Sport of Kings

[Portsmouth]

Coming up very soon to two of the major Classics in horse racing....The Epsom Derby & Oaks for 3 yr olds.
Maybe not everyone is a fan of horse racing but for those who take an interest in some of the bigger races then you might like to make a comment ( who knows I might be the only one )

A P O'Brien has won the last two Derbys and hopes to win a 3rd in a row with Delacroix ( fav ) and has about 3 others also in the race.....The Lion in Winter, Lambourn ( should do the distance and has improved ) & Puppet Master ( not rated as highly as the others )
Out of his horses I prefer The Lion in Winter but not sure he will stay & I quite like Pride of Arras who beat him in May but has had only had two races.
Ruling Court should also not be ruled out ....a classy horse but will he stay ?
I've heard that Damysus is laid back & well balanced and trainer Gosden thinks he will go well.

O'Brien has Minnie Hauk & Whirl running for him in Fridays Oaks and hopes to beat the favourite Desert Flower, so he could end up being winning trainer of both the Oaks and Derby this year.
Don't write off Revoir for the Oaks as she ran a bit green in her last race

[Mervyn and Trish]

Keefie will be along shortly to give his tips. Then at least we'll know which ones to avoid

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, fantastic idea for a new thread... and I can fully understand why you have called it “Sport of Kings” (that bunch of freeloaders don’t pay to get into any fee-paying event).

As I have already mentioned I don’t generally bet on the classic races, come to that I don’t bet in the Group races either…I see them more as a racing spectacle rather than a betting proposition. I will however be watching with interest and fully expect the favourites in both of the Oaks and Derby to enter racings Hall of Fame.

Prior to the two days of racing excellence, I will be looking to Ripon in the hope that “Overlooked” – Ripon, Wed, 7.22 can break a fifteen run of consecutive defeats…. My £20 win says it can, despite what Sir Merv thinks of my tipping prowess.

[Portsmouth]

Onelife, I have to say a run of losing 15 in a row ....is not that good ( soon to be 16 in a row ?? )
However sometimes you see something in horses that others miss so I always take note of the selections you suggest.......
but in the case of " Overlooked " ...I'm scratching my head about why you would select this horse that has never had a win (or even come second )......could it be that the last few races, it's been running on A/W tracks and at Ripon it's going to be on the turf so you think it will perform better ?

I had some time to play with and looked up about the trainer......Wow what an amazing comeback after coming off her horse on the gallops in 2022, nearly died, had part of her scull removed, had to learn how to use a knife & folk again etc.
Now back to doing what she loves best.....also note she bought Overlooked so it's her horse.

[Portsmouth]

The Derby on Saturday is being run In Honour Of His Highness Aga Khan who was a big fan of British racing
Midak ( French horse ) unbeaten in 3 races is now supplemented ( £75,000 ) and will run in the Aga Khans silks
does look interesting and is about 16/1 if you fancy a bet.

Another horse supplemented for the Derby is New Ground & his sire New Bay was the winner of the French Derby 2015

The owners must think they have a bit of a chance if they pay that extra to enter the race wouldn't you think ?

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, with regard to the chances of “Overlooked” tomorrow I’m working on the principle that most handicappers do eventually find themselves in the winner’s enclosure. From a punters perspective the question is when will this will this happen? So with this in mind, and taking into consideration the trainers win to lose strike rate of 17% which is better than average especially considering the number of horses she has in her stable, combine this with a good jockey booking, a reasonable draw (7) (on a track that has a notably draw bias) I can see this horse running a big race. Whilst I agree his form figures are less than encouraging his recent runs have showed some improvement, so with its current price hovering around 16/1, I think there is value to be had in what looks a weak race on paper. It will be interesting to see if there is money for it tomorrow, either way I shall be staking £20 but may do £15-win £5 place if it remains at those odds….

With regard to the Derby, I have taken a look at “Midak” (last three runs) and as you rightly say, horses that are supplemented tend to come with the reassurance that both trainer and owner feel their horse can be competitive even in a race that is notoriously difficult to win.

My thoughts on the horses’ chances are that it looks a relentless galloper and should stay the distance, however, I’m not convinced that the opposition he has beaten are of a calibre that he will be meeting on Saturday. If I were to be having a bet the three at the head of the market look better propositions to me, that being said, you have a great understanding of breeding and such so perhaps it is one that shouldn’t be “Overlooked”

[Onelife]

HI Pompy, just checked out the other horse you mentioned “Grounded”. Looking at its recent runs I would say he has as much chance of handling the undulations of Epsom as I has peddling up the side of Mount Everest. The horse looks an awkward ride to say the least and won’t handle the downhill run to Tattenham Corner. imo

[Portsmouth]

I would say he has as much chance of handling the undulations of Epsom as I has peddling up the side of Mount Everest.

