Current Affairs

[screwy]

No, I fully understand what happened with the Banks.

Also I can spell. Literally.

You've never made a typo?

How perfect you are (extreme irony klaxon)

2 things you got right in one post.!

[Kendhni]

Now that Javid has tested positive I trust that Johnson will be going into isolation as per the rules he has laid down - or will he do a Cummings and pretend the rules only apply to everyone else.

[Manoverboard]

It is being discussed as per the link, no doubt they will contact you shortly to keep you fully informed

[Kendhni]

It is being discussed as per the link, no doubt they will contact you shortly to keep you fully informed

So glad you posted that I was not aware

[Onelife]

The pilot scheme whereby ‘essential workers’ don’t have to isolate seems to be a sensible approach but I’m struggling to understand how Boris qualifies as an essential worker

[Gill W]

Johnson and Sunak are SO lucky to be on a pilot scheme so they don’t have to isolate.

Of course, it’s viewed as ‘one rule for them and one rule for the rest of us’.

[Stephen]

It is being discussed as per the link, no doubt they will contact you shortly to keep you fully informed

One rule for one, everyone else do as we say. Bl**dy hypocrites

You beat me to it Gill

[Onelife]

Workers are deleting the ‘ping-ping’ NHS app in their droves…who can blame them after this…’you not us example’.

[Gill W]

Well that was the quickest reverse ferret ever.

They are now isolating.

Damage has been done though

[Onelife]

Now why hasn’t that come as any surprise…the man has poor judgment and lacks leadership.

Shouldn't be too long before we see a leadership challenge, and sooner the better in my book.

[towny44]

Gill, as our self proclaimed Cassandra did you happen to catch Ferguson on Andrew Marr this morning, I seem to remember you were a fan of his when he was predicting half a million deaths. However he now appears to be a fan of the UK relaxing the lockdown rules, and predicts the pandemic will begin to wane about mid August as we approach herd immunity levels. Let's hope he is correct this time and you're wrong.

[Onelife]

I watched the AM program this morning and my interpretation of what Ferguson was saying doesn’t concur with yours John. I felt that he was very apprehensive in his predictions, so much so that his reference to crystal ball predictions doesn't to me indicate that he is fully onboard with the relaxation of lockdown rules.

[Onelife]

Andrew Marr show.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/ ... 2795764739

[Kendhni]

If we use a conservative estimate of 14 days for doubling time, we will be at 100000 cases a day by the end of the month. Therefore 500 deaths a day by the end of August. Or 3500 a week. Or 15000 a month.

But it doesn’t stop there. Nothing is being done to stop the current wave, in fact, mitigations are being removed. Another 14 day doubling brings us to 200000 cases a day by mid August. Thats 1000 deaths a day by mid September . 7000 deaths a week. And it’s not even winter.

Hi Gill, I think your calculation relates to a worst possible case and may have been the trend in lockdowns 1 and 2. However with the vaccine we have to allow/hope for 90% efficacy as far as serious COVID is concerned (albeit those that had a dose last Dec/Jan may have a much lower resistance by now). That could still lead to a possible death rate of 100+ per day (based on your numbers, sorry, I haven't had a chance to catch up ... too many other things needing focus at the minute) ... that is still nothing to be proud of ... hopefully there will be a proportionate reduction in the number of hospitalisations (although several hospitals have already started raising alerts). The number of cases becomes just another stat.

This is the first real test of our vaccines and I think everyone is waiting to see what happens. Hopefully the boosters will help us during the winter.

[Kendhni]

I watched the AM program this morning and my interpretation of what Ferguson was saying doesn’t concur with yours John. I felt that he was very apprehensive in his predictions, so much so that his reference to crystal ball predictions doesn't to me indicate that he is fully onboard with the relaxation of lockdown rules.

That would have been my interpretation as well.

[Frank Manning]

Now why hasn’t that come as any surprise…the man has poor judgment and lacks leadership.

Shouldn't be too long before we see a leadership challenge, and sooner the better in my book.

Wash your mouth out!! Don't you know this hero got brexit done? Onwards to victory, etc.

[Quizzical Bob]

If we use a conservative estimate of 14 days for doubling time, we will be at 100000 cases a day by the end of the month. Therefore 500 deaths a day by the end of August. Or 3500 a week. Or 15000 a month.

But it doesn’t stop there. Nothing is being done to stop the current wave, in fact, mitigations are being removed. Another 14 day doubling brings us to 200000 cases a day by mid August. Thats 1000 deaths a day by mid September . 7000 deaths a week. And it’s not even winter.

Hi Gill, I think your calculation relates to a worst possible case and may have been the trend in lockdowns 1 and 2. However with the vaccine we have to allow/hope for 90% efficacy as far as serious COVID is concerned (albeit those that had a dose last Dec/Jan may have a much lower resistance by now). That could still lead to a possible death rate of 100+ per day (based on your numbers, sorry, I haven't had a chance to catch up ... too many other things needing focus at the minute) ... that is still nothing to be proud of ... hopefully there will be a proportionate reduction in the number of hospitalisations (although several hospitals have already started raising alerts). The number of cases becomes just another stat.

