Brexit

[Mervyn and Trish]

We'll see

[Jack Staff]

We'll see

I'm surprised you are so sanguine about "...if the backstop comes into force and if the EU imposes new business or food rules on Northern Ireland, those rules would also be adopted in Great Britain."

I thought you wanted to 'take back control'?

It appears the future of of country doesn't matter as long as Brexiters can pretend they 'won'.

[towny44]

We'll see

I'm surprised you are so sanguine about "...if the backstop comes into force and if the EU imposes new business or food rules on Northern Ireland, those rules would also be adopted in Great Britain."

I thought you wanted to 'take back control'?

It appears the future of of country doesn't matter as long as Brexiters can pretend they 'won'.

Jack, I know nothing is certain but even if the backstop is ever used hopefully it will only be temporary, I know you keep saying that a trade deal will take years, but since we have had 40 years of free trade operation I am hoping that it won't prove as difficult as you hope. I nearly said believe there but I don't think you really do, you just hope it will.

[Gill W]

I think your hope is misplaced, Towny.

Being in mind we don't even know how how/if we are leaving next week, after two years, I genuinely can't see how subsequent trade negotiations could ever be a breeze.

Anyway, it's all a moot point anyway, as any trade negotiation looks to be a long way off. I think we should be concentrating on what's happening now.

Current state of play
MV3 not yet scheduled.
If talks with DUP do not reach a 'favourable' conclusion by close of play Tuesday night (latest time that a vote can be tabled for Wednesday), May will go to the EU on Thursday to ask for a long extension.

Bearing in mind that the Leavers' bedfellows Farage, Banks and Wigmore have been trying to get certain member states to vote against an extension, the outcome is no means certain.

[towny44]

I hope you are wrong Gill, IMO the more difficult bit will be behind us once May's WA is agreed, there will be some sticky bits in the trade deals, but I am hoping that since several countries need their exports to the UK, the EU position will be much more flexible than the withdrawal discussions were.

[Manoverboard]

The EU has little to gain if the UK leaves so ' Withdrawing ' was always going to be extremely difficult.

Trade is another matter entirely, the vested interests of Germany and Co will ensure the passage is speedy and mutually beneficial.

[barney]

Parliament wants us to remain. The EU wants us to remain. Even Jack and Gill want us to remain. All of them still seriously think that remaining is the most likely conclusion. I tend to agree with them. The only three options left are. May's deal, no deal, no brexit. The third now seems the most likely in my opinion.

[anniec]

Parliament wants us to remain. The EU wants us to remain. Even Jack and Gill want us to remain. All of them still seriously think that remaining is the most likely conclusion. I tend to agree with them. The only three options left are. May's deal, no deal, no brexit. The third now seems the most likely in my opinion.

Indeed, though the problem lies mainly with Parliament: 160 MPs support Leave, 486 MPs support Remain. It's not difficult to draw your own conclusions.

[Manoverboard]

But how many of these 646 MPs will ultimately vote against the will of the people or indeed their own Party's Manifesto ?

[Jack Staff]

Erskine May 1, Theresa May 0

[Gill W]

The EU has little to gain if the UK leaves so ' Withdrawing ' was always going to be extremely difficult.

Trade is another matter entirely, the vested interests of Germany and Co will ensure the passage is speedy and mutually beneficial.

I think we have even less to gain by leaving, apart from unicorns.

Despite everything that has happened, I'm astonished that people still think anything related to Brexit will be easy. If we ever get to the point of negotiating a trade agreement, I expect it to be a long and difficult slog. After three years, everyone must now be aware that it won't be the easiest deal in history.

Parliament wants us to remain. The EU wants us to remain. Even Jack and Gill want us to remain. All of them still seriously think that remaining is the most likely conclusion. I tend to agree with them. The only three options left are. May's deal, no deal, no brexit. The third now seems the most likely in my opinion.

The problem parliament has is that MP's are supposed to act in the best interests of their constituents. The more reasonable MP's know that Brexit will cause their constituents a lot of damage, so it's difficult for them to knowingly vote for something that is harmful.

I'm not sure about the EU - I think they are sick to the back teeth of us, and would be quite happy for us to leave.

It's true to say that I would prefer to remain, but I'd be grateful if you wouldn't tell people what I am thinking - especially as you are not quite correct.

At this point, I genuinely don't know what is going to happen.

Last I heard, if DUP won't get behind the 'deal', May will seek an extension. 9 months is the period that I heard bandied around. I don't think that is nearly long enough. There'd a few more months of faffing with her deal or trying to find alternative arrangements, or she'd resign, or there'd be another referendum or a general election, then more faffing, then the summer holidays, then the party conference season, then a bit more faffing - before we knew it, 9 months would be up. Then what? More attempts at extension, or another no deal cliff edge, or revoke A50

WE don't even know if the extension would be granted - if not, it'd have to be either no deal and leave at the end of next week ( next WEEK - I can't believe that the general population are so laissez faire about the situation) or revoke A50.

[Gill W]

But how many of these 646 MPs will ultimately vote against the will of the people or indeed their own Party's Manifesto ?

The will of some of the people.

Anyway, this is a representative democracy.

We don't send delegates to do our bidding - they are our representatives to (supposedly) act in our best interests

[Mervyn and Trish]

But how many of these 646 MPs will ultimately vote against the will of the people or indeed their own Party's Manifesto ?

The will of some of the people.

Anyway, this is a representative democracy.

We don't send delegates to do our bidding - they are our representatives to (supposedly) act in our best interests

Those delegates overwhelmingly agreed to give us a vote in a referendum. They overwhelmingly said they'd honour the result. At the General Election both main parties, who between them hold the vast majority of seats, stood on a platform of delivering Brexit.

