nutter would agree to that (TM)
It's like me signing a lease agreement but only the landlord can terminate it.

A back stop with an end date ( a bit like a lease) may be acceptable to Parliament.

so, the compromise would have to be something like, the transition period, and if no deal agreed, an extension, and if no deal agreed, the back stop with an end date.
Then if still no deal is agreed, both sides concede defeat, shake hands and go own own separte ways.

A backstop with an end date wont be acceptable to EU. It's already been commented that the way we are carrying on is the very reason that a backstop is needed.

No no deal it is. In 8 weeks time.

Hopefully everyone is preparing for this

[Quizzical Bob]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

Evidence if needed form the EU stalwart The Guardian.

All is no so great in La La Land.

They could probably do with a bit of help and full and free access to the huge UK market won't do them any harm at all.
The choice is down to the EU technocrats

No it isn't. It is down to the governments of the EU27

Don't believe anything everything that you read in the Daily Mail and suchlike.

[barney]

This comment is beyond ridiculous. The Single Market is enormous, the largest and wealthiest trading bloc in the world - yes, even without Britain. The idea that 'they need us more than we need them' is going to get us very poor, very quickly. EU producers have 450 million other potential customers.

So you believe, Q Bob, that the EU and their workers would not miss the financial benefit we provide to their economies through EU Membership Fees and trade from the 27 to the UK … that is even more ridiculous than my comment

You said "BIG trouble"

That is beyond ridiculous. You really have an overinflated vision of our place in the world. As far as our European colleagues are concerned Brexit is no big deal. It doesn't figure in their daily news. The vast majority of their citizens won't even notice that we've left.

Those operations that have traditionally serviced the british Market have been working on finding alternative customers.

90 + billion trade deficit is BIG Money Bob.


I have no vision of our overinflated place in the world.
We are the fith/sixth largest economy. (depending on who you believe)
We are the second biggest financial contributor to the EU coffers.
Our GDP is in excess of the lowest 19 , yes 19 EU countries, combined.
We are the world leaders in many things and have some of the best universties in the world.
The UK is a world player on the world stage.
These are all undisputable facts Bob.
We are not some unknown littel back water.

They will miss our money, make no bones about it.
That is why so many in the EU are still hoping that we call the whole thing off.
They will not miss the constant disruption we have caused to their politcal project and the federalisation of the EU.

[barney]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

Evidence if needed form the EU stalwart The Guardian.

All is no so great in La La Land.

They could probably do with a bit of help and full and free access to the huge UK market won't do them any harm at all.
The choice is down to the EU technocrats

No it isn't. It is down to the governments of the EU27

Don't believe anything everything that you read in the Daily Mail and suchlike.

You misunderstand me Bob.
I'm not a Tory and I certainly wouldn't read the Mail.
I'm more of an Observer/Guardian type of guy, but disagrre with their editorial about brexit.

And if the 27 leaders really have control of the issue, we will find out in a few weeks.

[Quizzical Bob]

So you believe, Q Bob, that the EU and their workers would not miss the financial benefit we provide to their economies through EU Membership Fees and trade from the 27 to the UK … that is even more ridiculous than my comment

You said "BIG trouble"

That is beyond ridiculous. You really have an overinflated vision of our place in the world. As far as our European colleagues are concerned Brexit is no big deal. It doesn't figure in their daily news. The vast majority of their citizens won't even notice that we've left.

Those operations that have traditionally serviced the british Market have been working on finding alternative customers.

90 + billion trade deficit is BIG Money Bob.


I have no vision of our overinflated place in the world.
We are the fith/sixth largest economy. (depending on who you believe)
We are the second biggest financial contributor to the EU coffers.
Our GDP is in excess of the lowest 19 , yes 19 EU countries, combined.
We are the world leaders in many things and have some of the best universties in the world.
The UK is a world player on the world stage.
These are all undisputable facts Bob.
We are not some unknown littel back water.

They will miss our money, make no bones about it.
That is why so many in the EU are still hoping that we call the whole thing off.
They will not miss the constant disruption we have caused to their politcal project and the federalisation of the EU.

The trade deficit is one of the most misunderstood figures that ever gets published.

And this is because were are an EU member, not despite it.

In per-capita terms we are the fourth-highest contributors.

"a world player on the world stage" ???


The relative sizes of the UK/EU economies should tell you all you need to know.

