Current Affairs

[Manoverboard]

He will have a problem if his gamble doesn’t pay off…the next two months are make or break for his leadership.

Whatever happens during the next two months good old Boris will still be our PM

ps ... good you can talk to your sisters, sibling rivalry can be a real destroyer

[Gill W]

You are looking at it wrongly - correlation is not causation (no matter how you spin it). What Johnson gets 'hammered for' is not following the advice that his own scientific team gives him - only the other night Johnson was saying one thing and Whitty something different. Johnsons decisions are driven purely by politics and populist opinion rather than scientific evidence. He is known for 'winging it' in the hope that he might get it right (and sometimes he does, but that is often by luck rather than plan).

The plan now looks suspiciously like herd immunity. It seems like an exceptionally high risk gamble. If it works, it would be astonishing. If not we are going to be in for a very bad time

To be honest, it feels like we are lab rats in a giant experiment.

[Kendhni]

What Johnson gets 'hammered for' is not following the advice that his own scientific team gives him

Two points here

1. Boris's "scientific team" cannot agree amongst themselves over any matter to do with Covid and when there is a piece of advice given to Boris all those that oppose that advice start spouting off to the media creating an impression that they are right and Boris and the other scientific advisors are wrong.

The sage group was put into place, by the government, to provide advice throughout this pandemic. I agree that there is no one size fits all advice but when the government has blatantly ignored the advice it is being given about timings from the group, it put in place to provide that advice, then something is not right.

2. Some of Boris's critics accept that not only does Boris have to take into account the scientific advice but also advice from many other quarters - health service, economy, metal health, businesses etc.. Just because the scientific advice is not the dominant advice does not mean that it is not part of the equation.

Indeed but there are many areas that this government is failing to acknowledge.
If the 4th wave takes off then there is still an expectation that the NHS could be overwhelmed again in which case (according to one of the scientists) could lead to a more prolonged lockdown (than a small delay might give).
The one thing about Johnson is that he never has a plan (something stated by many that work with him). In this case he seems to simply expect to return to the status quo of a couple of years ago. He has failed to consider the environmental impact, social impact and mental health of people being forced back into offices. He is also missing on a unique opportunity to redesign the economy and society to better suit the 21st century.

I have always been in favour of getting the economy going but it has to be done in a controlled, responsible and reversible manner taking into account individual choice (where appropriate). Johnson just thinks in terms of big bang, the job has been done ... but, as is his way, he leaves a get out clause by pushing the real decision making onto others so that he can claim it wasn't his fault.

Boris may have got it wrong or Boris may have got it right - we will never know because there is nothing to compare it with - and hopefully there never will be.

No, Johnson has got things wrong and he has got things right (no different to anyone else - except that his rights and wrongs affect lives and livelihoods). We do have comparatives which is why we have metrics (oft quoted) such as
- his refusal to go into lockdown cost X lives
- his lifting of lockdown early cost Y lives
- his handling of the vaccine rollout has saved Z lives


PS: Hope all went well at the hospital with you.

[Kendhni]

The plan now looks suspiciously like herd immunity. It seems like an exceptionally high risk gamble. If it works, it would be astonishing. If not we are going to be in for a very bad time

To be honest, it feels like we are lab rats in a giant experiment.

If the gamble works you can be assured that Johnson will be up front and centre taking credit; if it fails you can guarantee he will roll out the scapegoats and buck pass the blame onto others (standard civil service procedure). Was that not always Hancocks' role?

Our own CMO said that if we can get vaccine levels up to 90% (first jab) and as high as possible (second jab) then we should achieve a reasonable degree of herd immunity - but no guarantees against mutations/variants. Fingers crossed we have done enough.

It appears other countries are waiting to see how things go in the UK - guess we are their lab rats!!

[towny44]

I think we, that's the govt supporters, are the cuddly water voles, the left wing rabble are the rats.

[david63]

- his refusal to go into lockdown cost X lives
- his lifting of lockdown early cost Y lives
- his handling of the vaccine rollout has saved Z lives

Only the last one is fact based - the other two are opinion based.

[Kendhni]

- his refusal to go into lockdown cost X lives
- his lifting of lockdown early cost Y lives
- his handling of the vaccine rollout has saved Z lives

Only the last one is fact based - the other two are opinion based.

I would say all 3 are opinion based - none of them can be calculated conclusively

[screwy]

And opinions are like Arseholes, everyone has one.

[Jan Rosser]

And opinions are like Arseholes, everyone has one.

I don't follow this thread normally but flicked through and burst out laughing at this never a truer statement Screwy

[Ray B]

Jan, Screwy should know, he worked with loads of them.

[Onelife]

This “Cruise Forum” would have struggled without the Arseholes..Just saying!

[towny44]

This “Cruise Forum” would have struggled without the Arseholes..Just saying!

Which particular a***holes have kept our forum afloat, in your opinion of course.

[Onelife]

This “Cruise Forum” would have struggled without the Arseholes..Just saying!

Which particular a***holes have kept our forum afloat, in your opinion of course.

You and me

[barney]

This “Cruise Forum” would have struggled without the Arseholes..Just saying!

Which particular a***holes have kept our forum afloat, in your opinion of course.

I suspect that onelife is looking in a westerly direction

[Kendhni]

South west

[Gill W]

It time for Towny's weekly round up.

Per ONS - estimate for England 1 in 160 have COVID 19 (week ending 3rd July). Up from 1 in 260 last week

Per UK Government dashboard. On 8th July, 32551 tested positive, a rise of 34.9% over the week.

I was asked about hospitalisations by OBF last week, so I will now now include this in Towny's roundup.

