Brexit

[anniec]

I don’t know about you, but, in real life, I only have Brexit conversations with people I know who agree with me.

I’m not doubting what you say, but the people who’ve discussed it with you know you views - your remain acquaintances and friends who still want to remain are probably keeping quiet.

Anecdotally, I don’t believe large amounts of Remainers have switched allegiance.

I think we have gone way beyond a ‘People’s Vote’.

It’s either
Leave with May’s deal
Leave with no deal.
Revoke Article 50.

There’s talk of asking for an extension of A50. Not sure how I feel about this. It just prolongs the uncertainty. Also not sure if the EU will agree unless something changes.

What a mess it is !

Gill,

I can honestly say I never raise the subject - it's far too toxic to run the risk of losing friends. If it comes up, before committing I say something along the lines "there are no rights or wrongs, only different opinions". You'll have to take my word for that

I wish I shared your conviction that there won't be a third referendum, but it's still one of several options - you've listed the others. It it comes to pass, I look forward to the result...

We are in complete agreement about extending A50 prolonging the agony, particularly for those who need answers to enable them to run businesses. And what a mess it is!

[barney]

I believe the 'no deal' brigade either think they' won't be affected by no deal, or they have vastly underestimated the risks of no deal, or dismiss any warnings as 'Project Fear'.

No Gill I don't think we under estimate the economic consequences and it would be far better to leave with a deal. But unless the EU agree to change or even withdraw the backstop clause then the current WA is not acceptable, possibly brinkmanship is the only thing that the EU understand.

We agreed to have a backstop as far back as December 2017.

The WA was endorsed by May and EU last November.

It was done and dusted as far as the EU were concerned - it’s us who are now saying we don’t like it, so it’s up to us to give the EU acceptable alternative solutions. This is no brinkmanship by the EU. They have been crystal clear that the WA is not up for renegotiation.

If they suddenly ‘cave in’ at the last minute, as Leavers think will happen, the EU will be a bigger basket case than us.

If you believe the news reports, Cox has now been dispatched to London to find a new solution by tomorrow afternoon. Good luck with that Geoff !

We can certainly agree on what a mess it is, Gill.

Of course it's all done and dusted as far as the EU are concerned because it's all in their favour.

Why May signed off on the backstop without putting it to Parliament is a mystery that only she knows the answer to but, the WA in it's existing form is just a draft document.
The double irony is that the backstop was introduced on May's request.

It does not and cannot come into force until it is ratified by both the EU Parliament and the UK Parliament.
As I say, up until that moment, it is no more than a proposal.

For the EU to say that a draft document cannot be reopened says more about their attitude than it does about ours.

The rules are the rules are the rules …. until they wish to change them.

Article 50 dictates that both sides should negotiate in good faith.
Do we really think that this is happening?

Just imagine the actual trade discussions if the UK is tied in forever via the Irish backstop !
What would be their motivation for a bespoke trade deal when we are legally tied in?

Can't agree with fishing rights ? Stay in the backstop.
Can't agree with Spain about Gibraltar? Stay in the backstop.
Can't agree with anything in particular? Stay in the backstop.

It's ok for folk to say that it's only temporary, but to my mind, it's like signing an indefinite lease that can only be ended with agreement from both parties.
Would anyone ever sign that?
I doubt it.

Without a legal get out clause, it will never, ever be accepted.

If that means leaving at the end of the month without a withdrawal agreement, then so be it.
I bet both sides will get round the table pretty quickly then.
There would be hundreds of hastily put together mini agreements until a trade deal was reached, and that would be pretty quick as well.

[oldbluefox]

I don't see the point of another referendum. If the result is the same we are back to square one, if it is reversed I could foresee civil unrest as the leavers will not accept the result, in much the same way as the Remainers have. What then? The best of three?
The prospect of a general election is a tantalising one as I could see quite a number of MPs losing their seats and the vote would revolve around Brexit as opposed to some of the more urgent issues we have in this country.
Industry is crying out for direction (one way or anotrher) and cite uncertainty as a major problem in their planning. How will extending Article 50 help them?
Weak leadership and a parliament with their own agendas have conspired to create this mess. Leave without a deal and I feel sure the two parties would quickly come up with a solution other than "Non, nein, no!!"

[Mervyn and Trish]

According the Emperor Macron in his pronouncement the other day the EU Is wonderful. As is the Euro. And we need more of it.