[barney]

you've picked up and taken on board comment in Maltese paper about how Brexit may adversely affect them and I noticed a few days ago you picked up about 'Brexit tanking the Irish economy'. You are willing to believe reports about other countries having problems related to Brexit, yet, despite an avalanche of reports about the negative effect Brexit might have on us, you shrug them all off, and say that Brexit will be a minor inconvenience for the UK, and after a week of a bit of disruption, everything will be quite normal again. It seems a contradictory stance.

Not at all contradictory Gill.
The Malta story merely highlighted that while we will have irritations, so will they.
No more, no less.

The Major Inconvenience will come if the average joe in the UK decides to take his holiday money elsewhere.
The UK is by far the biggest contributor of tourists to Malta and they don't want that to change.
If half decided to go to say Turkey instead, because of aggro at the airport, it would do the Maltese economy untold harm.

See, it's all a two way street.

Ok, so the Irish economy will tank, Malta might lose a few tourists, but everything else will be fine within about a week.

Got it

Malta's tourism will pale into insignificance in comparison to Irelands problems Gill, should there be no WA Gill.
Varadkar has badly misjudged the situation.
There is no doubt that they will be the most affected.

[barney]

You said "BIG trouble"

That is beyond ridiculous. You really have an overinflated vision of our place in the world. As far as our European colleagues are concerned Brexit is no big deal. It doesn't figure in their daily news. The vast majority of their citizens won't even notice that we've left.

Those operations that have traditionally serviced the british Market have been working on finding alternative customers.

90 + billion trade deficit is BIG Money Bob.


I have no vision of our overinflated place in the world.
We are the fith/sixth largest economy. (depending on who you believe)
We are the second biggest financial contributor to the EU coffers.
Our GDP is in excess of the lowest 19 , yes 19 EU countries, combined.
We are the world leaders in many things and have some of the best universties in the world.
The UK is a world player on the world stage.
These are all undisputable facts Bob.
We are not some unknown littel back water.

They will miss our money, make no bones about it.
That is why so many in the EU are still hoping that we call the whole thing off.
They will not miss the constant disruption we have caused to their politcal project and the federalisation of the EU.

The trade deficit is one of the most misunderstood figures that ever gets published.

And this is because were are an EU member, not despite it.

In per-capita terms we are the fourth-highest contributors.

"a world player on the world stage" ???


The relative sizes of the UK/EU economies should tell you all you need to know.

So, they won't miss us then Bob, will they ?

[Gill W]

There is no doubt that they will be the most affected.

Ireland more affected than us?

I’ll file that in ‘posts with potential not to age very well’

[Manoverboard]

I would be inclined to file it in ' Ireland goes down the tubes '

[Jack Staff]

Information that some might find useful...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYVp3ieHtRE

[Jack Staff]

Crisis in the prime minister’s Brexit team is deepening. Olly Robbins, her negotiator, has made it clear in leaked emails that he believes her decision to subvert her own deal is unviable - while No 10 has been briefing against him & discussing his replacement with the ERG
{Adonis}

[Mervyn and Trish]

Oh dear Oh dear.

You don't appear to understand. There is not enough land. Britain has not been self-sufficient in food since the 18th Century. The only reasion that we can support a population of more than 65 million is because we can earn enough foreign currency to pay for food imports.

This is why the U-Boat campaigns of both World Wars came very close to forcing us into defeat.

Oh dear oh dear. Thank you for a patronising post QB.

Maybe you don't understand either. The 18th century was 300 years ago. We've been in the Common Market since the 70s. We seemed to manage for the 250 years in between.

And the U-Boat campaigns were to stop convoys from across the Atlantic, not the EU. The world is bigger than the EU.

And farmers have been put out of business by EU policies. There is much much more land than we are using productively at the moment.

[Mervyn and Trish]

We are about 60% self-sufficient in food.

Then our farmers have a great opportunity to bridge that gap.

Given the choice I'd much rather buy British food than imported.

Just one example. We buy our mlk from a local supplier ten miles away. Much rather that than our local supermarket's Polish import.

A big chance for them to expand production.

Why do we import so much? Because the Common Agricultural Policy has rewarded wealthy landowners not to produce.

Post EU famring subsidies in the UK should encourage, not depress, home production.

Someone told me the other day that we haven't been seff sufficient in food since the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846.

Bearing in mind our population has massively expanded, and we have less land given over to agriculture, I think the farmers would have to perform miracles to feed us all!

