Current Affairs

[Quizzical Bob]

The number of deaths caused by Covid is way below the worst winter for deaths caused by flu. Nobody ever suggested a lockdown in previous winters.

So far, in 18 months the official death toll is 128000 for Covid, and that is with all the lockdowns and mitigation’s that we have had in place. Can you imagine how many deaths would have happened without lockdown? Of course, the deaths are the tip of the iceberg. It doesn’t include the people that have survived with organ damage and all the thousands whose lives have been changed due to long Covid

In a bad flu season, about 30000 die

https://www.health.org.uk/publications ... oved-wrong

I genuinely don’t understand how you can contend that Covid deaths are way below flu deaths.

However, the good news for you is that the government are doing what you want so you don’t need to complain about ‘being in lockdown’. You are getting your heart’s desire on 19th, so be happy and enjoy it.

It might not be so good for other people, but you can ‘crack on with life’

You are still living in the past. Deaths last year have no relationship to deaths this year, all thanks to the vaccines. If you spend all your time looking over your shoulder you’ll never get anywhere.

At present, Covid deaths are not significant. They are around twentieth in the list of causes of death at the present time.

“It might not be so good For other people”

What do you mean by that? I cannot ‘crack on with life’. Millions of others have seen their finances devastated and are up to their ears in debt, debt that will never be paid back. They cannot crack on with anything. This has now become a pandemic of the young. Things have changed. The only people who are going to suffer are those who refuse to take the option of a vaccine.

[Stephen]

Says it all really.


Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'Not having the vaccine is the biggest mistake of my life’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-57866661

[Manoverboard]

At present, Covid deaths are not significant. They are around twentieth in the list of causes of death at the present time.

Of the other 19 how many could you get by travelling on the London Underground ?

[Gill W]

Bob, I really don’t want to fall out with you.

But, let’s do some back of the envelope maths.

If we say that currently, 50 people a day are dying. People don’t drop down dead the minute they get covid, they die about 4 weeks later. The people currently dying got infected when reported cases were 10000 a day.

Yesterday, reported cases were over 50000. Therefore, in 4 weeks time, deaths will be 250 a day. Or 1750 per week.

But it doesn’t stop there.

If we use a conservative estimate of 14 days for doubling time, we will be at 100000 cases a day by the end of the month. Therefore 500 deaths a day by the end of August. Or 3500 a week. Or 15000 a month.

But it doesn’t stop there. Nothing is being done to stop the current wave, in fact, mitigations are being removed. Another 14 day doubling brings us to 200000 cases a day by mid August. Thats 1000 deaths a day by mid September . 7000 deaths a week. And it’s not even winter.

I don’t know how you can say I’m looking backwards, when I’m actually doing the calculations to see where we could be in quite a short space of time.

Currently, just over half the population is fully vaccinated. Many younger people are still awaiting their second jab. It’s not their fault that the government is dropping all restrictions before they’ve had a chance to get their second jab. Not to mention all the children who haven’t even got the chance of getting a vaccine. Also, double vaccinated people are still catching Covid.

It is indeed now a pandemic amongst predominantly younger people in the U.K., and they are less likely to die. But thousands are being left with long Covid, which may affect their lives for years to come. It’s so 2020 to still believe that Covid is not a problem for young people.

Bob, I can see you are angry, but I don’t think what is happening now is going to improve anything.

[screwy]

Last night on BBC NW tonight, Professor Semple , a regular contributor said “ people who don’t like the vaccine, get the virus instead,it’s much worse.”

[david63]

in 4 weeks time, deaths will be 250 a day.

Still significantly less than the number dying each day from cancer or heart disease.

If we use a conservative estimate of 14 days for doubling time, we will be at 100000 cases a day by the end of the month. Therefore 500 deaths a day by the end of August. Or 3500 a week. Or 15000 a month.

The basic flaw in that logic is that the Delta variant has peaked in some areas, notably the North West where it started, and is now declining therefore the rate will not be that high.

[Onelife]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... xperts-say

[Quizzical Bob]

At present, Covid deaths are not significant. They are around twentieth in the list of causes of death at the present time.

Of the other 19 how many could you get by travelling on the London Underground ?

