Current Affairs

[screwy]

I just realised, I left the Army 47 yrs ago today.
No, not in disgrace before anyone says it.

[Mervyn and Trish]

You mean you were 50 when they chucked you out!

[david63]

Today there were 6,238 cases, the highest since March 2nd

And the point is? Are these in hospital? are they dying? In fact that is not the number of cases but the number of positive tests - nobody knows how many cases there are.

It does not matter how many cases there are unless they are creating a problem somewhere down the line.

We do not report how many cancer cases there are today, or how many flu cases - this has got to start being put into perspective rather than the media constantly promoting "headline" numbers that are meaningless.

[barney]

I tend to agree David.
The two stats that actually matter are deaths and hospitalisation.
Previously, one has followed the other.

[oldbluefox]

Deaths should have been recorded on those who have died of Covid rather than with it.
I don't understand why somebody who gets run over counts in the figures if they may have had Covid earlier. It wasn't the virus which killed them.

[Quizzical Bob]

I genuinely feel sorry for the individuals caught up on the Amber list for Portugal but every single one of them booked a holiday full in the knowledge that things could change.
To listen to people on LBC whining this morning about the government changing the rules was pathetic.
They didn’t change the rules. The clearly warned that situations could and probably would change.
It’s really about time people started taking responsibility for their own decisions.

No. It’s about time the government started letting the people be free. That means letting people take responsibility for their own decisions.

[Quizzical Bob]

Today there were 6,238 cases, the highest since March 2nd ... there's no time to bug*er about giving two weeks notice

And why is that a problem? Time to set the people free.

[towny44]

Today there were 6,238 cases, the highest since March 2nd ... there's no time to bug*er about giving two weeks notice

And why is that a problem? Time to set the people free.

Why do Germany, Italy and Spain now have lower cases than the UK, are they all on a higher lockdown status than us, or do their citizens follow the rules better than we do?
If the latter then setting us free could be disastrous.

[david63]

Why do Germany, Italy and Spain now have lower cases than the UK,

Are they testing the same number that the UK is testing? The more you test the more positive results you will get.

[Stephen]

Freedom, yes, but only when it’s safe. Fans returning from the match in Portugal was a classic example with many testing positive.

Crowded stadium or beach, the results will be the same in any country that isn’t COVID free. If we let things slip now then we only have ourselves to blame when it all goes pear shape.

Just my opinion of course.

[Manoverboard]

Today there were 6,238 cases, the highest since March 2nd ... there's no time to bug*er about giving two weeks notice

And why is that a problem? Time to set the people free.

If there is a surge in cases / positive tests then it surely follows that there will be another wave probably resulting in more unnecessary deaths ... for me the hot spots have to be resolved.

[Onelife]

Freedom, yes, but only when it’s safe. Fans returning from the match in Portugal was a classic example with many testing positive.

Crowded stadium or beach, the results will be the same in any country that isn’t COVID free. If we let things slip now then we only have ourselves to blame when it all goes pear shape.

Just my opinion of course.

...and mine

[david63]

If there is a surge in cases / positive tests then it surely follows that there will be another wave probably resulting in more unnecessary deaths ... for me the hot spots have to be resolved.

But the current evidence appears to indicate that those who have been fully vaccinated are far less likely to end up in hospital and then die, and of those who do die then most have other conditions.

There is going to be wave after wave of Covid for years along with mutations - this is the nature of a virus and we need to start accepting it and learning to live with it.

I do not care how many "positive tests" there are as they are not a problem until, or if, they translate into hospitalisations which does not appear to be happening at the moment.

[Manoverboard]

I do not care how many "positive tests" there are as they are not a problem until, or if, they translate into hospitalisations which does not appear to be happening at the moment.

That being the case then I assume you are living a normal pre Covid life.

I/we prefer to wait for a couple of weeks before we even think about venturing back into anything approaching normality. I/we wish to see how things pan out following the recent Bank Holiday and I doubt that folks in the safer parts of the country actually want to be invaded by hoards of irresponsible infected folk from the Hot Spots.

[david63]

That being the case then I assume you are living a normal pre Covid life.

Within the bounds of what is possible/allowed/legal then the answer is yes

[Mervyn and Trish]

The various opinions here just show the difficult choice the government faces. I just hope that if they do take the brakes off and it goes pear shaped those advocating that course won't be criticising the decision.

[Onelife]

If there is a surge in cases / positive tests then it surely follows that there will be another wave probably resulting in more unnecessary deaths ... for me the hot spots have to be resolved.

But the current evidence appears to indicate that those who have been fully vaccinated are far less likely to end up in hospital and then die, and of those who do die then most have other conditions.

There is going to be wave after wave of Covid for years along with mutations - this is the nature of a virus and we need to start accepting it and learning to live with it.

I do not care how many "positive tests" there are as they are not a problem until, or if, they translate into hospitalisations which does not appear to be happening at the moment.

We are going to have to live with some amount of covid but I’m with Mob. Rising numbers of cases are concerning. There are many people still not vaccinated, some by choice, but there lives still matter. Some have low immunity and can’t get anywhere a normal life at present. And there are many people getting long covid. David, you say that those who are vaccinated and get ill have other conditions. there live matter too. Also, more cases mean more chance of variants developing.

[Kendhni]

If there is a surge in cases / positive tests then it surely follows that there will be another wave probably resulting in more unnecessary deaths ... for me the hot spots have to be resolved.

But the current evidence appears to indicate that those who have been fully vaccinated are far less likely to end up in hospital and then die, and of those who do die then most have other conditions.

There is going to be wave after wave of Covid for years along with mutations - this is the nature of a virus and we need to start accepting it and learning to live with it.

