Current Affairs

[Stephen]

Everyone else can do what they want, but if I still feel the need to wear a mask then I will. Time will tell if all the opinions on here are right………or not.

[oldbluefox]

I agree with Stephen. Whatever Boris decides I will continue to do pretty much the same as I have always done and will continue the same precautions.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Me too

[Manoverboard]

Two more here

Football has been mentioned a few times but as it is in the open air I believe that I would feel safer in the stadium than in a pub and especially so on a Saturday evening.

[Gill W]

Whatever, we cannot carry on in lockdown and we just have to roll with the outcome. We gave it our best shot with the most severe lockdown in the world and ruined countless businesses and all that we have done is to spread out the hump in infections. Still, we saved the NHS, didn’t we?

Meanwhile parts of the rest of the world get back to normal without all the fuss.

We’re not in lockdown.

I still don’t understand why rolling with it means chucking all restrictions out of the window. Surely it would be best to have some public health measures to enable us all to live near normal, rather than throwing the baby out with the bath water and have a few people kid themselves that a December 2019 is possible.

Countries that live near normally took early action and have a largely compliant, educated population

Apart from QB Barney and maybe myself, most of you seem not to be able to appreciate the changed situation that the vaccine and our rapid roll out has produced.

If the media reports about our economy being the hardest hit among major G7 countries are true, then we definitely need to press the economic accelerator soon, if we are to ensure our recovery potential is maximised.

I think everyone appreciates the huge difference that the vaccine has made. Perhaps you, QB and Barney haven’t appreciated the difference the the Delta variant has made. The delta variant is more transmissible (Alpha R was 4 - 5 and Delta R is 7 - 8) and has some vaccine escape (depending on what report you read, vaccine efficacy is between 60% to 90% against Delta). The vaccine is great, but is not the magic silver bullet to make this all go away.

As I keep saying, an economy can’t thrive if there is a highly infectious virus ripping through the population.

Two more here

Football has been mentioned a few times but as it is in the open air I believe that I would feel safer in the stadium than in a pub and especially so on a Saturday evening.

Another two here - we’re carrying on as we are doing now

Re watching football - I think watching it in the pub with a load of chanting drunks will be the super spreading events

[Quizzical Bob]

In reply to Gill W, “We’re not in lockdown”

Oh really? England is still in Step 3

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-co ... -cannot-do

There is a long list of restrictions in there, particularly the one about meeting indoors where the Rule of Six still applies which, for example, prohibits family gatherings for special events.

The Delta variant is more transmissible but this is more than offset by the widespread vaccinations which reduce the infectability of the recipient many times. Even if the infectee does succumb then they are much less likely to suffer in any serious way. Hospitalisations are now much shorter than they were this time last year, typically only two or three nights.

Widespread vaccination has had the effect of dampening the ground in the path of a spreading bushfire.

[oldbluefox]

Has Boris actually said he is "chucking all restrictions out of the window"? I thought he was still keeping an eye on the data before deciding what the next step will be.
Whatever he decides I already know what we will be doing. As Gill says" countries that live near normally took early action and have a largely compliant, educated population". Compliancy has been a major issue in our population from the very start. Some of the people I know have more bubbles than an Aero bar.

[towny44]

Gill, I think, if you actually listen to what Boris is saying, that it is only the legal sanctions that the govt are lifting. Boris, Whitty and Valance have all said that we should continue to exercise caution in how we enjoy these new freedoms. Granted some will abuse it, but the fast majority will continue to be careful, and this will help to prevent your oft predicted doomsday scenario.

[Manoverboard]

There are, frequently, two main Convid concerns within this Forum ... one is health and the other is finance. The arguments presented do seem to reflect that divide

[towny44]

There are, frequently, two main Convid concerns within this Forum ... one is health and the other is finance. The arguments presented do seem to reflect that divide

Not so Moby, I am also deeply worried about the health effects of covid other than the disease itself including long covid. The effect of lockdown on many peoples mental health, and the devastating impact that the concentration on covid care has had on many areas, cancer, heart conditions and strokes are just the tip of a massive iceberg of delayed treatments that are going to impact the nations health for years, and it is probably the massive financial demands on the NHS that these will have, that makes kick starting our economy so important.