I found this report
http://www.agr.kyushu-u.ac.jp/foodsci/4 ... Colman.pdf

This givens an indication that the level of self sufficiency was similar in the 2000's to the 1870's.

See my reply to QB.

[Onelife]

I wrote to my MP prior to the the Brexit amendments seeking conformation that he would vote down the  Brexit amendments 

This is part of a letter l recived today in response.....

Dear keefy one life, 



Thank you for contacting me about Brexit.

 

 On Tuesday the House of Commons voted on a series of amendments which, through various guises, sought to prevent No Deal or delay Article 50. I voted against all the amendments, save for the amendment moved in the name of my good colleague Sir Graham Brady MP, which sought alternative arrangements to the Northern Ireland backstop, which has proved so contentious. This amendment passed by 317 to 301. 


So the Prime Minister now knows she can command a House of Commons majority for a deal which delivers frictionless trade during a transition period long enough to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement without locking UK into a permanent Customs Union with the EU.

This requires the EU moving on the Irish backstop to an alternative arrangement, which was provided for within the Withdrawal Agreement / Future Framework. I am therefore hopeful this can be achieved, if EU leaders show willingness to do a deal, including the Irish PM. 

No Deal remains on the table, since despite another of Tuesday night's votes being carried which shows there is a parliamentary majority against No Deal, this can only be stopped by either signing a deal or passing legislation through both Houses before 29th March. Votes to give Parliament rather than Government power to take over the House of Commons timetable were lost. I voted against the No Deal amendment not because I seek No Deal, but because I believe the possibility of No Deal provides the UK with leverage in the final stages of negotiation with the EU.

After considerable division for some time, Tuesday’s results felt like the start of an endeavour that the House and the country can get behind, which is quite refreshing. Even the leader of the Opposition finally agreed to talk to the PM. It is also interesting to note some more vocal remainers and leavers seem to have united behind the so-called 'Malthouse Compromise', which emerged on Monday night. The essence of the Malthouse Compromise is as follows: 

Plan A - This involves an exit from the EU on time, and renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement to provide a new backstop, which is acceptable but incentivises both the UK and EU to reach a new future relationship – removing the need for a hard border with Ireland. This extends the Implementation period to no later than December 2021.

Plan B – Continue to offer Plan A with bilateral cooperation on security. Alongside this would be a negotiated Implementation period to December 2021, while meeting financial obligations. We would then offer a GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) Article 24 World Trade Organisation compliant standstill on trade with no tariffs, no quantitative restrictions and no new barriers, for execution at the end of the initial Implementation Period should the Future Relationship Free Trade Agreement not be in place by that time.

This would ensure both parties have sufficient incentive to work towards a new future relationship, but would also allow time to prepare properly for WTO terms, should talks break down. 

Given this plan seems to have secured backing from colleagues who hold widely divergent views on Brexit, it is nothing to dismiss out of hand. 

I look forward to seeing how the EU will respond over coming days to this increased clarity from the House of Commons, before the next iteration of the Meaningful Vote returns in February

.........

Not sure if theses two options will be our opening gambit but if nothing else gives then l think it would be hard for Brussels to argue that the UK haven't put forward a fair and workable compromise. .

.

[Manoverboard]

Hang on OL, Jack won't like it …

[Onelife]

Hang on OL, Jack won't like it …

Jack unfortunately has tunnel vision so it matters not what is put forward unless it has 'REMAIN' in it.

[oldbluefox]

EU announces visa-free travel for UK citizens going to Schengen area - even with no deal. Seems like common sense is beginning to dawn. That's one excuse the Remainers won't be able to use.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/01/eu- ... th-no-deal

[Manoverboard]

Hang on OL, Jack won't like it …

Jack unfortunately has tunnel vision so it matters not what is put forward unless it has 'REMAIN' in it.

' LEAVE ' it out OL

[Jack Staff]

EU announces visa-free travel for UK citizens going to Schengen area - even with no deal. Seems like common sense is beginning to dawn. That's one excuse the Remainers won't be able to use.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/01/eu- ... th-no-deal

Yes, a little good news.
But what happened to the unicorns and the sunlit uplands?

[Jack Staff]

Hang on OL, Jack won't like it …

Jack unfortunately has tunnel vision so it matters not what is put forward unless it has 'REMAIN' in it.

You can call it tunnel vision if you wish. I just have a different opinion of what is best for my country.
I can't see the point in becoming a rule taker, but I suppose blue passports.