Current Affairs

[towny44]

Yet again if you think the current strategy, which was against SAGE advice, is 'succeeding' then you must have very low standards in your definition of 'succeed'. Hospitals full; turning away sick patients; cancelling operating lists; cancelling non emergency admissions; complaining of a lack of supplies, including oxygen (which my untrained brain would think would be quite an important item at this time). Number of detected cases and death rates climbing rapidly (and likely to do so for the next 2-3 weeks).

Ken, the daily infection rate has been stalled around the 20,000-25000 mark now for at least a week, surely this is a clear indication, even to you, that the infection levels are beginning to plateau. If this then follows the pattern we saw in late April this will be followed by a gradual reduction, but of course we will now never know if this would have worked and prevented the economic misery that this second lockdown will create.

[Gill W]

Yet again if you think the current strategy, which was against SAGE advice, is 'succeeding' then you must have very low standards in your definition of 'succeed'. Hospitals full; turning away sick patients; cancelling operating lists; cancelling non emergency admissions; complaining of a lack of supplies, including oxygen (which my untrained brain would think would be quite an important item at this time). Number of detected cases and death rates climbing rapidly (and likely to do so for the next 2-3 weeks).

Ken, the daily infection rate has been stalled around the 20,000-25000 mark now for at least a week, surely this is a clear indication, even to you, that the infection levels are beginning to plateau. If this then follows the pattern we saw in late April this will be followed by a gradual reduction, but of course we will now never know if this would have worked and prevented the economic misery that this second lockdown will create.

The figure of 20000 to 25000 is only people who’ve had positive tests. The ONS put the figure much higher, and rising.

This is their most recent report

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulatio ... ctober2020

[barney]

I tend to agree with that approach John.
This lockdown will probably extend beyond the official end date and will just be the second of many more to come.
There isn’t any chance of controlling the uncontrollable.
Until an effective vaccine is found, it will just go on and on.
I was reading an article yesterday saying that they think there is a slightly different strain around that originated from North African migrant workers coming into Spain and U.K. tourists bringing it back with them.
Once again, international travel has been the driver of the virus.
At least this time Johnson has said don’t travel, either in the U.K. or abroad.
At least that’s something.

[Bensham33]

If you want to avoid this lock down go to Wales. They will be coming out if theirs just as England goes into theirs. I don't think they will be very happy if they are out straight back into another lock down because Westminster couldn't get their act together.

[Kendhni]

Yet again if you think the current strategy, which was against SAGE advice, is 'succeeding' then you must have very low standards in your definition of 'succeed'. Hospitals full; turning away sick patients; cancelling operating lists; cancelling non emergency admissions; complaining of a lack of supplies, including oxygen (which my untrained brain would think would be quite an important item at this time). Number of detected cases and death rates climbing rapidly (and likely to do so for the next 2-3 weeks).

Ken, the daily infection rate has been stalled around the 20,000-25000 mark now for at least a week, surely this is a clear indication, even to you, that the infection levels are beginning to plateau. If this then follows the pattern we saw in late April this will be followed by a gradual reduction, but of course we will now never know if this would have worked and prevented the economic misery that this second lockdown will create.

Seriously????? Are you trying to compare April (when we were under full lockdown) with today when the country is paying lip service to lockdown? Even you should find that one hard to swallow and realise you are comparing apples and oranges. The April plateau of detection (which again was totally different) actually started at the beginning of April and didn't go down for 4 weeks - during the first 3 weeks of that the number of deaths continued to rise. Are you seriously saying we should ignore advice and rely on hope that we don't rise to 1000 deaths a day again.

On the first of October 59 people died, this has been rising throughout October and on 31st 326 people died from COVID.

Snap out of it and try to break away from what you want to hear - we all want to believe that John Wayne will come riding over the hill to save the day ... but this reality. Listen to what hospitals and doctors have been telling us for the past month, listen to what SAGE has been saying for the last 6 weeks, look at what is happening on mainland Europe - do you think the government, especially Johnson, would be talking about a lockdown unless they thought it was absolutely necessary?

When I want medical advice I am inclined to listen to medical staff and medical 'experts' rather than social media.

[towny44]

Yet again if you think the current strategy, which was against SAGE advice, is 'succeeding' then you must have very low standards in your definition of 'succeed'. Hospitals full; turning away sick patients; cancelling operating lists; cancelling non emergency admissions; complaining of a lack of supplies, including oxygen (which my untrained brain would think would be quite an important item at this time). Number of detected cases and death rates climbing rapidly (and likely to do so for the next 2-3 weeks).

Ken, the daily infection rate has been stalled around the 20,000-25000 mark now for at least a week, surely this is a clear indication, even to you, that the infection levels are beginning to plateau. If this then follows the pattern we saw in late April this will be followed by a gradual reduction, but of course we will now never know if this would have worked and prevented the economic misery that this second lockdown will create.

The figure of 20000 to 25000 is only people who’ve had positive tests. The ONS put the figure much higher, and rising.