Stress is a big killer. I resolved long ago never to use the Tube and to walk instead. I don’t go to London very often but when I do walk the biggest danger is getting flattened by smartphone zombies walking straight into you.

Life is a terminal condition. We have to get used to it.

[Quizzical Bob]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... xperts-say

You can always find ‘some people’ if you look hard enough.

[Quizzical Bob]

Bob, I really don’t want to fall out with you.

But, let’s do some back of the envelope maths.

If we say that currently, 50 people a day are dying. People don’t drop down dead the minute they get covid, they die about 4 weeks later. The people currently dying got infected when reported cases were 10000 a day.

Yesterday, reported cases were over 50000. Therefore, in 4 weeks time, deaths will be 250 a day. Or 1750 per week.

But it doesn’t stop there.

If we use a conservative estimate of 14 days for doubling time, we will be at 100000 cases a day by the end of the month. Therefore 500 deaths a day by the end of August. Or 3500 a week. Or 15000 a month.

But it doesn’t stop there. Nothing is being done to stop the current wave, in fact, mitigations are being removed. Another 14 day doubling brings us to 200000 cases a day by mid August. Thats 1000 deaths a day by mid September . 7000 deaths a week. And it’s not even winter.

I don’t know how you can say I’m looking backwards, when I’m actually doing the calculations to see where we could be in quite a short space of time.

Currently, just over half the population is fully vaccinated. Many younger people are still awaiting their second jab. It’s not their fault that the government is dropping all restrictions before they’ve had a chance to get their second jab. Not to mention all the children who haven’t even got the chance of getting a vaccine. Also, double vaccinated people are still catching Covid.

It is indeed now a pandemic amongst predominantly younger people in the U.K., and they are less likely to die. But thousands are being left with long Covid, which may affect their lives for years to come. It’s so 2020 to still believe that Covid is not a problem for young people.

Bob, I can see you are angry, but I don’t think what is happening now is going to improve anything.

No problems Gill.

I don’t think you appreciate the severity of this prolonged and severe lockdown and the effects it has had on health, wellbeing and finances. We don’t even know how effective it has been and which aspects of it were important and which made no difference.

You are projecting increased infection levels in a finite population. They cannot and will not continue to increase exponentially. Long Covid is still a matter for debate. Some doctors attribute the same reported symptoms to prolonged lockdown. There’s a simple prevention against it. Get vaccinated. Otherwise we are restricting the whole population so that the youngsters can go around unvaccinated shouting in each other’s drunken faces.

I’m not just angry. I’m furious.

[towny44]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... xperts-say

Quoting the Guardian is equally as bad as quoting the Mail, neither paper is renowned for giving an unbiased assessment.

[Gill W]

Honestly, I do appreciate the effect on finances. My working life was in banking, and I spent many years helping people who were in financial difficulties so I know how it affects people.

I’ve only projected to an infection rate of 200000 per day, and there are millions of available hosts. Letting a virus spread unchecked in a partially vaccinated population is also a perfect way for new variants to form.

Whatever happens next, we are going to be in a bad way. I share your fury. Everybody should be raging about where we are right now.

I have to say, I can’t quite believe the maths myself. I think it’s a self protection thing - surely a government of one of the richest countries in world wouldn’t let a virus rip through its population - that is too awful to contemplate.

[Manoverboard]

Life is a terminal condition. We have to get used to it.

Ok so it's not going on the Underground nor into pubs and restaurants, holidays and stop overs with chums have to be out unless you take your own pillow etc, etc. Could be hard to get used to

[Mervyn and Trish]

As QBob has already said Gill, your back of the envelope maths is fundamentally flawed. Yes cases are rising and will rise further. However every day more and more people are being vaccinated and more and more are acquiring natural immunity through infection. Like all viruses this one will eventually run out of fuel. As well as evidence it has peaked in some areas, nationally the R rate is starting to decrease. The rate of increase in infection will follow suit.

Add to that some other factors. Yes we are opening.up but with many of us stating we will remain cautious I'm not sure how much effect that will have. We're in summer so increasingly socialising is outside. And schools have now closed. With so many of the current cases among young people and parents of school aged children that should help. Workers can go back to the office but there seems to be no rush and many workers will be taking time off in the next 6 weeks. And there are many key places including supermarkets and public transport where face coverings will still be required.