If they are delegates acting in our best interest and believed we couldn't be trusted to make up our own minds those were the times. Not now.

[Mervyn and Trish]

We'll see

I'm surprised you are so sanguine about "...if the backstop comes into force and if the EU imposes new business or food rules on Northern Ireland, those rules would also be adopted in Great Britain."

I thought you wanted to 'take back control'?

It appears the future of of country doesn't matter as long as Brexiters can pretend they 'won'.

Realistic would be my word Jack, rather than sanguine.

My comment was not on the phrase you quote, rather on what may or may not happen on Tuesday. Neither you nor I nor even the claivoyant Peston actually know. Nor can influence it. Hence my expression, "we'll see."

[barney]

The reason that so many are still cool about the whole thing Gill is that Project Fear has once again fallen on deaf ears. Most don't believe a blooming word of it. The anti brexit folk can harp on until the cows come home about the terrible fate that awaits us, but most believe that should it ever happen, life will go on pretty much as it is now. I include myself in that. I've spoken to my main suppliers in Denmark and Sweden and they don't envisage any problems.

[Gill W]

But how many of these 646 MPs will ultimately vote against the will of the people or indeed their own Party's Manifesto ?

The will of some of the people.

Anyway, this is a representative democracy.

We don't send delegates to do our bidding - they are our representatives to (supposedly) act in our best interests

Those delegates overwhelmingly agreed to give us a vote in a referendum. They overwhelmingly said they'd honour the result. At the General Election both main parties, who between them hold the vast majority of seats, stood on a platform of delivering Brexit.

If they are delegates acting in our best interest and believed we couldn't be trusted to make up our own minds those were the times. Not now.

The're not delegates, though. That's what I was saying. They are our representatives, and it's their job to act in our best interests. They have more information than they did 3 years ago, it's their job to use that information for the good of their constituents. It's not their job to doggedly keep chanting 'will of the people' as they drive us to a cliff edge!

I have to say I struggle with this clinging to 'delivering Brexit', when Brexit is damaging. we live in strange times when the government policy is to do something harmful, and some people are still supporting and even encouraging the harmful action.

[Gill W]

The reason that so many are still cool about the whole thing Gill is that Project Fear has once again fallen on deaf ears. Most don't believe a blooming word of it. The anti brexit folk can harp on until the cows come home about the terrible fate that awaits us, but most believe that should it ever happen, life will go on pretty much as it is now. I include myself in that. I've spoken to my main suppliers in Denmark and Sweden and they don't envisage any problems.

Ah, good old Project Fear.

I've thought for some time that remaining in the EU will suit a lot of Leavers as they can complain for the rest of their lives about the EU and Remainers, but, will never have to face the consequences of what a no deal Brexit actually meant.

[towny44]

The reason that so many are still cool about the whole thing Gill is that Project Fear has once again fallen on deaf ears. Most don't believe a blooming word of it. The anti brexit folk can harp on until the cows come home about the terrible fate that awaits us, but most believe that should it ever happen, life will go on pretty much as it is now. I include myself in that. I've spoken to my main suppliers in Denmark and Sweden and they don't envisage any problems.

Ah, good old Project Fear.

I've thought for some time that remaining in the EU will suit a lot of Leavers as they can complain for the rest of their lives about the EU and Remainers, but, will never have to face the consequences of what a no deal Brexit actually meant.

Gill, please give it a rest, we all know your views on the Armageddon that will follow leaving the EU, but as Barney says we don't believe the world will end. It may result in a slow down but they never last forever and whoever is in government will strive to stimulate the economy, and life will go on.
The only possible fly in the ointment is that we have never had a Marxist Labour Govt. before, but if that happens it won't really matter whether we are in or out of the EU, we will all be stuck on the Titanic as it sinks.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Re 5266. Gill, whether as delegates or representatives are you saying they didn't have any more clue in 2016 than us? Did they not listen to Call me Dave? Or even in 2017 when the election took place? That's a worry.

Re 5267. You asked Barney not to speculate on what you were thinking. Fair point. But maybe you'd show the way by not imagining how leavers are thinking. Especially as, in my case anyway, you too "are not quite correct".

[Gill W]

I tell you what, Towny, i’ll give it a rest if you lot all give it a rest.

Can’t say fairer than that.

In more interesting news, Bercow rules out MV3, if substantially the same as MV2

[Mervyn and Trish]

Ah yes, Bercow. The least impartial Speaker in the history of parliament.

From the commentary it looks like he's pushed us closer to no deal, which remains the default.

[Mervyn and Trish]

But further to Gill and Towny's comments above I'd vote for silence until 29th March. Only then will we actually know what is happening.

We could discuss cruising for a while instead. That would be novel.

[Gill W]

Re 5266. Gill, whether as delegates or representatives are you saying they didn't have any more clue in 2016 than us? Did they not listen to Call me Dave? Or even in 2017 when the election took place? That's a worry.

Re 5267. You asked Barney not to speculate on what you were thinking. Fair point. But maybe you'd show the way by not imagining how leavers are thinking. Especially as, in my case anyway, you too "are not quite correct".

I would say some MPs had even less clue than the rest of us, which is indeed a worry.

I wouldn’t dream of telling individual people what they think. But, unless Leavers in this forum stop saying what Remainers, as a group,think, ( they do, I’ve seen it) I’m not going to stop talking about Leavers as a group.

[Jack Staff]

But further to Gill and Towny's comments above I'd vote for silence until 29th March. Only then will we actually know what is happening.

We could discuss cruising for a while instead. That would be novel.

Just as things get interesting?

Plenty of other threads on here to frequent. Indeed I remember the topic author left this thread a while ago, saying he would not be back.

[Gill W]

Agreed Jack - after three years of all of our chuntering and repeating ourselves, it’s not the time to go quiet when significant action is finally happening