[david63]

Boris is saying, that it is only the legal sanctions that the govt are lifting. Boris, Whitty and Valance have all said that we should continue to exercise caution in how we enjoy these new freedoms

The one bit that everyone, especially the media, have chosen to ignore is that Boris said in his press statement last Monday that there would be "guidance issued" about mask wearing and social distancing. This I took to mean than in the next week, assuming that all the legal restrictions are lifted from the 19th July, we will be advised on where and when to wear a mask but these will not be legally enforceable.

[Manoverboard]

Not so Moby ...

It was my intention only to reflect Forum Member concerns, some focus on health and others on money but very few focus on both.

[Stephen]

Not so Moby ...

It was my intention only to reflect Forum Member concerns, some focus on health and others on money but very few focus on both.

I did have the same thought, that some appear to be putting profit before health, but I thought I wouldn’t say anything. Oh, I just did

[towny44]

Not so Moby ...

It was my intention only to reflect Forum Member concerns, some focus on health and others on money but very few focus on both.

I did have the same thought, that some appear to be putting profit before health, but I thought I wouldn’t say anything. Oh, I just did

As I thought I had explained in my post, health and profit (assuming you mean the country's profit) are not either or options. Without a robust economy it would be impossible to have even a poor health service, and as a first world country we need and deserve a high quality health service.

[Stephen]

And there you go.

[Gill W]

In reply to Gill W, “We’re not in lockdown”

Oh really? England is still in Step 3

This isn't lockdown. Since hospitality opened up in April I've spent more time in Cafes, pubs and restaurants than I ever did before. Partly to make up for lost time and partly to help the economy. However, if I perceive that the level of virus gets high locally and / or see that there are too many unmasked people around I'll simply stay home more. Just because an arbitrary date for 'the end' has been set, it doesn't mean everyone is going to suddenly act like it over. It will be the reverse for lot of people - they'll use their personal judgement and keep away from shops, hospitality and other crowded place. This seems to be a widely held sentiment.

Has Boris actually said he is "chucking all restrictions out of the window"? I thought he was still keeping an eye on the data before deciding what the next step will be.

In the briefing on Monday, he still sounded very bullish about the 19th July. He actually said 'if we can't reopen our society in the next few weeks when we will be helped by summer and the school holidays, then we must ask ourselves when will we be able to return to normal'. To my mind that seems like he's still fairly certain 19th July is going to be his 'terminus date' and he's also implying that it's going to be a return to normal.

The data was bad last Monday, and he still said this, so I can't help thinking it's his desired course of action.

In my earlier post I did ponder whether he'll reverse ferret, but I tend to doubt it.

He's a populist, and he'll do what he thinks people want. i.e Freedom Day Also, the announcement is due on Monday. If England win at the Euros he won't want to dampen the mood by saying restrictions will remain in force. If England lose, he won't want to upset people even more by saying freedom day is off.

Ironically, polls indicate that most people would prefer to still have some rules in force

There are, frequently, two main Convid concerns within this Forum ... one is health and the other is finance. The arguments presented do seem to reflect that divide

I'm not sure it's that binary.

I spent my working life in banking so I do understand the financial aspect. In a genuine 'living with it' scenario both health and economy need to be given even weight.

But I still maintain that the economy can't fully flourish with an out of control virus on the lose. It depresses consumer demand and gives employers staffing problems, amongst other issues.

Mind you, I have no answers for the current situation. We have got to the unfortunate point where, whatever happens next, both health and economy will suffer even more.

[oldbluefox]

Gill, I think you read too much into what Boris says but it's what he doesn't say which is important. He has not actually said he is doing away with all restrictions. I predict there will be easing of restrictions but some precautions will remain in place. We will wait and see who is right and who has called it wrong. I'd be very surprised if as you say he "chucks all restrictions out of the window".

[Manoverboard]

My point was obviously poorly made ...

I was trying to suggest that some, take QB as an example perhaps, put the emphasis of the Covid impact on their business rather than the extent to which one is vulnerable health wise. Others including me mention the health risks regularly but rarely, if at all, mention money.

Both were intended to be at the personal level rather than ' A state of the Nation ' proclamation.

[Kendhni]

It was my intention only to reflect Forum Member concerns, some focus on health and others on money but very few focus on both.

Well I guess I would be one of the 'few' then that has focussed on both - having argued that priority for vaccines should have been given in such a way as to get the economy back up and running (so what if a few old people had to wait an extra 4-8 weeks for a vaccine). I have also made the point that we have fired all our big guns and there is nothing left in the arsenal - although latest research shows that there may be some additional hope.