We're certainly not out of the woods and the next few weeks will be tricky but I don't believe they'll be as bad as your simplistic maths suggest.

[screwy]

Now don’t get a strop on Gill but I wouldn’t shout too loud about working in Banking,hardly covered yourselves in glory.!
Lots of smiling emoji

[oldbluefox]

On the whole I believe those who have been abiding by the lockdown and being cautious will continue to do so. Those, along with the anti-lockdown brigade and the anti-vaxers who opt to ignore the precautions will carry on as they always have done and will be the ones who will be most susceptible to the virus. As Boris says it will be our responsibility to exercise caution. We cannot continue with lockdown after lockdown when there are so many who are non-compliant. I am really not surprised by the infection rates when I look at how some people behave so now we may as well open up businesses who can then decide for themselves what precautions they wish to take.

Having said that I wasn't at Wembley, I won't be at Silverstone or the Open golf, I won't be clubbing it or going into any crowded places. To my mind that's playing Russian roulette with the virus. I don't need the government to tell me that.

[Stephen]

Now don’t get a strop on Gill but I wouldn’t shout too loud about working in Banking,hardly covered yourselves in glory.!
Lots of smiling emoji

Now you’ve done it. Hope you’ve got a tin hat

[Stephen]

Health Secretary Sajid Javid tests positive for Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57874744

[Onelife]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... xperts-say

You can always find ‘some people’ if you look hard enough.

[screwy]

Now don’t get a strop on Gill but I wouldn’t shout too loud about working in Banking,hardly covered yourselves in glory.!
Lots of smiling emoji

Now you’ve done it. Hope you’ve got a tin hat

She loves us all really.

[Gill W]

As QBob has already said Gill, your back of the envelope maths is fundamentally flawed. Yes cases are rising and will rise further. However every day more and more people are being vaccinated and more and more are acquiring natural immunity through infection. Like all viruses this one will eventually run out of fuel. As well as evidence it has peaked in some areas, nationally the R rate is starting to decrease. The rate of increase in infection will follow suit.

Add to that some other factors. Yes we are opening.up but with many of us stating we will remain cautious I'm not sure how much effect that will have. We're in summer so increasingly socialising is outside. And schools have now closed. With so many of the current cases among young people and parents of school aged children that should help. Workers can go back to the office but there seems to be no rush and many workers will be taking time off in the next 6 weeks. And there are many key places including supermarkets and public transport where face coverings will still be required.

We're certainly not out of the woods and the next few weeks will be tricky but I don't believe they'll be as bad as your simplistic maths suggest.

Yesterday, 51870 new cases were reported, and there were 61681 1st doses administered. We are getting to a tipping point where the virus is out running the vaccine. As only just over half the population are fully vaccinated there is still a vast pool of people who are at risk. The Government website says that about 5.3 million people have tested positive since this started - however it is unclear how long immunity lasts. Even double vaccinated people can still catch the virus. Unfortunately, the virus still has 10s of millions of hosts.

I do agree that the schools breaking up will help - but now that the numbers are so large, I'm not yet convinced that this firebreak will be enough. The spread of the virus has got up a head of steam and there is no limit on large gatherings. It's not going to subside within a few weeks

The maths may be simplistic, and I sincerely hope that infections, hospitalisations and deaths don't get anywhere near my back of the envelope calculation. Like most of us, when presented with unfeasibly large numbers, my mind just says no, that can't happen. However, strain is going to be put on the NHS and people will die, and it didn't have to be like this.

We are in a bad place,

Now don’t get a strop on Gill but I wouldn’t shout too loud about working in Banking,hardly covered yourselves in glory.!
Lots of smiling emoji

Were you one of the people who couldn't tell the different between a fat cat city banker and Joan the cashier in Barclays in your High Street

Health Secretary Sajid Javid tests positive for Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57874744

You literly can't make this stuff up !

[screwy]

No, I fully understand what happened with the Banks.

Also I can spell. Literally.

[Onelife]

Are you still feeling the love Screwy?

[Gill W]

No, I fully understand what happened with the Banks.

Also I can spell. Literally.

You've never made a typo?

How perfect you are (extreme irony klaxon)

[screwy]

Are you still feeling the love Screwy?

Yeah, she’s just playing hard to get.