This is their most recent report

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulatio ... ctober2020

Gill, I am well aware that the ONS figures are higher and why that is, but that still does not alter the fact that the actual test data has always been the one that was displayed on the PHE graphs, and there is no denying that they do seem to have plateaued. It may be temporary but we will not know for certain for a week or more.

[Gill W]

Ken, the daily infection rate has been stalled around the 20,000-25000 mark now for at least a week, surely this is a clear indication, even to you, that the infection levels are beginning to plateau. If this then follows the pattern we saw in late April this will be followed by a gradual reduction, but of course we will now never know if this would have worked and prevented the economic misery that this second lockdown will create.

The figure of 20000 to 25000 is only people who’ve had positive tests. The ONS put the figure much higher, and rising.

This is their most recent report

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulatio ... ctober2020

Gill, I am well aware that the ONS figures are higher and why that is, but that still does not alter the fact that the actual test data has always been the one that was displayed on the PHE graphs, and there is no denying that they do seem to have plateaued. It may be temporary but we will not know for certain for a week or more.

Sorry, that’s tunnel vision, just looking at one piece of data. Is it because it’s what you desperately want to believe?

[towny44]

Yet again if you think the current strategy, which was against SAGE advice, is 'succeeding' then you must have very low standards in your definition of 'succeed'. Hospitals full; turning away sick patients; cancelling operating lists; cancelling non emergency admissions; complaining of a lack of supplies, including oxygen (which my untrained brain would think would be quite an important item at this time). Number of detected cases and death rates climbing rapidly (and likely to do so for the next 2-3 weeks).

Ken, the daily infection rate has been stalled around the 20,000-25000 mark now for at least a week, surely this is a clear indication, even to you, that the infection levels are beginning to plateau. If this then follows the pattern we saw in late April this will be followed by a gradual reduction, but of course we will now never know if this would have worked and prevented the economic misery that this second lockdown will create.

Seriously????? Are you trying to compare April (when we were under full lockdown) with today when the country is paying lip service to lockdown? Even you should find that one hard to swallow and realise you are comparing apples and oranges. The April plateau of detection (which again was totally different) actually started at the beginning of April and didn't go down for 4 weeks - during the first 3 weeks of that the number of deaths continued to rise. Are you seriously saying we should ignore advice and rely on hope that we don't rise to 1000 deaths a day again.

On the first of October 59 people died, this has been rising throughout October and on 31st 326 people died from COVID.

Snap out of it and try to break away from what you want to hear - we all want to believe that John Wayne will come riding over the hill to save the day ... but this reality. Listen to what hospitals and doctors have been telling us for the past month, listen to what SAGE has been saying for the last 6 weeks, look at what is happening on mainland Europe - do you think the government, especially Johnson, would be talking about a lockdown unless they thought it was absolutely necessary?

When I want medical advice I am inclined to listen to medical staff and medical 'experts' rather than social media.

I am looking solely at the facts, as I comment to Gill in the prior post, this may well turn out to be a false dawn but we will now never know. Similarly the number of deaths will continue to rise as these lag well behind the infection level, and you are basing your hope's for an improvement on this 4 week lockdown working, I am afraid it will not be adhered to as well as in March because people are tired of the restrictions and less willing to comply the same. This will not reduce the infection as well as before, and probably require a further lockdown fairly soon after, even assuming that we actually exit this one on time.

[Kendhni]

Similarly the number of deaths will continue to rise as these lag well behind the infection level, and you are basing your hope's for an improvement on this 4 week lockdown working, I am afraid it will not be adhered to as well as in March because people are tired of the restrictions and less willing to comply the same. This will not reduce the infection as well as before, and probably require a further lockdown fairly soon after, even assuming that we actually exit this one on time.

I mostly agree with you here. Where I differ is that I am basing my hopes on nothing more than a half decent Christmas whereby he High Street might be able to profit from getting the R number down with people able to go about shopping and eating out in restaurants (many High Street businesses do the majority of their annual trade during the Christmas period). I am hoping that a lockdown might even allow family groups to get together over the Christmas period. But that is all.

I also agree there is some lockdown fatigue - I feel it myself. However, as I have said often before, the best ally that COVID has in this war is human stupidity - something that there seems to be in abundance. There is a dirty little trait that has been growing in society, over the last few decades, like a cancer where people, usually ignorant people, want to be all edgy and anti-establishment, they do this for no other reason than pure delusion that they are defending the masses against their make believe monsters. Sadly COVID is bringing these sort of conspiracy nutcases out in force - and there are even more that are gullible enough to believe them.

'... probably require a further lockdown ...' - there is probably no 'probably' about this. At the minute it is expected that we will go into a very tight lockdown early next year. Our best chance of avoiding this is if the governments can roll out an effective vaccine.

[Manoverboard]

I read a report this morning from a high ranking Police Officer who advocates expulsion for students caught violating the COVID guidelines ... seems like a good idea to me given that we cannot shoot them

[Onelife]

If you want to avoid this lock down go to Wales. They will be coming out if theirs just as England goes into theirs. I don't think they will be very happy if they are out straight back into another lock down because Westminster couldn't get their act together.