This is the first real test of our vaccines and I think everyone is waiting to see what happens. Hopefully the boosters will help us during the winter.

If we didn’t open up we would never know or appreciate how effective they are. All the evidence so far indicates that they will do their intended purpose of allowing us to open up.

The other point is that hospitalisations now involve fewer overnight stays so just considering the number of admissions is not taking into account the whole picture.

[Gill W]

Towny, is the heat getting to you?

It’s you who’s putting labels on me, not myself

I think your memory is playing tricks with you. Apart from talking about his resignation, I can’t even recall talking about Ferguson, let alone being a fan of his.

I didn’t watch Marr, but I went and found a clip, and my take on it is similar to Keith’s.

Ferguson said that 100000 a day is almost certain, and that the schools breaking up might cause a down tick - but the piece I saw didn’t include a prediction of the pandemic waning in mid August, and there was no mention of herd immunity being achieved by that time. indeed, he was talking about a cloudy crystal ball rather than predictions. He also mentioned that there’d be mass disruption if infections got to 200000 a day. I’ve said for weeks that you can’t run a country if a virus is allowed to rip through it.

Incidentally, what I said yesterday was basic maths, not predictions. Surely SOMETHING must happen to stop it….


Just to add a note to Ken. My calculations were based on the current daily case figure of 50000, and two 14 day doublings.

The deaths were on the basis of currently 50 per day, based on 10000 cases a day28 days ago, and then extrapolated from the two 14 day doublings.

[Quizzical Bob]

Towny, is the heat getting to you?

It’s you who’s putting labels on me, not myself

I think your memory is playing tricks with you. Apart from talking about his resignation, I can’t even recall talking about Ferguson, let alone being a fan of his.

I didn’t watch Marr, but I went and found a clip, and my take on it is similar to Keith’s.

Ferguson said that 100000 a day is almost certain, and that the schools breaking up might cause a down tick - but the piece I saw didn’t include a prediction of the pandemic waning in mid August, and there was no mention of herd immunity being achieved by that time. indeed, he was talking about a cloudy crystal ball rather than predictions. He also mentioned that there’d be mass disruption if infections got to 200000 a day. I’ve said for weeks that you can’t run a country if a virus is allowed to rip through it.

Incidentally, what I said yesterday was basic maths, not predictions. Surely SOMETHING must happen to stop it….


Just to add a note to Ken. My calculations were based on the current daily case figure of 50000, and two 14 day doublings.

The deaths were on the basis of currently 50 per day, based on 10000 cases a day28 days ago, and then extrapolated from the two 14 day doublings.

You can’t run a country if it’s locked down.

[Gill W]

Bob, at this point, letting the virus rip or locking us down completely, we are stuffed either way

[screwy]

Tom O’Connor died .RIP.
A true comic not like today’s crap.

[Onelife]

Now why hasn’t that come as any surprise…the man has poor judgment and lacks leadership.

Shouldn't be too long before we see a leadership challenge, and sooner the better in my book.

Wash your mouth out!! Don't you know this hero got brexit done? Onwards to victory, etc.

He certainly steered it in the right direction, so on those grounds I’m happy for him to work out his notice…is that a fair compromise?

[Mervyn and Trish]

Tom O’Connor died .RIP.
A true comic not like today’s crap.

Yes very sad. Met him in a lift on a cruise. Real gent.

[Quizzical Bob]

Bob, at this point, letting the virus rip or locking us down completely, we are stuffed either way

Not necessarily. If we continue with lockdown then we are stuffed for certain. ‘Letting it rip’ won’t be as bad as you fear. If you’re worried about the numbers then either ignore them or examine them more closely. There is a surge of positives caused by men in their early twenties, thought to have been caused by the football tournament.

There are widespread reports that the lateral flow tests are giving false positives. Britain uses the one developed by Innova and produced for them in China. We have committed over £3bn to buying them yet the American FDA advises against their use and tells us to trash them.

The only figure that matters is the number of deaths. This pandemic will not be over until sufficient numbers have either been vaccinated or infected. Lockdown merely spreads it out longer and suppresses the peak somewhat. The original intention was to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed. That is now not going to happen.

Gabriel Pogrund in the Sunday Times tested positive all six times that he used a lateral flow test yet all three PCR tests taken contemporaneously, which are regarded as the gold standard, came back negative. My accountant’s wife has had a similar experience and her employer has told her that from now on she must only use a PCR test.

[oldbluefox]

I tend to agree with Bob. We cannot continue with lockdown after lockdown especially since we now have the majority of the population who have been vaccinated. There are still many who have not been vaccinated for various reasons but they are the ones who will be running the risk of the virus. There is evidence that there are plentiful supplies of the vaccine but people are not coming forward for vaccination. Nobody can force them against their will but that seems to be where the majority of the cases lie at the moment especially amongst the 18 to 34 year olds. They seem to be the ones who are most relaxed about the dangers and are suffering the consequences.
The success of the vaccine lies in the number of deaths but similarly this is not entirely accurate since some of those who are dying with Covid have underlying medical conditions so is Covid merely a contributing factor in their death or the prime cause?
I remain sanguine about the figures but, as Boris and Chris Whitty have both said, we should exercise caution. Seems sensible enough to me.