Current Affairs

[Gill W]

You want to get your family round for Christmas. Perhaps this might make you think again.

Scroll down for short video.

Covid: Ministers meet amid rising infection rates in England https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55372743

Infections are rampant in Kent and parts of Essex at the moment.

They must be spooked about it if they are working at the weekend.

I hope they take decisive account without delay, as a crisis is looming

[Onelife]

Wrong again Keith, Italy, Spain and Belgium all now have deaths per million levels higher than the UK, and others are fast catching up with us.

Which makes what I said Right!

Keith, we are never going to eradicate this virus, the vaccine should allow us to return to some sort of normality, but until then we have to try and live with the virus, without wrecking our economy and without overloading our health service or letting the death rate spiral out of control.
Every country in the world is walking this tightrope, and most are just about managing it, our's included, they need our support not to have people continually complaining about them taking the wrong advice.

Really!!!

You clearly haven’t been watching the news.

Oh’ was it intentional to have left out your apology to me or just an oversight?

[Manoverboard]

.... Infections are rampant in Kent and parts of Essex at the moment.

They must be spooked about it if they are working at the weekend.

I hope they take decisive account without delay, as a crisis is looming

That has to be because there are far too many idiots in the region, had they taken notice of the rules or even used common sense the problem would not be so rampant. It must be so frustrating and scarey for those who, including your good self, who have made the effort to stay safe in spite of the brain dead in their midst.

Whatever action is taken it will of course be ignored by too many so the situation will continue to get worse.

[johnds]

On balance I have supported the Government as it has tried to plot a course through these unchartered waters.
Sir Hindsight has had nothing to offer in the way of help in this fight.
The massive increase in infections over the last two weeks has however convinced me that it's time the velvet glove was removed from the iron fist
and some immediate draconian action taken to control these viruses until the vaccine takes over.
Here's my plan

Immediately agree with the other three national leaders to cancel the Christmas relaxation. Yes there will be uproar and thousands will ignore the call. The message however will be made loud and strong - stop messing about with this virus and trying to circumvent the rules for personal gain i.e a bag of Wotsits is not a substantial meal.

Tiering
I basically support tiering but the criteria is hardly transparent
However we should immediately add a Tier 4 for the worst cases.
Tier 4 would equate to total lockdown
All non essential shops to close
Essential shopping to be defined
Shops selling essential products should not be allowed to sell non essential items to preserve a level playing field in the market
Hairdressing, personal services and gyms to be closed. No exceptions allowed.
All sporting venues closed
Strict curfew 8pm to 6pm except for work and health
Serious fines for transgression and three strikes and you in the jug/
Move about half tier 3 to tier 4
No promises of relaxation for at least 6 weeks

Get serious get on top of it

Gets flak jacket and retires

[oldbluefox]

Gets flak jacket and retires

I'm right behind you!!!

[Onelife]

Gets flak jacket and retires

I'm right behind you!!!

Me too...don't say a word Stephen

[screwy]

Couldn’t agree more,that way we could possibly identify the numb nuts who flout the rules and punish accordingly.

Btw, Flak jackets and tin lids aren’t nice to wear....do a job tho.

[Gill W]

.... Infections are rampant in Kent and parts of Essex at the moment.

They must be spooked about it if they are working at the weekend.

I hope they take decisive account without delay, as a crisis is looming

That has to be because there are far too many idiots in the region, had they taken notice of the rules or even used common sense the problem would not be so rampant. It must be so frustrating and scarey for those who, including your good self, who have made the effort to stay safe in spite of the brain dead in their midst.

Whatever action is taken it will of course be ignored by too many so the situation will continue to get worse.

My post number 7976 gave my thoughts on what has happened.

I don’t think the situation can be blamed on just people not adhering to the rules. We were doing really well up until November, then it just went mad. I think there are several factors in play, and maybe the mutation in the virus is the catalyst that I mentioned in my post from yesterday.

I don’t really know for sure of course. My main concern is that there seems to be no joined up thinking to get to grips with what’s happening. The local council leadership have been dire. Its not good here right now.

[Gill W]

On balance I have supported the Government as it has tried to plot a course through these unchartered waters.
Sir Hindsight has had nothing to offer in the way of help in this fight.
The massive increase in infections over the last two weeks has however convinced me that it's time the velvet glove was removed from the iron fist
and some immediate draconian action taken to control these viruses until the vaccine takes over.
Here's my plan

Immediately agree with the other three national leaders to cancel the Christmas relaxation. Yes there will be uproar and thousands will ignore the call. The message however will be made loud and strong - stop messing about with this virus and trying to circumvent the rules for personal gain i.e a bag of Wotsits is not a substantial meal.

Tiering
I basically support tiering but the criteria is hardly transparent
However we should immediately add a Tier 4 for the worst cases.
Tier 4 would equate to total lockdown
All non essential shops to close
Essential shopping to be defined
Shops selling essential products should not be allowed to sell non essential items to preserve a level playing field in the market
Hairdressing, personal services and gyms to be closed. No exceptions allowed.
All sporting venues closed
Strict curfew 8pm to 6pm except for work and health
Serious fines for transgression and three strikes and you in the jug/
Move about half tier 3 to tier 4
No promises of relaxation for at least 6 weeks

Get serious get on top of it

Gets flak jacket and retires

I don’t think you need your flak jacket, I think most people here would prefer firm action and the rules to be strictly enforced.

Did you see my answer to your question yesterday? I tried to answer as fully as possible, so would be interested to know what you thought

[towny44]

Which makes what I said Right!