You’re right Bensham….totally disjointed shambles.

[Onelife]

I read a report this morning from a high ranking Police Officer who advocates expulsion for students caught violating the COVID guidelines ... seems like a good idea to me given that we cannot shoot them

With none refundable fee's one would hope

[david63]

Our best chance of avoiding this is if the governments can roll out an effective vaccine.

But that is unlikely in the foreseeable future so the next best option is to rigorously enforce the rules (which need making more robust) with the population and venues.

People need to be told in no uncertain terms that they are the problem.

[Bensham33]

I can only speak for the area that I live in but people breaking the rules is very few. The rules must be enforced and people really punished if they break them. If the police can't cope then use the army or army reserves. Didn't Boris once suggest a covid enforcement squad at one time (can't remember what he called ) ;But the way out of this is to enforce the rules, properly protect the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with our lives. Or have a proper lock down where everything shuts down including schools until a vaccine is found

[david63]

have a proper lock down where everything shuts down including schools until a vaccine is found

That will not happen, firstly because we cannot afford the economic cost and secondly there is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will be found, and available, in the immediate future.

[johnds]

Hospitals full; turning away sick patients; cancelling operating lists; cancelling non emergency admissions; complaining of a lack of supplies, including oxygen

What is your source for these statements because they are not true in the majority of the NHS as I see it

Sometimes Ken I think you should tell it as you see it and not mollycoddle us

[towny44]

If you want to avoid this lock down go to Wales. They will be coming out if theirs just as England goes into theirs. I don't think they will be very happy if they are out straight back into another lock down because Westminster couldn't get their act together.

You’re right Bensham….totally disjointed shambles.

Wales say all travel between Wales and England, until England comes out of lockdown, will be banned except for work and care treatment.

[david63]

One glimmer of hope is

Downing Street says the new regulations contain a “very clear provision” that means they will automatically expire at 00:01 GMT on Wednesday 2 December.

So much for doom and gloom Gove

[towny44]

Hospitals full; turning away sick patients; cancelling operating lists; cancelling non emergency admissions; complaining of a lack of supplies, including oxygen

What is your source for these statements because they are not true in the majority of the NHS as I see it

Sometimes Ken I think you should tell it as you see it and not mollycoddle us

The NI hospital is the only one I have seen reported to be rationing oxygen, maybe all Ken's other statements refer to NI as well, because it certainly is not the case in our area which was just about to go into tier 3.m, and should be struggling to cope according to Ken.

[Manoverboard]

If you want to avoid this lock down go to Wales. They will be coming out if theirs just as England goes into theirs. I don't think they will be very happy if they are out straight back into another lock down because Westminster couldn't get their act together.

You’re right Bensham….totally disjointed shambles.

Quite right .... the Welsh should have waited to ensure continuity

[Onelife]

If you want to avoid this lock down go to Wales. They will be coming out if theirs just as England goes into theirs. I don't think they will be very happy if they are out straight back into another lock down because Westminster couldn't get their act together.

You’re right Bensham….totally disjointed shambles.

Quite right .... the Welsh should have waited to ensure continuity

Quite wrong…. Wales and Scotland were waiting for clear and decisive action from the Government….it didn’t come.

[Manoverboard]

You’re right Bensham….totally disjointed shambles.

Quite right .... the Welsh should have waited to ensure continuity

Quite wrong…. Wales and Scotland were waiting for clear and decisive action from the Government….it didn’t come.

Nope, they have their own power base to do as they will .... but they didn't

[oldbluefox]

I can think of a couple of occasions at least when they have been in negotiation with the government and have stolen a march by announcing their own initiatives first which resembled those of the government but were just slightly tweaked.
Whatever Boris government did it is clear that Scotland and Wales would do something different so it is not exactly true they did not have action from the government. As devolved nations they had every right to decide for themselves what to do.
I am always bemused by our media who seem to think whatever Wales and Scotland do that must be the right track to follow. Actually whatever ANY country does, in their eyes it seems to be infinitely better than anything we do.

[barney]

Just back from a lovely lunch ( local mussels)

In the part of the restaurant that we sat in, there was four tables.

So, us two locals, a family of four from Liverpool, and two separate families from the Midlands, all clearly on holiday due to their conversations.

I expect they will be heading back on Wednesday

[barney]

I can think of a couple of occasions at least when they have been in negotiation with the government and have stolen a march by announcing their own initiatives first which resembled those of the government but were just slightly tweaked.
Whatever Boris government did it is clear that Scotland and Wales would do something different so it is not exactly true they did not have action from the government. As devolved nations they had every right to decide for themselves what to do.
I am always bemused by our media who seem to think whatever Wales and Scotland do that must be the right track to follow. Actually whatever ANY country does, in their eyes it seems to be infinitely better than anything we do.

You’re right there OBF.
I could put dozens of links to foreign periodicals showing that their citizens are far more furious with their leaders.
Violent protests all over the continent are ignored by the British press.