That's so funny Loved the comparison.....made me laugh so definitely one to avoid.

I am thinking of having a small bet on a huge outsider Al Wasl Storm If you go by his rating, he shouldn't have a chance !.... but his owner Ahmad Al Shaikh has had some big outsiders in the Derby before like Khalifa Sat 50/1 in 2020
Other big outsiders coming 2nd were Hoo Ya Mal 150/1, so anything is possible.
He was sold as a foal for only 7000 euros and his sire Affinisea produced Only by Night who came second in the Arkle at the Cheltenham festival this year so you'd have thought he would race over jumps but now he's going for glory in the Derby

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, as I have said in the past, I never let the price of a horse put me off backing it, however in the case of “Al Wasel Storm” I hope you won’t be wagering more than 50p ew…that’s not to say miracles don’t happen of course...I'll see you at the top of Mount Everest

I note “Overlooked” has been backed into 2nd fav

[Onelife]

Bloody hell Pompy, have you gone and put that spare £50,000 on “Overlooked”?
It’s now Fav in places.

Wish me luck I’m just off to the bookies

[Portsmouth]

I understand now why you went for Overlooked, I thought you'd bet on him when he went down to 7/1 but looks like you'll have a bet albeit with shorter odds. I'll be looking at the results hopefully he'll get there

As for Al Wasl Storm, think I'll be putting a £1 e/way and hope he gets 2nd or 3rd and hopefully he'll stay at 100/1

[Onelife]

Well, the only thing I can take from “overlooked” race is that I wasn’t the only one who thought it was primed to be thereabouts, it actually finished 5th of the 13 runners, so with a bit of imagination you could say it ran up to that level. Well, that’s another £20 in the satchel for “Fred’s” next cruise…. Oh! and on that note, I’ve booked one of them for myself today.

You’ve gota keep smiling through the pain…apologies to anyone followed my tip.

[Onelife]

I’ve just had a chance to see the replay and on that running I think Overlooked is one to keep on the right side of. He actually ran a good race other than he ran a bit too freely in the first three furlongs… and as a consequence didn’t last home. Given that I’ll be backing him next time out, especially if it runs over 7f

Come on my son!

[Portsmouth]

I also saw the replay and think he was just a bit unlucky not to have been 4th. Only beaten by a nk by Jez Bomb

Also I notice that his last 5 races have each been with a different jockey....I think having a jockey that's ridden him before might be of benefit.

[Onelife]

Yes’, I agree, he doesn’t seem a complicated horse but he is one that needs everything to fall right, and having a jockey that knows him would, I believe, be an advantage.
I know it’s difficult to talk potential having 16 duck eggs to his name but I do think there are wins to be had with this horse.

I’m keeping the faith.

What do you think to “Desert Flower’s” chances in the Oaks on Fri…. I wasn’t looking any further than her for the honours but the step up in distance must be a concern having looked at its pedigree?

[Portsmouth]

What do you think to “Desert Flower’s” chances in the Oaks on Fri…. I wasn’t looking any further than her for the honours but the step up in distance must be a concern having looked at its pedigree?

If you go by breeding, her sire Night of Thunder was a 10 furlong horse at best so yes I think there are concerns however the trainer thinks that she is good enough and jockey W Buick is also confident she will win. If the going changes to soft that might mean a bit more stamina is needed. Kieron Fallon also thinks she will win but I'm still not sure.

I quite like Revoir from her breeding, she has the stamina but does she have the class and also ran a bit green in her last race. Out of the A P O'Brien horses I like the choice of Ryan Moore on Minnie Hauk

I think I might go for a 20p Patent, Yankee or lucky 15 bet and see what happens

[Onelife]

I concur with all you have said, it is indeed going to be an interesting race with a lot of unanswered questions to be asked. I think I might follow your lead and have a Lucky 15 for a bit of interest, with this in mind I will be sticking with Desert Flower, but like you I will be keeping my eye on what the weather does to the going…it’s been peeing down here in the beautiful Shropshire countryside.

I’ll post my Lucky 15 selections before the off.