Keith, we are never going to eradicate this virus, the vaccine should allow us to return to some sort of normality, but until then we have to try and live with the virus, without wrecking our economy and without overloading our health service or letting the death rate spiral out of control.
Every country in the world is walking this tightrope, and most are just about managing it, our's included, they need our support not to have people continually complaining about them taking the wrong advice.

Really!!!

You clearly haven’t been watching the news.

Oh’ was it intentional to have left out your apology to me or just an oversight?

Keith, the media will always find the worse case scenario to report, they are never going to comment on how many other hospitals have lots of spare capacity.

[david63]

One of the major problems with Covid data is that there is very little accurate data - most of it is estimates and projections.

We have no idea how many people are infected in any area. let alone the country. Yes we know how many positive tests there have been on any given day but that does not mean that we know the total number infected - other than some estimated calculation. Obviously the number of positive tests will rise as people become more aware of the symptoms so they will get tested and testing is targeted at areas where it is believed there is a high infection rate. The only way to have an accurate count of those infected would be to test the whole population every week. Add to this that there is no record of when somebody ceases to have the infection.

There are really only two reliable pieces of data - the number of patients in hospital with Covid and the total number of deaths - even the number of "Covid" deaths is questionable, and certainly not reliable enough to use as a comparison with other countries whose methodology is unknown or unreliable (China for example)

So the Government are in a situation of having to make decisions based on guesswork which is never going to work.

[Gill W]

David, you can find your local information on the government site.

If you enter your postcode, you can get infections rates in your own local council ward.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[towny44]

Just adding to that David, it was commented yesterday that the lateral flow tests in Liverpool only found 50% of infections. But this is only based on the ONS assumed infection level, and yet these statistics are being used to suggest that the lateral flow tests are worthless and should be abandoned. However even if they do only pick up 50%, isn't it better to isolate those rather than none at all.

[towny44]

David, you can find your local information on the government site.

If you enter your postcode, you can get infections rates in your own local council ward.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yes you can, but it is not as useful as the broader data which gives rates per 100000.
As regards NHS stress, is there anywhere online that gives local hospital occupancy rates, and percentage of critical care bed availability?

[david63]

David, you can find your local information on the government site.

If you enter your postcode, you can get infections rates in your own local council ward.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I am well aware of that - but as I said most of the data is estimates.

[Stephen]

Are we becoming a bit obsessive about data.
At the end of the day what will be will be. We all know what tier we are in and what we have to do to keep safe. The government will do what they feel is required for the country, be it what we agree with or not.

[david63]

Are we becoming a bit obsessive about data.

No we are not - but media is and always has been. The bigger the numbers the better, irrespective of what they mean.

[Onelife]

Boris to make an announcement at 4pm

[Stephen]

Are we becoming a bit obsessive about data.

No we are not - but media is and always has been. The bigger the numbers the better, irrespective of what they mean.

Well you could have fooled me David going by all the posts about it on here about it.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I'm mixed about the way ahead. I previously subscribed to the local tiers on the argument that it unfair to penalise business in one area because of rising cases miles away. But part of the problem seems to be different tiers closer together. We have stayed in tier 3, despite rapidly falling cases. But we are only 10 miles from a tier 3 area with much higher cases. If we'd dropped to tier 2 and our pubs had re-opened I've no doubt idiots from down the road would have travelled here to get drunk eat scotch eggs, bringing the disease with them.

If we are to stick with the tier system I think we do need a tier 4, and tight, policed, enforced with big fines, travel bans. Otherwise a very tight national lockdown, not like the last one, may be the only answer.

We'll have to wait and see what Boris has to say.

In the meantime I despair about otherwise intelligent friends of ours who say they are so fed up that if there is another lockdown they'll ignore it, happily get the virus and move on. They're over 70 and one has existing conditions, but they cheerfully believe that only over 80s die and they will be fine. I'm not sure what they mean by ignoring a lockdown other than having a holiday home in Norfolk which they may travel to. If it means inviting us round for dinner we'll politely decline!

[anniec]

I'm not sure what they mean by ignoring a lockdown other than having a holiday home in Norfolk which they may travel to.

I'd be most grateful if they didn't.

[Gill W]

David, you can find your local information on the government site.

If you enter your postcode, you can get infections rates in your own local council ward.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yes you can, but it is not as useful as the broader data which gives rates per 100000.
As regards NHS stress, is there anywhere online that gives local hospital occupancy rates, and percentage of critical care bed availability?

Take a look at the site - it gives the equivalent rate per 100k for your own council ward. It's very localised information. You just need to put your postcode in

As for local hospital rates, perhaps your local NHS trust provides this information. You'd need to research on Google, I think

[Gill W]

David, you can find your local information on the government site.

If you enter your postcode, you can get infections rates in your own local council ward.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I am well aware of that - but as I said most of the data is estimates.

Sorry for trying to help

[Gill W]

Are we becoming a bit obsessive about data.
At the end of the day what will be will be. We all know what tier we are in and what we have to do to keep safe. The government will do what they feel is required for the country, be it what we agree with or not.

Data is what helps me understand what is going on.

I kept track of the infection rates all through the summer, when the rates were really low. It gave me confidence to know that I could go out as the risk was relatively low. When I saw that infections were increasing in October, we still went out, but only very locally. When infections here boomed in mid November, we just stopped going out.

The data helped me make informed decisions and I'd rather know the background to government actions.

[Stephen]

Boris to make an announcement at 4pm

You can guarantee it won’t be good news.