Current Affairs

[Kendhni]

I read a good one the other day (not sure if true or not)

A man, wearing a mask, entered lift to find several people already onboard with no masks. They ribbed and jibed him for a bit about being chicken by wearing a mask. After a while the man took off the mask and said "it is nice to meet people who are not scared of me, just because I have coronavirus".

[Gill W]

Especially for Towny.

Here’s your weekly ONS update.

In England, week ending 26th June, they say that 1 in 260 people has Covid.

Up from 1 in 440 last week

[oldbluefox]

........ and the hospitalisation figures?

[barney]

........ and the hospitalisation figures?

North Devon hospital has not had a single case for three months but now has two people, both Grockles.
That’s a 200% increase.

[oldbluefox]

That's scary. Should I be worried? Asking for a friend.

[towny44]

Especially for Towny.

Here’s your weekly ONS update.

In England, week ending 26th June, they say that 1 in 260 people has Covid.

Up from 1 in 440 last week

Thank you Gill, but knowing how terribly scared you are about the possibility that this pandemic might soon catch up with you, I will understand if you bow out of posting and hunker down in your lead lined bunker for the next few years.

[Quizzical Bob]

........ and the hospitalisation figures?

North Devon hospital has not had a single case for three months but now has two people, both Grockles.
That’s a 200% increase.

It’s even worse than that! It’s an infinity% increase from zero to two.

[Quizzical Bob]

Especially for Towny.

Here’s your weekly ONS update.

In England, week ending 26th June, they say that 1 in 260 people has Covid.

Up from 1 in 440 last week

Covid was 24th in the list of causes of death in England in May, or 0.9% of all deaths. In Wales it was 31st at 0.6% of all fatalities.

What exactly are you worried about?

[Manoverboard]

The thought of laying in a hospital bed struggling to get one's breath should be a frightening thought to everybody ... just saying

[Stephen]

The thought of laying in a hospital bed struggling to get one's breath should be a frightening thought to everybody ... just saying

I know what that feels like without COVID.

[Kendhni]

I know what that feels like without COVID.

COPD or sex life?

[Gill W]

........ and the hospitalisation figures?

You can look that up your self?

I’m doing this as a one off for Towny

[Gill W]

[quote=oldbluefox post_id=304179 time=<a href="tel:1625256097">1625256097</a> user_id=244]
........ and the hospitalisation figures?

You can look that up your self?

I’m doing this as a one off for Towny

Thank you Gill, but knowing how terribly scared you are about the possibility that this pandemic might soon catch up with you, I will understand if you bow out of posting and hunker down in your lead lined bunker for the next few years.

What ARE you going on about.

I was out all day yesterday

The thought of laying in a hospital bed struggling to get one's breath should be a frightening thought to everybody ... just saying

Quite right, Moby. This remains an illness with potentially nasty outcomes. Even if people think they are immune because of their 2 jabs (they are not) i think it’s too soon to be taking it lightly when thousands around the world are still dying

[Stephen]

I know what that feels like without COVID.

COPD or sex life?

Not the first. Just looking up about the second one.

[oldbluefox]

........ and the hospitalisation figures?

You can look that up your self?

I am led to believe there's little correlation between infections and hospitalisation figures but I'm not the one having kittens. I thought you might know, that's all.

[Kendhni]

I am led to believe there's little correlation between infections and hospitalisation figures .

I always thought there was a direct correlation. As number of detected cases rose then the number of hospitalisations usually started rising a couple of weeks later (and the number of deaths a few weeks after that again). We are actually seeing that at the minute with a slight rise in the number of hospitalisations (and deaths) since the low in May ... hopefully the vaccination program will significantly flatten the spikes we have seen over the last year or so.

[oldbluefox]

Hospitalisations are significantly lower as a consequence of the vaccine programme, and similarly deaths so you cannot compare the increase in cases in the same way you could compare them from 12 months ago. There is an increase in hospital cases but nothing like we have experienced before. Because of the vaccination program it is no longer a direct correlation.

[Gill W]

Hospitalisations are significantly lower as a consequence of the vaccine programme, and similarly deaths so you cannot compare the increase in cases in the same way you could compare them from 12 months ago. There is an increase in hospital cases but nothing like we have experienced before. Because of the vaccination program it is no longer a direct correlation.