I wonder if he's seen this.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/266 ... countries/

Yes that is what the EU and the Euro has achieved economically.

No wonder Carnage is starting to think better about No Deal.

[barney]

An interesting story on the beeb site this morning about a new rail link between France and Italy, tunnelling under the Alps.
Quite unremarkable until I got to the bit that said that it is to be funded 50% by the EU wiith France and Italy picking up 25% each.

So,they expect the EU taxpayer to pick up half the tab on a rail line that affects just two member states ?

Spending other people's money comes to mind, or maybe it's me that's missing the point.

Maybe the role of the EU is to decide how member states tax money is distributed and on what fanciful projects.

Anyone else in for abandonning Brexit and stumping up a bit more cash for vanity projects in far off lands?

[Gill W]

See the pie chart in this link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29898083

Its from 2014, but it illustrates that our contribution to the EU budget is miniscule, compared with our overall annual spending.

I'd be more than happy to abandon Brexit, pay this small contribution, and enjoy all the benefits that being in the EU brings.

[towny44]

See the pie chart in this link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29898083

Its from 2014, but it illustrates that our contribution to the EU budget is miniscule, compared with our overall annual spending.

I'd be more than happy to abandon Brexit, pay this small contribution, and enjoy all the benefits that being in the EU brings.

Can you please expand on what you see as the benefits of being in the EU?

[Gill W]

There's not much point in going to to much depth, as, at this point in the proceedings, no body listens much to anybody with a different view.

But briefly, benefits are as follows

Being part of a massive trading partnership
Freedom to live, work and travel in all member states
EU laws protecting workers, consumers and travelers
Environmental protections
Negotiating power of being part of a large group
Ease of information sharing to combat crime
Being part of Euratom

These are just off the top of my head - if I spent more time on it, no doubt I'd come up with much more

[barney]

All that weighed up against being an independent country, I'll take independent any day of the week. Letting others make critical decisions doesn't and never has appealed.

[towny44]

There's not much point in going to to much depth, as, at this point in the proceedings, no body listens much to anybody with a different view.

But briefly, benefits are as follows

Being part of a massive trading partnership
That's not really helped the EU whose economy has shrunk as a % of World trade every year since we joined.
Freedom to live, work and travel in all member states
I would really like to know just how many UK citizens take advantage of this, discounting those who work abroad for their company, and will no doubt continue to do so.
EU laws protecting workers, consumers and travelers
I believe that UK laws are at least as generous as the EU standards.
Environmental protections
As above and I would expect it to continue.
Negotiating power of being part of a large group
If this was true then the EU economy would not have shrunk.
Ease of information sharing to combat crime
This could continue if the EU was really interested in combating crime in Europe.
Being part of Euratom
?Again there really should be no drawback to the UK remaining a member if the EU was not such a closed shop.

These are just off the top of my head - if I spent more time on it, no doubt I'd come up with much more

There seems very little of genuine benefit to me in the above, mainly just window dressing.

[Gill W]

We are a sovereign country, and have never lost sovereignty.

We are currently part of the decision making process in the EU, and have a veto. We don't just passively sit there while other countries make decisions for us

[Gill W]

There's not much point in going to to much depth, as, at this point in the proceedings, no body listens much to anybody with a different view.

But briefly, benefits are as follows

Being part of a massive trading partnership
That's not really helped the EU whose economy has shrunk as a % of World trade every year since we joined.
Freedom to live, work and travel in all member states
I would really like to know just how many UK citizens take advantage of this, discounting those who work abroad for their company, and will no doubt continue to do so.
EU laws protecting workers, consumers and travelers
I believe that UK laws are at least as generous as the EU standards.
Environmental protections
As above and I would expect it to continue.
Negotiating power of being part of a large group
If this was true then the EU economy would not have shrunk.
Ease of information sharing to combat crime
This could continue if the EU was really interested in combating crime in Europe.
Being part of Euratom
?Again there really should be no drawback to the UK remaining a member if the EU was not such a closed shop.

These are just off the top of my head - if I spent more time on it, no doubt I'd come up with much more

There seems very little of genuine benefit to me in the above, mainly just window dressing.

This is why I didn't put too much effort into my answer.

We'll just have to wait and see how much benefit it is to you, especially if we leave without a deal.

[barney]

We are a sovereign country, and have never lost sovereignty.