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, I’ve thrown theses together in a lucky 15 for a bit of interest tomorrow…

1.30 Franisco’s Piece
3.15 Botanical
4.0 Desert Flower
4.35 EBT’s Guard

I shall also be having £5 on Rhoscolyn 5.10

[Portsmouth]

A pretty good selection that hopefully will give you something back.....I'm not sure about Franisco's Piece but at 16/1 if it does the business then that will be a great start. I think all the other choices are good but my only concern about Franisco's Place is that this will be his first time over 6 furlongs + his sire Mayson was a good sprinter 5 & 6 furlongs, if you go by the breeding,
You've obviously seen something I've missed so hope he does well
I won't be betting on the 1:30 but if i was I'd be taking a chance on Saqqara Sands

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, I’m not sure about Franisco's Piece either but I’ve put it in my Lucky 15 for precisely the reason you have stated…with the other three at much shorter odds I will need a bigger priced winner to make the bet worthwhile. Trainer has stated that there is a lot more to come from this horse, so I’m betting more in hope than expectation.

The one I do fancy is Democracy Dilemma which runs in the 2.45 Epsom Sat…it normally blasts out from the gates and will be hard to pull back on what is the fastest 5f in the world.

[Portsmouth]

I thought maybe a small amount for a Patent on the two favourites not that I'd get much back at the odds they are but for the interest...
Desert Flower ......Oaks
Ruling Court.........Derby
Ruling Court.........Irish Derby 29th June 10/1
if Ruling court fails to stay I notice he's entered for the Coral-Eclipse in July with the shorter distance 1mile 1 furlong
but he will be against Field of Gold & French runner Sosie.

I'll get back about any other choices but I also like Pride of Arras...
Going to reduce my bet on Al Wasl Storm to 50p e/way as suggested by Onelife

[Portsmouth]

going for Rising Empire 14:05 Ancient Wisdom 14:40 Elwateen (the oaks) Stanage 17:10

[Onelife]

Well, did she didn’t she stay? I think she stayed the distance but hated the course.

You were right about A.O O’Brien three…Minnie Hauk being the one you put up against his other two runners.

[Portsmouth]

Well, did she didn’t she stay? I think she stayed the distance but hated the course.

Also the ground hadn't dried enough ( I mentioned earlier about soft ground ) it was tacky according to trainer.
He's now talking about taking her to the Yorkshire Oaks ( same distance ) I think she will be best at 10 furlongs.

In the end I went for a simple 20p Patent bet with the first 3 horses mentioned....Well at least I didn't lose much
That was lunchtime when I made that bet & I was in a real rush so I just made that bet & left quickly.

Just after 3:30 was near a different bookies and realised I still hadn't made that anti-post bet with Desert Flower & Ruling Court ....so I dived in, filled out the win only Patent slip. Long story short and waiting whilst he insisted on finding out the prices and then about 8 mins before the start he told me I couldn't have Ruling Court again ( for the Irish Derby ) as they don't give prices that far ahead just about 4/5 days before the race and they have to protect themselves because the price will go down if Ruling Court wins the Derby......I mean is this guy talking B*****ks ?( you know what I mean )...I thought the whole point of betting anti post is to get a better price. So I gave up at that point and just as well because as we now know Desert Flower didn't win.

I did get my bet on Al Wasl Storm e/way at 150/1 just in case the unbelievable happens and he gets a place

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, I can understand your frustration but in truth it’s not that unusual for bookies not to cover every big race ante-post. As you say some bookies have put up ante-post prices on that particular race… such as Paddy Power, but some will be waiting the outcome of today’s Derby before marking up a price. I may be wrong but you may well be thankful that your bet wasn’t taken as I doubt many that are entered up for the Irish Derby won’t actually run, as is the case today with many running in today’s Derby. With only 21 days between the races many trainers won’t take the chance of turning around their horses in such a short period of time, with that being the case you would have blown your money. I have placed a few ante -post bets over the years but I tend now to only go down that line if the bookie is going NRNB (None runner no bet) which only happens a couple of weeks prior to the race.

I’m not having a bet in todays Derby, especially as there is uncertainty about what the going is going to be…. if I were to have a bet then “Delacroix” would be carrying my money.

My bets today are...

Democracy Dilemma… Epsom 2.45 £15 win


50p win Lucky 15

Ruby’s Profit… Epsom 2.10
Democracy Dillemma… Epsom 2.45
Two Tribes… Doncaster 7.45
Sixcor… Muss’B 1.20