Given that the Pfizer and Oxford AZ vaccine are showing as little as 10% efficacy against variants like delta (still waiting to hear about efficacy against Lambda) we have to be careful and as I have said we need to open up in a controlled and reversible manner.

I know the media is programming people to rant on about mental health issues in people not being able to go into their place of work, but in a few weeks it will be spinning up the stories about mental health issues of those being forced back into offices when they could just as easily work from home.

The cynic in me says that the governments current proclamations are nothing more than an attempt at blame shifting from the government to individuals and society as a whole. At the minute I hear a lot of statements and sound bites but no real plan or planning behind them.

[Gill W]

Gill, I think you read too much into what Boris says but it's what he doesn't say which is important. He has not actually said he is doing away with all restrictions. I predict there will be easing of restrictions but some precautions will remain in place. We will wait and see who is right and who has called it wrong. I'd be very surprised if as you say he "chucks all restrictions out of the window".

Actually, I read very little into what Johnson says, as he says what is expedient in the moment, to get him through to the next crisis. Which is usually the next day.!

However, I stand by what I said - as a populist, he's raised expectations - has he got it in himself to say that 19th July isn't quite Freedom Day after all.

I expect we'll get some idea late this evening, when the leaks are released to the Sunday papers

[oldbluefox]

We wait and see if he, as you say, chucks all restrictions out of the window, or whether it will be a partial relaxation of the regulations. All or nothing. We will see.

[Kendhni]

I expect we'll get some idea late this evening, when the leaks are released to the Sunday papers

I suspect these 'leaks' are deliberate to allow Johnson to gauge public opinion. Many who know Johnson have said he fears not being popular so rather than creating a plan and governing this country he simply reacts to whoever shouts the loudest.

[Quizzical Bob]

It was my intention only to reflect Forum Member concerns, some focus on health and others on money but very few focus on both.

Well I guess I would be one of the 'few' then that has focussed on both - having argued that priority for vaccines should have been given in such a way as to get the economy back up and running (so what if a few old people had to wait an extra 4-8 weeks for a vaccine). I have also made the point that we have fired all our big guns and there is nothing left in the arsenal - although latest research shows that there may be some additional hope.

Given that the Pfizer and Oxford AZ vaccine are showing as little as 10% efficacy against variants like delta (still waiting to hear about efficacy against Lambda) we have to be careful and as I have said we need to open up in a controlled and reversible manner.

I know the media is programming people to rant on about mental health issues in people not being able to go into their place of work, but in a few weeks it will be spinning up the stories about mental health issues of those being forced back into offices when they could just as easily work from home.

The cynic in me says that the governments current proclamations are nothing more than an attempt at blame shifting from the government to individuals and society as a whole. At the minute I hear a lot of statements and sound bites but no real plan or planning behind them.

Where are you getting this figure of 10% from Ken? From the reports that I can find the vaccines are just as effective against the Delta variant as all the others.

[Quizzical Bob]

My point was obviously poorly made ...

I was trying to suggest that some, take QB as an example perhaps, put the emphasis of the Covid impact on their business rather than the extent to which one is vulnerable health wise. Others including me mention the health risks regularly but rarely, if at all, mention money.

Both were intended to be at the personal level rather than ' A state of the Nation ' proclamation.

Not especially my business although it has been badly effected and I have just had to make my staff redundant but rather other businesses who have suffered terribly. I suppose my concern goes back to the times when I was head of our local Chamber of Commerce and had to represent a wide range of interests.

It’s a question of balance. In these harrowing times nobody is even thinking about profits. It’s a fight for survival and there is a mountain of debt to be paid back.

[Kendhni]

Sorry to hear that QB, it is always very hard to make someone redundant. Out of interest what would you suggest for getting this country back up and running again? I doubt if we will ever return to the status quo - I would actually consider that a step backwards, we are now in a new world with new requirements and new/better possibilities.

I suspect Johnson will do another of his U-turns and start back pedalling on some of the statements he and Javid have made (he will have no choice if he is to claim he is following scientific advice) - I am thinking that social distancing and mask wearing in certain public places (e.g. transport) will continue for a little while longer (or during rises of infection rate), possibly limited patronage and table service only in bars as well?