Nobody is trying to compare now with what happened 12 months ago. It's a completely different situation now. We have the vaccine and we also have the delta variant.

What hasn't changed is that there is always a lag between a positive test, hospitalisation and death. According to the government web site, positive tests have ballooned this week, up 74.2% on the last seven days. Therefore in the next couple of weeks we will see increases in hospitalisations and subsequently deaths. I have already acknowledged that this wave will probably be different. The people currently catching COVID are younger, so, even if they do end up in hospital, they are unlikely to need such intensive treatment and will probably stay in hospital for a shorter time. But there is still a correlation between catching the virus and hospitalisation - it looks as if it is not such a strong correlation - but the link is not completely broken

However -

Do the maths - if positive tests continue to rise at 74% week on week, we quickly get to massive numbers. Even in a partially vaccinated population this will put pressure on the NHS, who are trying to catch up with the backlog of treatment for other illnesses.

I've already mentioned the other reasons why it is not desirable to have a virus running rampant.

This is not 'having kittens', it's an analysis of the situation we are currently experiencing.

[Quizzical Bob]

Hospitalisations are significantly lower as a consequence of the vaccine programme, and similarly deaths so you cannot compare the increase in cases in the same way you could compare them from 12 months ago. There is an increase in hospital cases but nothing like we have experienced before. Because of the vaccination program it is no longer a direct correlation.

We are not being told the demographics of those being hospitalised but apparently stays are much shorter than previously.

[Mervyn and Trish]

While the number of infections is in some ways worrying there are a number of factors at play here as well as the Delta variant. We continue, for example, to test more people than any other EU country, so it's not surprising we find more cases. I'm not for one minute advocating the "stop testing to keep cases down" argument, but now the mortality has apparently fallen from around 1 in 60 cases to nearer 1 in a thousand I am returning to the comparison with flu.

Around 17,000 people die every year from flu, and that is despite a well established vaccination programme and many years experience of treating the worst affected patients. And we actually have no real idea how many flu cases there are because for one thing we don't proactively go out and test for it, and for another the vast majority of people with flu treat themselves at home and the NHS is unaware of them. Only a minority seek professional help. Is that where we are headed with Covid longer term?

Another thought is that, while infections are rising steeply, how much longer might that continue before it naturally peaks and starts to die back? With 63% of people now double-jabbed, and 85% single-jabbed, plus a significant number with natural immunity having had the virus, how close are we to the magic herd immunity, where the virus dies back because it has nowhere to go? It can only survive for a limited time in the environment without a convenient vulnerable host. With those in increasingly short supply how soon before the R number falls below 1 and the pandemic decays?

[anniec]

Today's Sunday Times has some interesting facts and figures, which delve a little deeper into the rather uninformative information we're being given:

Figures modelled by PHE (yes, I know how good these have been so far...) suggest the vaccination programme has averted 7.15 million cases and saved 27,200 lives so far. Cases have soared again in the past week with cases of the Delta variant rising 46%. Hospital figures are edging up, but these are largely young unvaccinated people.

Of 92,029 people who tested positive for the Delta variant between February 1 and June 21, 7,235 had received both doses of vaccine at least two weeks before, according to PHE. Of those just 348 needed to go to hospital, 190 required overnight admission, and 50 died. The vast majority - 82,000 -have been under 50, many of them vaccinated only recently. Six of the eight deaths in this age range were unvaccinated and two had received only one dose.

Nobody in England under the age of 50 has died of the Delta variant after receiving both shots of the vaccine.

[Manoverboard]

There are however a number, us included, who have been double jabbed but the effects will wear off resulting in a very large new group of returning victims for the virus to infect ... yes / no ?

[Stephen]

There are however a number, us included, who have been double jabbed but the effects will wear off resulting in a very large new group of returning victims for the virus to infect ... yes / no ?

Depends how quick the booster jab gets rolled out.

[Onelife]

There are however a number, us included, who have been double jabbed but the effects will wear off resulting in a very large new group of returning victims for the virus to infect ... yes / no ?

More likely than not would be my best guess. I personally still wear my mask when out and about and will continue to do so until such time that there is a booster jab available for my age bracket.

[Gill W]

Wearing a mask has always been primarily to protect the people around us. I'll be continuing to wear my mask, as I have done for the last year, particularly when the rate of infection is so high - it's a courtesy to those around me. I hope people continue to extend the courtesy to me.