Info from Covid 19 Actuaries Response Group, for England only (I expect this can be checked with PHE

Hospital Admissions on 8th July - 458
7 day average 360, up 58%
Implied doubling time 11 days.
Half of admissions aged under 45 - it is hoped that their stay in hospital will therefore be shorter

Covid 19 ARG also say that deaths rose by 73% in the week for England - they don't give a numerical figure, from the graph it looks like highest figure was 27 in a day.

Last week, I said that I thought the positive tests would be 40000 by today. This was conservative based on the weekly increase figure at the time, which was 74.2%. The weekly increase figure is now down to 34.9%. It doesn't feel as if the rate of increase has slowed - I suspect that many people aren't bothering to get tested when they should. Ignorance is bliss when they want to go down the pub with their friends for the football.

Pings from the NHS App seem to be increasing - and the projection is that millions will end up self isolating at the same time. To counter that, the idea is tp make the app less sensitive - so that will mean people won't go for testing and potentially spread the virus round! I said months ago that you can't run an economy successfully with a virus ripping through the population. There'll be so many off in isolation or off sick, businesses will struggle to cope.

I think it will be even more down hill from here. Scientists, doctors, the WHO think the strategy of removing restrictions when a wave of virus is growing is not the right thing to do. The world watches us with disbelief. Our situation could get very bad in the upcoming weeks, especially as there will be multiple infections due to all the football mingling.

What happens now is down to Johnson. He delayed putting India on the red list (not hindsight, this was widely discussed at the time) and allowed the delta variant to seed. Instead of at least waiting until the adult and older children population is fully vaccinated, he's throwing off all restrictions when the pandemic is growing again - utterly reckless and downright dangerous. He's lost control of this pandemic, he's bored of it, so he's giving up. No other country in the world is adopting this strategy.

This is on his head.


Sorry if this is not what you want to hear, but this is my analysis.

Edited to add - could Johnson do the ultimate reverse ferret, and not remove restrictions after all? He has form for U turns. e.g Christmas

[Kendhni]

What happens now is down to Johnson.
This is on his head.

I read that and it reminded me of Lord Faquaad's speech in Shrek "some of you may day but it is a sacrifice I am willing to make".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiKuxfcSrEU

Being a typical civil servant I am sure his speech writers have already provided him with a 'it isn't my fault it is the publics fault" speech. It will be interesting to see if there is any the fall out from the large gatherings of the football tournament going on.

[screwy]

Or maybe another theory might be, the ones catching it and going to hospital and possibly dying are the ones who couldn’t be arsed to get jabbed.?

[Gill W]

I saw something about that, but can’t find it now. But more vaccinated people died than non vaccinated. If I find it again, I’ll post the info

[oldbluefox]

Just to add a little more context to Gill's figures which I found on the BBC News website:
"These rises are driven by the Delta variant and, although infection rates are now similar to February, it is hoped fewer people will go on to become ill with severe symptoms, because of the vaccination programme.
Recent government figures suggest that vaccines have already reduced hospital admissions and deaths.
Fewer than one in 1,000 infections is now leading to a death - compared with one in 60 last winter............
Positive tests rose in all age groups, except among those aged 70 and over.
Virus levels in England were highest in the young, particularly those aged 17 to 24 and children in school years 7-11".

Personally I am not surprised that the young in our population have the highest virus levels based on what I have seen of their behaviour over the past year. It would help the situation if more people followed the guidelines instead of fooling themselves the pandemic is over. Scenes from the football gatherings are indeed a great worry. No football match is worth that risk.

[Gill W]

The guidelines are apparently being ripped up on 19th July and people are told that it’s ok to use personal judgement. The idea of freedom day, or Johnson’s terminus day has taken root. Some people genuinely think the pandemic is over.

As the message is government sanctioned, it’s going to be difficult to blame these misguided people for their actions post 19th July.

I have a bigger issue with the people who know the pandemic is not yet over, but are ditching all public health measures anyway

[Quizzical Bob]

The guidelines are apparently being ripped up on 19th July and people are told that it’s ok to use personal judgement. The idea of freedom day, or Johnson’s terminus day has taken root. Some people genuinely think the pandemic is over.

As the message is government sanctioned, it’s going to be difficult to blame these misguided people for their actions post 19th July.

I have a bigger issue with the people who know the pandemic is not yet over, but are ditching all public health measures anyway

Whatever, we cannot carry on in lockdown and we just have to roll with the outcome. We gave it our best shot with the most severe lockdown in the world and ruined countless businesses and all that we have done is to spread out the hump in infections. Still, we saved the NHS, didn’t we?

Meanwhile parts of the rest of the world get back to normal without all the fuss.

[david63]

I have a bigger issue with the people who know the pandemic is not yet over, but are ditching all public health measures anyway

And from my recent experience many of those are in the NHS

[oldbluefox]

I have a bigger issue with the people who know the pandemic is not yet over, but are ditching all public health measures anyway

Hence it makes no difference whether we are in lockdown or not these people will carry on ignoring the measures anyway meanwhile the economy stagnates and businesses go to the wall.

[towny44]

Apart from QB Barney and maybe myself, most of you seem not to be able to appreciate the changed situation that the vaccine and our rapid roll out has produced. Yes the infection rates, mainly in those not yet vaccinated , will continue to rise, but they will begin to fall back as the susceptible numbers reduce, and the virus runs out of victims. How serious this will be to the NHS remains to be seen, but so far the evidence is that hospitalisation is mainly in the under 40s and their recovery rate is much better than the early waves elderly victims.
If the media reports about our economy being the hardest hit among major G7 countries are true, then we definitely need to press the economic accelerator soon, if we are to ensure our recovery potential is maximised.