We are currently part of the decision making process in the EU, and have a veto. We don't just passively sit there while other countries make decisions for us

Even fanatical Europhile Nick Clegg openly admits that all EU members have to give up a high degree of sovereignty. Your delusion on veto is clearly misguided.

[Gill W]

*shrugs*

What does it matter? As it stands today we’re leaving in less than three weeks.

Also, as it stands today, MPs will be voting on exactly the same deal as they did at the end of January.

I haven’t been delusional about renegotiation of the WA, unlike some in these parts !

[towny44]

*shrugs*

What does it matter? As it stands today we’re leaving in less than three weeks.

Also, as it stands today, MPs will be voting on exactly the same deal as they did at the end of January.

I haven’t been delusional about renegotiation of the WA, unlike some in these parts !

Gill, I think most brexit supporters on here have said that we think the EU should allow renegotiation of the WA, or at least the backstop, because until the UK parliament agree to it, it can only be a draft proposal, regardless of what the official EU party line states. But we don't expect the EU to cave in until at least the 11th hour, if at all.
However if TMs deal is turned on Tuesday and the proposal to allow a vote on whether a "no deal" is acceptable goes through making it impossible for a no deal, then I do think that the only likely scenario is an eventual Labour govt and the UK leaving but staying in a customs union. Which for me would be far worse than us staying in the EU, returning 73 Brexit party MEPs and becoming the focus of guerrilla opposition to the Brussels Bovine Bureaucrats.

[Gill W]

When is the 11th hour?

[johnds]

We are a sovereign country, and have never lost sovereignty.

We are currently part of the decision making process in the EU, and have a veto. We don't just passively sit there while other countries make decisions for us

So if we remain we can veto the building of the tunnel or at least ensure that the cost is borne by the two countries involved and no-one else?

[towny44]

There is an interesting article in today's Mail by Michael Gove, in which he explains the reasons that the EU will be even more keen not to have the UK remain in the backstop, if it needs to be implemented, a moment longer than necessary. Because we would be enjoying all the benefits of the EU free trade arrangements without any of the drawbacks, no payments to the EU but we have full control of our borders, no freedom of movement and control of all our laws and able to ignore any new EU laws, control of fisheries and farming etc.
I agree with him that the EU would be desperate to see that ended as quickly as possible, which should ensure that our trade negotiators have the upper hand. Now all we need is for the ERG to see that this is probably the last option to secure a reasonable WA, any further delays, especially if parliament have voted out the possibility of a no deal, will probably end up with a much watered down Brexit in a customs union and no way to negotiate our own trade deals.

[barney]

Don't be suckered in John. The default position of the EU is to make it all as unpalatable as possible to deter others. When it gets to the trade negotiations it will be give us this or the backstop, give us that or the backstop. The threat of being tied in forever weakens our hand, in my opinion. Leave on the 29th and then begin talking trade is the best option.

[barney]

We are a sovereign country, and have never lost sovereignty.

We are currently part of the decision making process in the EU, and have a veto. We don't just passively sit there while other countries make decisions for us

So if we remain we can veto the building of the tunnel or at least ensure that the cost is borne by the two countries involved and no-one else?

Of course we can't john. The veto is very limited to big issues like taxation and joining members. Even that is moving towards QMV

[Mervyn and Trish]

No surprise the EU can't negotiate anything as important as Brexit. It's just concluded four years of debate on whether we can call gin and tonic "gin and tonic". Really getting to grips with major international issues.

[barney]

The EU still haven't got to grips with who they are dealing with. The UK is not Greece.

[Jack Staff]

No surprise the EU can't negotiate anything as important as Brexit. It's just concluded four years of debate on whether we can call gin and tonic "gin and tonic". Really getting to grips with major international issues.

The same could be said of the British government, which rather than sorting this Brexit mess of it's own creation, has been talking about low level letter boxes.

[anniec]

No surprise the EU can't negotiate anything as important as Brexit. It's just concluded four years of debate on whether we can call gin and tonic "gin and tonic". Really getting to grips with major international issues.

The same could be said of the British government, which rather than sorting this Brexit mess of it's own creation, has been talking about low level letter boxes.

I agree with you, Jack, though our ideas of how the British government should have sorted it, and with what end result, probably differ.

[anniec]

The EU still haven't got to grips with who they are dealing with. The UK is not Greece.

I fear the EU have got to grips with whom they're dealing, and have played a blinder.