I do not care how many "positive tests" there are as they are not a problem until, or if, they translate into hospitalisations which does not appear to be happening at the moment.

We are going to have to live with some amount of covid but I’m with Mob. Rising numbers of cases are concerning. There are many people still not vaccinated, some by choice, but there lives still matter. Some have low immunity and can’t get anywhere a normal life at present. And there are many people getting long covid. David, you say that those who are vaccinated and get ill have other conditions. there live matter too. Also, more cases mean more chance of variants developing.

The problem is that there is nothing left in our arsenal to fight this. We have deployed our best weapons and irrespective of whether or not they work we now have to deal with this going forward. Different people will take different approaches. Some will choose to remain hunkered down, others will try to return to normality (or as close as they feel safe with) - some will even tell others to return to normality while they remain hunkered down. Delusion is not going to make this one go away - this is reality

There are only 2 choices, either we start learning to live with this, knowing we have done our best and thousands are still likely to die, or we remain in total lockdown. Shutting borders helps but does not prevent the disease from moving around the world (at best its slows it down a bit) - this was always going to be a problem with our strategy based on (to quote Johnson) 'capitalism and greed' - we may protect ourselves but that does not open up the world economies, something we need to move forward.

Following the scientific fact based advice always was and always will be the best approach. Sadly our government does not have a good track record in following this advice themselves (despite what they claim).

[david63]

There are many people still not vaccinated, some by choice,

And as far as I am concerned those who have chosen not to be vaccinated are on their own and do not warrant inclusion in any discussion.

Some have low immunity and can’t get anywhere a normal life at present

But that is nothing new - those have been in this situation for a long time.

David, you say that those who are vaccinated and get ill have other conditions.

Yes and because of the skewed statistics we do not know what they actually died from.

We are going to have to live with some amount of covid

Currently there are less than 10 deaths a day from Covid - there are in excess of 400 deaths a day (on average) from cancer and a similar amount from coronary heart disease but neither of those get a mention in the daily news broadcasts because we have accepted that level of deaths.

Using those figures more have died from cancer since the start of the pandemic than have died from Covid.

[Manoverboard]

... Using those figures more have died from cancer since the start of the pandemic than have died from Covid.

But not one cancer death was a consequence of some bloke coughing on them ... just saying.

[Gill W]

For the record, I believe we should be proceeding very cautiously.

It appears that the pandemic is growing again here, so the current restrictions aren't containing it, so it looks to me to be the wrong time to be making the restrictions even looser.

Also the population is still only partially vaccinated - they should at least wait until more people are fully vaccinated.

This date of 21st June seems to have become an important talisman. I'm not sure why, as it's supposed to be about the data, not the dates.

[towny44]

For the record, I believe we should be proceeding very cautiously.

It appears that the pandemic is growing again here, so the current restrictions aren't containing it, so it looks to me to be the wrong time to be making the restrictions even looser.

Also the population is still only partially vaccinated - they should at least wait until more people are fully vaccinated.

This date of 21st June seems to have become an important talisman. I'm not sure why, as it's supposed to be about the data, not the dates.

Whilst agreeing with much of what you say Gill, I do think that with 50% fully vaccinated and over 75% having had 1 jab, we are fast approaching the accepted herd immunity level which should suppress transmission. This should result in reduced hospitalisation and much lower death rates, and as David keeps telling us, our high infection levels could be due to the surge testing in certain areas, so we should resist comparing our rates with other countries.

[Stephen]

Only in America

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57368211

[Mervyn and Trish]

For the record, I believe we should be proceeding very cautiously.

It appears that the pandemic is growing again here, so the current restrictions aren't containing it, so it looks to me to be the wrong time to be making the restrictions even looser.

Also the population is still only partially vaccinated - they should at least wait until more people are fully vaccinated.

This date of 21st June seems to have become an important talisman. I'm not sure why, as it's supposed to be about the data, not the dates.

I'm with you Gill for a little caution. Boris originally said that all restrictions would be lifted " not before" 21st June, not "on" 21st June. It is the media who have made it the latter. I'd rather pause for a couple of weeks than charge ahead and then have to retreat again.

I'm particularly nervous as we've just had a blip locally focussed on three schools and two hospitality venues including some Delta variant cases. Anyone with connections to any local school was asked to test, which we did because of our grandchildren being pupils. Fortunately negative. They're also establishing a centre at our local community hospital next week for a vaccine blitz. Hope they nip it in the bud.

[Gill W]

For the record, I believe we should be proceeding very cautiously.

It appears that the pandemic is growing again here, so the current restrictions aren't containing it, so it looks to me to be the wrong time to be making the restrictions even looser.

Also the population is still only partially vaccinated - they should at least wait until more people are fully vaccinated.

This date of 21st June seems to have become an important talisman. I'm not sure why, as it's supposed to be about the data, not the dates.

Whilst agreeing with much of what you say Gill, I do think that with 50% fully vaccinated and over 75% having had 1 jab, we are fast approaching the accepted herd immunity level which should suppress transmission. This should result in reduced hospitalisation and much lower death rates, and as David keeps telling us, our high infection levels could be due to the surge testing in certain areas, so we should resist comparing our rates with other countries.

Those figures are for the adult population, not the whole population- so I feel we are a little way off herd immunity just yet.

Another hazard is that there is some ‘vaccine escape’ with the delta variant, meaning that the vaccines aren’t quite so effective on that variant.

As there is always a lag on the hospitalisations after infection, I think the powers that be would be wise to wait a few extra weeks - but it there is not a significant uptick in hospital admissions, it will look hopeful.

Even if there is a loosening of restrictions, I think masks and some form of distancing will be needed for the foreseeable